Mosaic Company presents a structurally challenged investment case: business quality is well below the minimum threshold, free cash flow is deeply negative, earnings are predominantly missing estimates, and a confirmed technical downtrend compounds the risk profile — the setup does not support a new position.
Thesis pillars
- Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Earnings Miss Dominated Record→Stable
- Geographic And Operational Concentration→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.13: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.49; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Mosaic mines and processes phosphate and potash crop nutrients across three segments: Phosphate (Florida and Louisiana plants), Potash (Saskatchewan and New Mexico mines), and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil). Revenue comes from selling DAP, MAP, potash, and animal feed ingredients... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.13: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.49; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and 8k serious 2.06. Suitability: speculative.
About Mosaic Company (The)
About Mosaic Company (The)
Mosaic produced approximately 6.3 million tonnes of concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and 8.8 million tonnes of potash in 2025, mining primarily in central Florida and Saskatchewan, Canada, with a 75% interest in the Miski Mayo phosphate rock mine in Peru. The company accounts for about 72% of North American annual concentrated phosphate output and 34% of North American potash output, serving buyers in approximately 40 countries, with 64% of 2025 net sales from international customers.
Mosaic sells DAP, MAP, MicroEssentials, and potash grades primarily at spot and index-linked prices to distributors, retailers, and farmers, with no disclosed long-term pricing mechanism that locks in a margin floor — exposing profitability to global fertilizer commodity cycles. Three raw material inputs drive phosphate production costs: sulfur (approximately 2.9 million long tons consumed in 2025, purchased from North American oil refiners, subject to volatile pricing and availability); ammonia (about 0.9 million tonnes consumed, one-third purchased spot, two-thirds via supply agreements or internal production at Faustina, Louisiana); and natural gas (17.1 million MM BTU combined across potash and ammonia production). In Canada, the Saskatchewan Potash Production Tax and a resource surcharge on mine sales add royalty costs. Canpotex, the potash export consortium, allocated Mosaic an entitlement of 35.9% of consortium sales in 2025. Mosaic Fertilizantes, with five phosphate rock mines and four chemical plants in Brazil, also serves as a distribution hub for South American customers.
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Mosaic's Florida phosphate operations carry a layered environmental liability profile: phosphogypsum stack systems at Florida and Louisiana facilities must comply simultaneously with FDEP process water management rules, U.S. EPA RCRA Consent Decrees, and Louisiana DEQ requirements. In April 2026, the company disclosed a $350–$400 million pre-tax impairment via Form 8-K tied to idling its Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex in Brazil. A separate social conflict risk exists at the Miski Mayo Mine in Peru, where protests against natural resource extraction have historically occurred and may affect the company's phosphate rock supply from that 75% interest.
See also: Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
From Mosaic Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Mosaic Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $26 — benzinga Jun 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Rothschild & Co Initiates Coverage On Mosaic with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $30 — benzinga Jun 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS 'Hormuz Reopening Seen Unleashing Pent-Up Gulf Grain Demand' - Bloomberg — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Intrepid Potash Appoints Former Mosaic Executive Jason Tremblay CFO, Effective Immediately — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS BMO Capital Maintains Outperform on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $31 — benzinga May 21, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational customers (outside U.S.)64%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we derived approximately 64% of our net sales from customers located outside of the U.S.'
- HIGHGeographicFlorida (phosphate mines)10-K Item 1: 'All of our wholly-owned phosphate mines and related mining operations in North America are located in central Florida.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-08Item 2.06MEDIUMOn April 8, 2026, Mosaic announced it will idle its Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex and related mining at the Patrocínio Complex in Brazil. Anticipated pre-tax book impact of $350–$400 million in Q1 2026, including $275–$300 million in asset impairment and writeoffs, with remainder from severance and idling costs.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.13: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.49; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $19.65. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $24.47 (+15.8% upside). Prior stop was $19.65. Stop-loss: $19.65.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (outside U.S.) (64.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida (phosphate mines); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
Mosaic Company (The) trades at a P/E of 150.9 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover MOS with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $27.
What does Mosaic Company (The) do?Mosaic mines and processes phosphate and potash crop nutrients across three segments: Phosphate (Florida and Louisiana...
Mosaic mines and processes phosphate and potash crop nutrients across three segments: Phosphate (Florida and Louisiana plants), Potash (Saskatchewan and New Mexico mines), and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil). Revenue comes from selling DAP, MAP, potash, and animal feed ingredients to distributors and farmers in approximately 40 countries. Mosaic accounts for about 72% of North American concentrated phosphate production and 34% of North American potash output.