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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $125.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

CF Industries is a nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer operating the world's largest ammonia production network, with facilities in the US (6 plants), Canada (2), and the UK (1). Revenue of $7.08B in 2025 came from selling ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN, and industrial nitrogen... Read more

$125.24+9.3% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
Stop $116.26Target $136.65(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$120.42-3.8%19 analysts
$136.65our TP
$125.24price
$120.42mean
$86
$150

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $125.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.1
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$19.5B
EV/EBITDA7.4
Profit Mgn20.5%
ROE23.4%
Rev Growth22.8%
Beta0.52
Dividend1.58%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.26bearish
IV67%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliernatural gas pipeline (single-source)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Certain of our plants are reliant on only one natural gas pipeline'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $109.71Resistance $139.44

Price Targets

$116
$137
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CF stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $125.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $136.65 (+9.1%), stop $116.26 (−7.7%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.65 (+9.3% upside). Target $136.65 (+9.1%), stop $116.26 (−7.7%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $116.26.

What are the risks of investing in CF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is CF overvalued or undervalued?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.1 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CF?

30 analysts cover CF with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $120.

What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. do?CF Industries is a nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer operating the world's largest ammonia production network, with...

CF Industries is a nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer operating the world's largest ammonia production network, with facilities in the US (6 plants), Canada (2), and the UK (1). Revenue of $7.08B in 2025 came from selling ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN, and industrial nitrogen products to cooperatives, retailers, distributors, and industrial users.

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