Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.1x
- ▸PEG: 2.02
MOS · Why this verdict
Why Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is running at approximately -644% relative to reported net income — a severe red flag indicating the business is consuming capital at a rate far exceeding its earnings, and that reported profits are not converting into distributable cash. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio improves above -100% over the next 12 months as a baseline prerequisite for reconsidering the investment. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme negative FCF in a resource-extraction business can reflect lumpy capital expenditure cycles; if investment spending normalizes in future periods, cash generation may improve without any fundamental deterioration. | ||
Reading the most recent quarter first: the company missed estimates by 77% in the latest print, missed by 51% the prior quarter, then posted a 9% beat, then missed again — 3 of the last 4 quarters were misses, with an average negative surprise of -37%, making forward earnings guidance unreliable. Earnings | EPS surprise turns positive and exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the company has regained forecasting credibility. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single beat (9.4% positive surprise in the third-most-recent quarter) shows the company can post upside prints when conditions align, though an isolated beat amid a miss-heavy streak is insufficient to call a trend reversal. | ||
The company faces dual geographic concentration: 64% of customers are based outside the United States and phosphate mining operations are concentrated in Florida — an exposure that amplifies weather, regulatory, and currency risks simultaneously. Bear case | International customer concentration falls below 55% of total revenue within 2 years, indicating meaningful diversification of the demand base. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic specialization in Florida phosphate may reflect genuine operational advantages in proximity to reserves; concentration in a region where the company holds scale advantages is not straightforwardly negative. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — the 200-day moving average is declining at -5.7% per month, a death cross is in place, and multiple technical gates have failed simultaneously — conditions that collectively indicate the market is pricing in continued deterioration. Engine gate (failed) | The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average and holds there for at least 10 consecutive trading days before the technical setup is reconsidered. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep technical weakness in a commodity producer can sometimes coincide with a cyclical trough that precedes a sharp price recovery if the underlying commodity price rebounds; the current setup may reflect sentiment at an extreme rather than a structural decline. | ||
The dividend payout is running at approximately 391% of net income — meaning the company is distributing nearly four times its current earnings as dividends, a level that cannot be sustained without either an earnings recovery or a dividend reduction. Catalyst breakdown | The payout ratio falls below 100% within 2 fiscal years as earnings recover or the dividend is restructured. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh payout ratios in commodity companies can be temporarily supported by accumulated cash reserves or asset realizations; management may view the elevated payout as a bridge to a recovery rather than a permanent structural mismatch. | ||
Free cash flow is running at approximately -644% relative to reported net income — a severe red flag indicating the business is consuming capital at a rate far exceeding its earnings, and that reported profits are not converting into distributable cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio improves above -100% over the next 12 months as a baseline prerequisite for reconsidering the investment.
CounterExtreme negative FCF in a resource-extraction business can reflect lumpy capital expenditure cycles; if investment spending normalizes in future periods, cash generation may improve without any fundamental deterioration.
Reading the most recent quarter first: the company missed estimates by 77% in the latest print, missed by 51% the prior quarter, then posted a 9% beat, then missed again — 3 of the last 4 quarters were misses, with an average negative surprise of -37%, making forward earnings guidance unreliable.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive and exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the company has regained forecasting credibility.
CounterThe single beat (9.4% positive surprise in the third-most-recent quarter) shows the company can post upside prints when conditions align, though an isolated beat amid a miss-heavy streak is insufficient to call a trend reversal.
The company faces dual geographic concentration: 64% of customers are based outside the United States and phosphate mining operations are concentrated in Florida — an exposure that amplifies weather, regulatory, and currency risks simultaneously.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International customer concentration falls below 55% of total revenue within 2 years, indicating meaningful diversification of the demand base.
CounterGeographic specialization in Florida phosphate may reflect genuine operational advantages in proximity to reserves; concentration in a region where the company holds scale advantages is not straightforwardly negative.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — the 200-day moving average is declining at -5.7% per month, a death cross is in place, and multiple technical gates have failed simultaneously — conditions that collectively indicate the market is pricing in continued deterioration.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average and holds there for at least 10 consecutive trading days before the technical setup is reconsidered.
CounterDeep technical weakness in a commodity producer can sometimes coincide with a cyclical trough that precedes a sharp price recovery if the underlying commodity price rebounds; the current setup may reflect sentiment at an extreme rather than a structural decline.
The dividend payout is running at approximately 391% of net income — meaning the company is distributing nearly four times its current earnings as dividends, a level that cannot be sustained without either an earnings recovery or a dividend reduction.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The payout ratio falls below 100% within 2 fiscal years as earnings recover or the dividend is restructured.
CounterHigh payout ratios in commodity companies can be temporarily supported by accumulated cash reserves or asset realizations; management may view the elevated payout as a bridge to a recovery rather than a permanent structural mismatch.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mosaic Company presents a structurally challenged investment case: business quality is well below the minimum threshold, free cash flow is deeply negative, earnings are predominantly missing estimates, and a confirmed technical downtrend compounds the risk profile — the setup does not support a new position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -644% FCF/NI
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.49
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 416.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.06
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.57
Upside
+15.8%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 6.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.6, Sentiment at 6.2, and Growth at 6.1; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Momentum at 2.4, and Catalyst at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Miss Dominated Record
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Geographic And Operational Concentration
Trip ifInternational customer concentration falls below 50% of total revenue in the next annual filing.
- P4Technical Downtrend Multiple Blocks
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P5Unsustainable Dividend Payout
Trip ifPayout ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.