Skip to main content

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Wait for pullback to $64.13. At $70.91 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $64.13 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and... Read more

$70.91+6.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#3 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.67%
IncomeYield3.07%(5y avg 3.28%)Payout44.50%sustainable
Entry $64.13(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $59.59Target $73.26(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1Setup A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$81.40+14.8%20 analysts
$73.26our TP
$70.91price
$81.40mean
$61
$96

Wait for pullback to $64.13. At $70.91 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $64.13 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Nutrien Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.3%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.6
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$34.4B
EV/EBITDA8.5
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth19.0%
Beta1.09
Dividend3.07%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV40%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $68.14Resistance $77.74

Price Targets

$60
$64
$73
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $64.13. At $70.91 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $64.13 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $73.26 (+3.3%), stop $59.59 (−19.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.26 (+6.7% upside). Target $73.26 (+3.3%), stop $59.59 (−19.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $59.59.

What are the risks of investing in NTR?

Thin upside margin: 3.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is NTR overvalued or undervalued?

Nutrien Ltd. trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NTR?

27 analysts cover NTR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $81.

What does Nutrien Ltd. do?Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen,...

Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and financing services and solutions; and produces proprietary products, including proprietary crop nutrient, crop protection, and seed products. The Potash segment includes mining and processing of potash. The Nitrogen segment owns and operates ammonia production facilities that offers ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate (UAN), urea solutions, nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate, as well as environmentally smart nitrogen and ammonium sulfate. The Phosphate segment manufactures and sells solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers, phosphate feed, and purified phosphoric acid, which is used in feed and industrial products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

Related stocks: CF (CF Industries Holdings, Inc.) · ICL (ICL Group Ltd.) · CTVA (Corteva, Inc.) · MOS (Mosaic Company (The))