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NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.17 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%).

NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the Allpoint surcharge-free network, ATM-as-a-Service, and managed services across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network, and T&T. Revenue is earned through... Read more

$45.170.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#58 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield15.02%
Stop $43.33Target $45.19(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$50.27+11.3%3 analysts
$45.19our TP
$45.17price
$50.27mean
$50

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.17 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — NCR Atleos Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.8
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE50.7%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta0.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational (outside United States)55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, the percentage of our revenue from outside of the United States was 55%'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.42Resistance $46.11

Price Targets

$43
$45
A.Upside+0.0%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NATL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.17 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $43.33. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the NATL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.19 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $43.33. Stop-loss: $43.33.

What are the risks of investing in NATL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is NATL overvalued or undervalued?

NCR Atleos Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.8 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NATL?

11 analysts cover NATL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $50.

What does NCR Atleos Corporation do?NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the...

NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the Allpoint surcharge-free network, ATM-as-a-Service, and managed services across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network, and T&T. Revenue is earned through per-transaction fees, recurring subscription contracts, and managed service arrangements; 55% of 2025 revenue came from outside the United States.

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