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NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (outside United States) (55.0%).

NCR Atleos provides ATM and ITM self-directed banking solutions globally to financial institutions, retailers, and consumers, including its Allpoint surcharge-free network (~78,000 terminal locations). Revenue comes from contracted software, services, hardware, and... Read more

$44.27+2.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#55 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $42.69Target $45.36(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$50.27+13.5%3 analysts
$45.36our TP
$44.27price
$50.27mean
$50

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (outside United States) (55.0%). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (outside United States) (55.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 7.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.8
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn3.7%
ROE51.8%
Rev Growth4.0%
Beta0.78
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C6.00bearish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$25-43.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational revenue (outside United States)55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, the percentage of our revenue from outside of the United States was 55%'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.5
Erm
2.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings History
6.7
Strong earnings: 3B/1MEarnings in 6 days

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
1.1
Rsi
5.5
Obv
6.0
Ma Position
6.0
Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.0
Quality Rank
6.5
Value Rank
8.0
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.15Resistance $46.29

Price Targets

$43
$45
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NATL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (outside United States) (55.0%). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $42.69. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the NATL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.36 (+2.5% upside). Prior stop was $42.69. Stop-loss: $42.69.

What are the risks of investing in NATL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (outside United States) (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.4): -1.5.

Is NATL overvalued or undervalued?

NCR Atleos Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NATL?

11 analysts cover NATL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $50.

What does NCR Atleos Corporation do?NCR Atleos provides ATM and ITM self-directed banking solutions globally to financial institutions, retailers, and...

NCR Atleos provides ATM and ITM self-directed banking solutions globally to financial institutions, retailers, and consumers, including its Allpoint surcharge-free network (~78,000 terminal locations). Revenue comes from contracted software, services, hardware, and ATM-as-a-Service offerings. Separated from NCR Corporation as an independent public company in October 2023.

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