Attractive valuation metrics and an oversold technical setup offer a potential entry point with approximately 15% upside at a favorable risk/reward, but critically weak cash conversion — only 21 cents of each dollar of reported net income converts to free cash flow — and a dividend that appears inadequately backed by actual cash generation are material concerns that cap conviction.
Thesis pillars
- Oversold Setup With Volume Accumulation↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Valuation Metrics↑Improving
- Critically Weak Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days
ICL Group Ltd. (ICL) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Sell if holding. At $4.58, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions. The Industrial Products segment produces bromine out... Read more
Sell if holding. At $4.58, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — ICL Group Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS Barclays Analyst Maintains Hold Rating on ICL Group Ltd. — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Reported September 21, Belarus President Lukashenko Says Country Doesn't Have Potash Volumes To Supply The U.S. Due To C — benzinga Sep 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS President Trump, On Social Media, Says U.S. Working On Massive Deal Towards Purchase Of Potash From Belarus; The Pricing — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ICL Group (ICL) Is Up 5.1% After Q2 Beat And Major Business Restructuring - What's Changed - simplywall.st — simplywall.st Aug 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS ICL Group (ICL) Reaffirmed Guidance And Unveiled Elevate, Is It Undervalued? - simplywall.st — simplywall.st Aug 9, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $4.58, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $4.30. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $4.88 (+6.5% upside). Prior stop was $4.30. Stop-loss: $4.30.
Thin upside margin: 6.5%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
ICL Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 19.1 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts rate ICL, with a consensus score of 2.4/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $6.
What does ICL Group Ltd. do?ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The...
ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions. The Industrial Products segment produces bromine out of a solution that is a by-product of the potash production process, as well as bromine-based compounds; sells various grades of potash, salt, magnesium chloride, and magnesia products; and produces and markets phosphorous-based flame retardants and other phosphorus-based products. The Potash segment produces and sells potash, salt, magnesium, electricity, and magnesium alloys; as well as chlorine and sylvinite. The Phosphate segment uses phosphate commodity products to produce specialty products; sells phosphate-based fertilizers, as well as sulphuric and green phosphoric acid, and phosphate fertilizers; and offers phosphate salts and acids. It also develops and produces functional food ingredients and phosphate additives. The Growing Solutions segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells fertilizers based primarily on nitrogen, potash, and phosphate, including water-soluble specialty, and controlled-release fertilizers, as well as secondary nutrients, bio-stimulants, soil conditioners, seed treatment products, and adjuvants. It also offers digital platforms and technological solutions for farmers and agronomists. The company serves pharmaceutical, food, oil and gas, de-icing, building and construction, oral care, paints and coatings, energy storage, water treatment, electronics, automotive, agriculture, textiles, tire manufacturing, and healthcare industries, as well as power plants and battery producers. It sells its products through marketing companies, agents, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Israel Chemicals Ltd. and changed its name to ICL Group Ltd in May 2020. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.