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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Wait for pullback to $115.58. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $123.00. Engine's entry $115.58 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

CF Industries operates the world's largest ammonia production network with 8 North American facilities and a UK plant, producing ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN, and other nitrogen products primarily for agricultural fertilizer markets. Revenue of $7.08B in 2025 from 19.1M... Read more

$123.00+10.0% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.48%
IncomeYield1.56%(5y avg 2.04%)Payout18.02%sustainable
Entry $115.58(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $104.01Target $127.30(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$125.47+2.0%19 analysts
$127.30our TP
$123.00price
$125.47mean
$86
$150

Wait for pullback to $115.58. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $123.00. Engine's entry $115.58 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$19.6B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn23.7%
ROE27.3%
Rev Growth19.4%
Beta0.42
Dividend1.56%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.85Resistance $129.90

Price Targets

$104
$116
$127
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R-0.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CF stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $115.58. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $123.00. Engine's entry $115.58 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $127.30 (+3.5%), stop $104.01 (−18.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.30 (+10.0% upside). Target $127.30 (+3.5%), stop $104.01 (−18.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $104.01.

What are the risks of investing in CF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is CF overvalued or undervalued?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CF?

30 analysts cover CF with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $125.

What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. do?CF Industries operates the world's largest ammonia production network with 8 North American facilities and a UK plant,...

CF Industries operates the world's largest ammonia production network with 8 North American facilities and a UK plant, producing ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN, and other nitrogen products primarily for agricultural fertilizer markets. Revenue of $7.08B in 2025 from 19.1M product tons; CHS Inc. holds ~11% of subsidiary CFN; actively decarbonizing via CCS at Donaldsonville and Blue Point JV.

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