NCR Atleos offers attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 8.3x and PEG of 0.16, supported by exceptional free cash flow conversion at 290% of net income and a strong ROE of 51%, though negative price momentum and deteriorating analyst estimate revisions of -34.4% over 30 days create meaningful near-term headwinds.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Low Peg→Stable
- Geographic Concentration Headwind→Stable
- Exceptional Fcf And Roe Quality→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside United States (55.0%).
NCR Atleos provides ATM software, hardware, and managed services to financial institutions and retailers across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network (including the Allpoint surcharge-free network of ~78,000 terminals), and T&T. In 2025, 55% of revenue came from outside... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside United States (55.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About NCR Atleos Corporation
About NCR Atleos Corporation
NCR Atleos generated 55% of revenue internationally in 2025, operating ATM networks in 13 countries and servicing ATMs in 65 countries, with a footprint of approximately 78,000 self-service banking terminal locations including the Allpoint network. The company spent $70 million on research and development in 2025, down from $80 million in 2023, while transitioning its revenue mix toward recurring software and services under its ATM as a Service model. Three operating segments—Self-Service Banking, Network, and Telecommunications & Technology—anchor the business.
NCR Atleos earns revenue through hardware sales (ATMs, ITMs, cash dispensers), per-transaction surcharge and interchange fees on company-owned ATMs, managed services fees, and recurring software subscriptions under multi-year contracts. The Self-Service Banking segment sells ATM hardware and software to financial institutions and provides installation, maintenance, and managed services; the Network segment enables banks, credit unions, fintechs, and neobanks to access its ATM network including Allpoint, earning transaction fees and bank-branding fees; and the T&T segment provides managed network and infrastructure services to enterprise clients. Atleos places company-owned ATMs at major retailers including Circle K, Costco, CVS, Kroger, and Walgreens under long-term contracts. The company competes directly with Fiserv, Euronet, Brink's Company, Hyosung, and Diebold Nixdorf for software, services, and hardware.
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NCR Atleos's competitive position may be pressured from two directions. On the hardware and services front, Diebold Nixdorf and Hyosung compete directly, while Fiserv and Euronet challenge in managed services and payments processing. The 10-K also notes that vertically integrated competitors—such as expanded cash-in-transit providers—could offer bundled product and service offerings that displace Atleos's modular approach. On the demand side, the proliferation of electronic payment methods, including contactless payments and mobile wallets such as Venmo, Zelle, and Square's Cash App, could reduce cash usage and ultimately transaction volumes at ATMs over time.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From NCR Atleos Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — NCR Atleos Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS NCR ATLEOS ($NATL) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS NCR Atleos (NYSE:NATL) Beats Q1 CY2026 Sales Expectations - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS NCR Atleos (NATL) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NATL) NCR Atleos Corporation Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $0.65 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.87 - marketscr — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS NCR Atleos: Q1 Earnings Snapshot - KING5.com — KING5.com neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicoutside United States55%10-K Item 1: 'in 2025, we generated 55% of our revenue outside of the United States'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside United States (55.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $43.41. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.79 (-1.8% upside). Prior stop was $43.41. Stop-loss: $43.41.
Concentration risk — Geographic: outside United States (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.4): -1.5.
NCR Atleos Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover NATL with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $50.
What does NCR Atleos Corporation do?NCR Atleos provides ATM software, hardware, and managed services to financial institutions and retailers across three...
NCR Atleos provides ATM software, hardware, and managed services to financial institutions and retailers across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network (including the Allpoint surcharge-free network of ~78,000 terminals), and T&T. In 2025, 55% of revenue came from outside the United States across operations in 65 countries. Revenue is earned through per-transaction fees, recurring software subscriptions, and managed services contracts.