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UANCVR Partners, LPBuy Wait6.7·$112.02
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CVR Partners is a high-quality nitrogen fertilizer partnership (ROE 48%, Piotroski 8/9) trading at an attractive valuation, but leverage, a yield-trap warning and middling momentum leave little near-term upside to the $131.25 resistance level.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Deep Value→Stable
  • Limited Near Term Upside→Stable
  • High Quality High Roe Business→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CVR Partners, LP (UAN) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Sector Rotation edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Wait for pullback to $108.26. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $112.02. Engine's entry $108.26 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

CVR Partners produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products — primarily urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia — from two manufacturing facilities in Coffeyville, Kansas and East Dubuque, Illinois, selling wholesale to agricultural and industrial customers across the... Read more

$112.02+21.2% Upside to targetScore 6.7/10#2 of 9 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.49%
IncomeYield12.20%(5y avg 11.38%)Payout81.00%at-risk
Entry $108.26(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $100.68Target $131.25(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Wait for pullback to $108.26. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $112.02. Engine's entry $108.26 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Value play: 41% MoS with quality 8.2. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CVR Partners, LP

About CVR Partners, LP

CVR Partners generates approximately 67% of net sales from urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and 24% from ammonia, produced at two facilities — a Coffeyville, Kansas plant with 1,300-ton-per-day ammonia and 3,100-ton-per-day UAN capacity, and an East Dubuque, Illinois plant with 1,075-ton-per-day ammonia and 950-ton-per-day UAN capacity. The partnership's top two customers accounted for 28% of net sales in 2025, and its Coffeyville facility sourced approximately 36% of its pet coke feedstock from an adjacent refinery operated by affiliate CVR Energy.

CVR Partners sells UAN mainly to retailers and distributors and ammonia to agricultural and industrial customers, under wholesale contracts or purchase orders that typically carry fixed pricing and terms under one year. The Coffeyville facility is the only nitrogen fertilizer plant in North America that gasifies petroleum coke — sourced partly from CVR Energy's adjacent refinery and partly from third parties — into hydrogen feedstock, while the East Dubuque facility instead uses natural gas delivered via the Northern Natural Gas interstate pipeline system. Products move to customers by railcar (mainly Union Pacific and Burlington Northern Santa Fe), truck, and barge via direct Mississippi River dock access. CVR Partners competes against CF Industries, Nutrien, Koch Fertilizer, and LSB Industries, several of which have greater financial resources.

Show full overview

CVR Partners' feedstock dependence runs directly through its corporate affiliate: approximately 36% of the pet coke used to gasify hydrogen at the Coffeyville facility in 2025 came from CVR Energy's adjacent refinery under the Coffeyville Master Services Agreement, down from 46% in 2024 and 43% in 2023, with the remainder sourced from third parties by truck, railcar, or barge. Because the Coffeyville facility is the only North American nitrogen fertilizer plant built around pet coke gasification rather than natural gas, any disruption at the neighboring CVR Energy refinery would have no directly comparable feedstock substitute among domestic peers, which uniformly use natural gas.

See also: Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

From CVR Partners, LP's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 4, 2026

Recent Developments — CVR Partners, LP

Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:02Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 17, 2027103d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)-17.8
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn23.7%
ROE48.3%
Rev Growth20.0%
Beta0.18
Dividend12.20%
Analysts with ratings8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.98bearish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Vol Acceleration
2.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 15, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weaknessVolume surge (2.9x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 103d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
15 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.02Resistance $133.93

Price Targets

$101
$108
$131
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: MICRO-cap BUY_NOW needs quality>=8.5 or MoS>=50%
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-17 (103d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UAN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $108.26. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $112.02. Engine's entry $108.26 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Value play: 41% MoS with quality 8.2. Target $131.25 (+17.2%), stop $100.68 (−11.3%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $131.25 (+21.2% upside). Target $131.25 (+17.2%), stop $100.68 (−11.3%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $100.68.

What are the risks of investing in UAN?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Negative momentum.

Is UAN overvalued or undervalued?

CVR Partners, LP trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward -17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about UAN?

8 analysts rate UAN, with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does CVR Partners, LP do?CVR Partners produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products — primarily urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia...

CVR Partners produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products — primarily urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia — from two manufacturing facilities in Coffeyville, Kansas and East Dubuque, Illinois, selling wholesale to agricultural and industrial customers across the United States. UAN accounted for approximately 67% of 2025 net sales and ammonia 24%, with the top two customers representing 28% of net sales. The Coffeyville facility sourced approximately 36% of its pet coke feedstock in 2025 from an adjacent refinery operated by affiliate CVR Energy.

Related stocks: FMC (FMC Corporation) · ICL (ICL Group Ltd.) · IPI (Intrepid Potash, Inc) · SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) · CTVA (Corteva, Inc.)
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