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CVR Partners, LP (UAN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $133.50: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Near 52-week high (3.6% away).

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States. The company offers ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate products. It serves agricultural and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007... Read more

$133.50+1.5% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#4 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
Stop $125.09Target $136.47(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $133.50: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Near 52-week high (3.6% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)-21.2
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA9.1
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE35.3%
Rev Growth-6.1%
Beta0.30
Dividend7.91%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.77bearish
IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -6.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $117.06Resistance $139.26

Price Targets

$125
$136
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts8
Consensus2.3/5
Avg Target

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UAN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $133.50: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $125.09. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the UAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.47 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $125.09. Stop-loss: $125.09.

What are the risks of investing in UAN?

Near 52-week high (3.6% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is UAN overvalued or undervalued?

CVR Partners, LP trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward -21.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UAN?

8 analysts cover UAN with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does CVR Partners, LP do?CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the...

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States. The company offers ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate products. It serves agricultural and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Sugar Land, Texas.

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