Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat High Returns→Stable
- Earnings Beat Growth↓Deteriorating
- Price Above Analyst Target↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Wait for pullback to $103.49. At $111.68 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $103.49 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline; Thin upside margin: 3.7%.
CF Industries Holdings manufactures nitrogen fertilizer products — principally ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and AN — from six U.S., two Canadian, and one U.K. facility, generating $7.08 billion in net sales from 19.1 million tons in 2025. Customers include agricultural... Read more
Wait for pullback to $103.49. At $111.68 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $103.49 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline; Thin upside margin: 3.7%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 56% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF Industries Holdings generated $7.08 billion in net sales in 2025 from 19.1 million product tons across five segments: Ammonia ($2.18 billion, 4.6 million tons), Granular Urea ($1.78 billion, 4.1 million tons), UAN ($2.16 billion, 6.9 million tons), AN ($421 million), and Other ($545 million). The company operates eight North American manufacturing facilities, including Donaldsonville, Louisiana — described in the 10-K as the largest ammonia production complex in the world — and holds a 50% interest in PLNL, an ammonia joint venture in Trinidad.
CF Industries earns revenue primarily from agricultural customers — cooperatives, retailers, and independent fertilizer distributors — who purchase ammonia and upgraded nitrogen products at spot or forward market prices. Natural gas is both feedstock and fuel for the Haber-Bosch ammonia production process; North American natural gas has historically traded well below the global marginal cost of production, giving CF Industries a cost advantage over competitors in the Middle East, Europe, and Russia — though that advantage may erode if U.S. LNG export volumes increase or competitors gain access to lower-cost feedstock. The Donaldsonville complex completed a carbon capture and sequestration project in July 2025 at a cost of approximately $200 million, enabling up to approximately 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia annually and qualifying for 45Q Tax Credits. The Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, formed April 2025, targets construction of a low-carbon ammonia facility in Modeste, Louisiana at an estimated cost of approximately $3.7 billion, with first production planned for 2029.
Show full overview
Natural gas supply disruptions expose CF Industries to production risk at individual plants. Certain facilities depend on a single natural gas pipeline, meaning a localized outage could halt production without an alternative feed path. The Donaldsonville and Waggaman complexes sit in Louisiana's Gulf Coast, a region the 10-K notes 'experiences a relatively high level of hurricane or high wind activity'; the filing further notes that insurance may be insufficient or unavailable for certain severe weather events at these complexes, introducing unhedged tail risk at the company's largest production hub.
See also: Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
From CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) After 4.4% Decline -- GF Value $122.55 vs Price $111.68 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Nov 5, 2026 negative
- NEWS CF 261030 102.00C (CF261030C102000) Stock Community & Discussion - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Will Upcoming Earnings Change CF Industries Stock Narrative - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Will Upcoming Earnings Change CF Industries Stock Narrative - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Keeps Their Hold Rating on Cf Industries Holdings (CF) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle natural gas pipeline10-K Item 1A: 'certain of our plants are reliant on only one natural gas pipeline'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-05Item 5.02MEDIUMAndrew T. Scribner elected EVP and CFO of CF Industries Holdings, effective May 26, 2026. Previously VP at Kimberly-Clark (June 2025–May 2026) and CFO of Kimberly-Clark North America (Jan 2023–June 2025). Successor named; no reason cited for prior CFO departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $103.49. At $111.68 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $103.49 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline; Thin upside margin: 3.7%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 56% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $115.82 (+3.7%), stop $96.25 (−16.0%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $115.82 (+3.7% upside). Target $115.82 (+3.7%), stop $96.25 (−16.0%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $96.25.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline; Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
31 analysts rate CF, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 20 analysts publish price targets averaging $129.
What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. do?CF Industries Holdings manufactures nitrogen fertilizer products — principally ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and AN —...
CF Industries Holdings manufactures nitrogen fertilizer products — principally ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and AN — from six U.S., two Canadian, and one U.K. facility, generating $7.08 billion in net sales from 19.1 million tons in 2025. Customers include agricultural cooperatives, retailers, and industrial users who purchase at market-based prices tied to global nitrogen supply and demand.