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UANCVR Partners, LPBuy Wait7.1·$114.26+0.23%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CVR Partners delivers a 40% return on equity, 8/9 Piotroski score, and 26% revenue growth in the agricultural inputs sector, making it a high-quality business temporarily blocked by weak price momentum and a sector concentration cap that may lift as momentum recovers.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Roe 40 PctStable
  • Revenue Growth 26 Pct YoyStable
  • Oversold Rsi 17 Momentum BlockStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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CVR Partners, LP (UAN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Wait for pullback to $109.73. BUY gates pass at $114.26, but leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $109.73 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

CVR Partners produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products — primarily urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia — from two manufacturing facilities in Coffeyville, Kansas and East Dubuque, Illinois, selling wholesale to agricultural and industrial customers across the... Read more

$114.26+10.2% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 9 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.94%
IncomeYield10.77%(5y avg 10.42%)Payout91.73%at-risk
Entry $109.73(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $103.15Target $119.76(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Wait for pullback to $109.73. BUY gates pass at $114.26, but leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $109.73 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on sector concentration cap sector=basic materials count=3 cap=3. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CVR Partners, LP

About CVR Partners, LP

CVR Partners generates approximately 67% of net sales from urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and 24% from ammonia, produced at two facilities — a Coffeyville, Kansas plant with 1,300-ton-per-day ammonia and 3,100-ton-per-day UAN capacity, and an East Dubuque, Illinois plant with 1,075-ton-per-day ammonia and 950-ton-per-day UAN capacity. The partnership's top two customers accounted for 28% of net sales in 2025, and its Coffeyville facility sourced approximately 36% of its pet coke feedstock from an adjacent refinery operated by affiliate CVR Energy.

CVR Partners sells UAN mainly to retailers and distributors and ammonia to agricultural and industrial customers, under wholesale contracts or purchase orders that typically carry fixed pricing and terms under one year. The Coffeyville facility is the only nitrogen fertilizer plant in North America that gasifies petroleum coke — sourced partly from CVR Energy's adjacent refinery and partly from third parties — into hydrogen feedstock, while the East Dubuque facility instead uses natural gas delivered via the Northern Natural Gas interstate pipeline system. Products move to customers by railcar (mainly Union Pacific and Burlington Northern Santa Fe), truck, and barge via direct Mississippi River dock access. CVR Partners competes against CF Industries, Nutrien, Koch Fertilizer, and LSB Industries, several of which have greater financial resources.

Show full overview

CVR Partners' feedstock dependence runs directly through its corporate affiliate: approximately 36% of the pet coke used to gasify hydrogen at the Coffeyville facility in 2025 came from CVR Energy's adjacent refinery under the Coffeyville Master Services Agreement, down from 46% in 2024 and 43% in 2023, with the remainder sourced from third parties by truck, railcar, or barge. Because the Coffeyville facility is the only North American nitrogen fertilizer plant built around pet coke gasification rather than natural gas, any disruption at the neighboring CVR Energy refinery would have no directly comparable feedstock substitute among domestic peers, which uniformly use natural gas.

See also: Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

From CVR Partners, LP's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
High-quality business
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.9
P/E (Fwd)-18.2
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn18.9%
ROE39.6%
Rev Growth26.0%
Beta0.14
Dividend10.77%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials count=3 cap=3A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $107.00Resistance $122.20

Price Targets

$103
$110
$120
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.9%
Max %3.9%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UAN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $109.73. BUY gates pass at $114.26, but leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $109.73 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Target $119.76 (+4.8%), stop $103.15 (−10.8%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.76 (+10.2% upside). Target $119.76 (+4.8%), stop $103.15 (−10.8%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $103.15.

What are the risks of investing in UAN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is UAN overvalued or undervalued?

CVR Partners, LP trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward -18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about UAN?

8 analysts cover UAN with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does CVR Partners, LP do?CVR Partners produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products — primarily urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia...

CVR Partners produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products — primarily urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia — from two manufacturing facilities in Coffeyville, Kansas and East Dubuque, Illinois, selling wholesale to agricultural and industrial customers across the United States. UAN accounted for approximately 67% of 2025 net sales and ammonia 24%, with the top two customers representing 28% of net sales. The Coffeyville facility sourced approximately 36% of its pet coke feedstock in 2025 from an adjacent refinery operated by affiliate CVR Energy.

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