Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
NATL · Why this verdict
Why NCR Atleos (NATL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 8.3x and PEG ratio of 0.16, the stock appears attractively priced relative to its growth expectations, offering a margin of safety against earnings disappointment. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E multiple expands toward the peer median as the growth profile becomes more widely recognized over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst estimates have fallen 34.4% over 30 days, meaning the apparent cheapness may reflect a genuine deterioration in the earnings trajectory rather than mispricing. | ||
With 55% of revenue sourced outside the United States, the company faces meaningful currency and geopolitical risk that can compress reported earnings during periods of dollar strength or regional instability. Bear case | International revenue mix stabilizes or shifts toward lower-risk geographies, reducing concentration penalty over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic diversification can also be a strength, providing multiple growth vectors that domestic-only peers lack. | ||
The company converts earnings to free cash flow at 290% of net income while generating a 51% return on equity, indicating a capital-efficient business that produces substantial cash relative to reported profits. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow yield and return on equity remain above 40% over the next 12 months, validating the capital efficiency thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality scores show no competitive moat, suggesting the high returns may not be durable and could erode as competition intensifies. | ||
The stock's RSI of 30 sits at oversold levels while analyst estimate revisions have declined 34.4% over 30 days, reflecting a combination of weak price momentum and negative forward earnings sentiment. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 4.5 and estimate revisions turn positive within the next 12 months as the earnings trajectory stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA low RSI can signal further distribution rather than a buying opportunity if the fundamental earnings decline continues. | ||
At a forward P/E of 8.3x and PEG ratio of 0.16, the stock appears attractively priced relative to its growth expectations, offering a margin of safety against earnings disappointment.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E multiple expands toward the peer median as the growth profile becomes more widely recognized over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst estimates have fallen 34.4% over 30 days, meaning the apparent cheapness may reflect a genuine deterioration in the earnings trajectory rather than mispricing.
With 55% of revenue sourced outside the United States, the company faces meaningful currency and geopolitical risk that can compress reported earnings during periods of dollar strength or regional instability.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue mix stabilizes or shifts toward lower-risk geographies, reducing concentration penalty over 12 months.
CounterGeographic diversification can also be a strength, providing multiple growth vectors that domestic-only peers lack.
The company converts earnings to free cash flow at 290% of net income while generating a 51% return on equity, indicating a capital-efficient business that produces substantial cash relative to reported profits.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow yield and return on equity remain above 40% over the next 12 months, validating the capital efficiency thesis.
CounterThe quality scores show no competitive moat, suggesting the high returns may not be durable and could erode as competition intensifies.
The stock's RSI of 30 sits at oversold levels while analyst estimate revisions have declined 34.4% over 30 days, reflecting a combination of weak price momentum and negative forward earnings sentiment.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 and estimate revisions turn positive within the next 12 months as the earnings trajectory stabilizes.
CounterA low RSI can signal further distribution rather than a buying opportunity if the fundamental earnings decline continues.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NCR Atleos offers attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 8.3x and PEG of 0.16, supported by exceptional free cash flow conversion at 290% of net income and a strong ROE of 51%, though negative price momentum and deteriorating analyst estimate revisions of -34.4% over 30 days create meaningful near-term headwinds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 51%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 290% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=2)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 9.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.43
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -34.4% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.83
Upside
-4.1%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.83 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Growth at 7.0, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Peer rank at 4.1, and Catalyst at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Fcf And Roe Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifAnalyst EPS estimate revisions decline more than 20% over any rolling 30-day period.
- P3Geographic Concentration Headwind
Trip ifInternational revenue share rises above 65% without a corresponding increase in hedging activity.
- P4Momentum And Sentiment Deterioration
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 2.5 or analyst estimate revisions fall below -50% over 30 days.