Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The (SMG) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Sell if holding. At $60.88, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%).
Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading US marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products (Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, Roundup) and a provider of indoor/hydroponic products via its Hawthorne segment. Home Depot and Lowe's together accounted for 52% of fiscal 2025 net sales.... Read more
Sell if holding. At $60.88, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerThe Home Depot and Lowe's52%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top two retail customers, The Home Depot and Lowe’s, together accounted for 52% of our fiscal 2025 net sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-01-29Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved amendment to Long-Term Incentive Plan at Jan 26, 2026 Annual Meeting, increasing authorized shares by 2.75M. Named executive officer equity award forms also described. No officer changes.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -3.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $60.88, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $57.22. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $64.38 (+5.5% upside). Prior stop was $57.22. Stop-loss: $57.22.
Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover SMG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $74.
What does Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The do?Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading US marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products (Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho,...
Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading US marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products (Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, Roundup) and a provider of indoor/hydroponic products via its Hawthorne segment. Home Depot and Lowe's together accounted for 52% of fiscal 2025 net sales. Scotts is the exclusive US marketing agent for Monsanto's consumer Roundup brand.