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Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The (SMG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Sell if holding. At $58.08, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products in North America, operating through U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne (indoor/hydroponic), and Other (Canada) segments. Revenue flows through home centers, mass merchandisers, and warehouse clubs,... Read more

$58.08+11.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#5 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.30%
IncomeYield4.59%(5y avg 3.70%)Payout75.86%
Stop $54.32Target $64.38(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$74.00+27.4%6 analysts
$64.38our TP
$58.08price
$74.00mean
$80

Sell if holding. At $58.08, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.7Qual6.0Grw3.8Mom1.5Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer3.5Tech7.8Risk5.05.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.5
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE—
Rev Growth5.0%
Beta1.86
Dividend4.59%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.54bullish
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerHome Depot and Lowe's52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top two retail customers, The Home Depot and Lowe’s, together accounted for 52% of our fiscal 2025 net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
2.5
Value Rank
5.3

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.7
Revenue Growth
3.8
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $56.00Resistance $68.80

Price Targets

$54
$64
A.Upside+10.8%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $58.08, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $54.32. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.38 (+11.9% upside). Prior stop was $54.32. Stop-loss: $54.32.

What are the risks of investing in SMG?

Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak growth.

Is SMG overvalued or undervalued?

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMG?

11 analysts cover SMG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $74.

What does Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The do?Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products in North America, operating...

Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products in North America, operating through U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne (indoor/hydroponic), and Other (Canada) segments. Revenue flows through home centers, mass merchandisers, and warehouse clubs, with over 75% of annual North America consumer sales concentrated in Q2-Q3.

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