Scotts Miracle-Gro beat earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 12.9% and converts 372% of net income to free cash flow, but the stock has reached analyst price targets with essentially zero upside remaining, making the entry timing poor despite sound operational performance.
Thesis pillars
- Price At Analyst Target Zero Upside↓Deteriorating
- Positive Momentum Breakout↑Improving
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 25, 2025· older than 90 days
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The (SMG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $67.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
Scotts Miracle-Gro markets branded consumer lawn care (Scotts®, Turf Builder®), gardening (Miracle-Gro®), pest control (Ortho®, Tomcat®), and hydroponic supplies (Gavita®, General Hydroponics®) primarily in North America across its U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne, and Other (Canada)... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $67.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The
About Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The
Scotts Miracle-Gro markets consumer lawn and garden products across its U.S. Consumer (lawn fertilizer, grass seed, pest control), Hawthorne (hydroponic and indoor gardening), and Canada segments, with more than 75% of annual net sales occurring in the second and third fiscal quarters. Research and development spending totaled $34.8 million in fiscal 2025. The company employed approximately 5,200 associates as of September 30, 2025, with peak workforce reaching roughly 6,900 during the spring growing season.
Revenue flows primarily from branded product sales — under Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, Tomcat, and hydroponic brands including Gavita and General Hydroponics — through home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, hardware chains, nurseries, garden centers, and e-commerce platforms. The two largest retail customers, The Home Depot and Lowe's, together represented 52% of fiscal 2025 net sales; the company holds no long-term sales agreements with these retailers, and continued retail industry consolidation could further concentrate its customer base. Gross margin is exposed to raw material costs including urea, other fertilizer inputs, resins, diesel, and sphagnum peat; the company hedges certain commodities, particularly diesel and urea. An exclusive marketing agency agreement with Monsanto (a Bayer AG subsidiary) for U.S. distribution of Roundup consumer products provides an additional earnings stream. Primary named competitors include Spectrum Brands Holdings, Central Garden & Pet Company, and Hydrofarm Holdings Group.
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The Home Depot and Lowe's accounted for 52% of Scotts Miracle-Gro's fiscal 2025 net sales and 25% of outstanding accounts receivable as of September 30, 2025, with no long-term supply agreements in place. A loss of either retailer's business, a material inventory reduction by either partner, or financial deterioration at either could expose the company to a significant revenue shortfall. Separately, the Monsanto Roundup exclusive marketing agreement could terminate or experience a material business decline, which the 10-K characterizes as potentially costing a substantial source of future earnings and overhead expense absorption.
See also: Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
From Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The
Latest news
- NEWS ScottsMiracle-Gro Completes Acquisition of Black Kow to Broaden Leadership in Organic Gardening Solutions - Yahoo Financ — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Is Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE:SMG) in Focus as Its Fiscal Year Closes? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) Faces Margin Pressure From Rising Costs, Ariel Fund Says - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Set to Release Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) Fell in Q3 2026 Despite Improving Fundamentals, Madison Small Cap Fund Says - Yahoo — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:13Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $67.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $62.49. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $64.96 reached (−3.3% from $67.19); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $62.49. Stop-loss: $62.49.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate SMG, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $75.
What does Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The do?Scotts Miracle-Gro markets branded consumer lawn care (Scotts®, Turf Builder®), gardening (Miracle-Gro®), pest control...
Scotts Miracle-Gro markets branded consumer lawn care (Scotts®, Turf Builder®), gardening (Miracle-Gro®), pest control (Ortho®, Tomcat®), and hydroponic supplies (Gavita®, General Hydroponics®) primarily in North America across its U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne, and Other (Canada) segments. The Home Depot and Lowe's together represented 52% of fiscal 2025 net sales; the company also serves as exclusive U.S. marketing agent for Monsanto's consumer Roundup® products.