Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American production), Potash (34% of N. American production), and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) segments. Approximately 64% of 2025 net sales came from outside the US; the... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.06. Suitability: moderate.
About Mosaic Company (The)
About Mosaic Company (The)
Mosaic produced approximately 6.3 million tonnes of concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and 8.8 million tonnes of potash in 2025, mining primarily in central Florida and Saskatchewan, Canada, with a 75% interest in the Miski Mayo phosphate rock mine in Peru. The company accounts for about 72% of North American annual concentrated phosphate output and 34% of North American potash output, serving buyers in approximately 40 countries, with 64% of 2025 net sales from international customers.
Mosaic sells DAP, MAP, MicroEssentials, and potash grades primarily at spot and index-linked prices to distributors, retailers, and farmers, with no disclosed long-term pricing mechanism that locks in a margin floor — exposing profitability to global fertilizer commodity cycles. Three raw material inputs drive phosphate production costs: sulfur (approximately 2.9 million long tons consumed in 2025, purchased from North American oil refiners, subject to volatile pricing and availability); ammonia (about 0.9 million tonnes consumed, one-third purchased spot, two-thirds via supply agreements or internal production at Faustina, Louisiana); and natural gas (17.1 million MM BTU combined across potash and ammonia production). In Canada, the Saskatchewan Potash Production Tax and a resource surcharge on mine sales add royalty costs. Canpotex, the potash export consortium, allocated Mosaic an entitlement of 35.9% of consortium sales in 2025. Mosaic Fertilizantes, with five phosphate rock mines and four chemical plants in Brazil, also serves as a distribution hub for South American customers.
Show full overview
Mosaic's Florida phosphate operations carry a layered environmental liability profile: phosphogypsum stack systems at Florida and Louisiana facilities must comply simultaneously with FDEP process water management rules, U.S. EPA RCRA Consent Decrees, and Louisiana DEQ requirements. In April 2026, the company disclosed a $350–$400 million pre-tax impairment via Form 8-K tied to idling its Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex in Brazil. A separate social conflict risk exists at the Miski Mayo Mine in Peru, where protests against natural resource extraction have historically occurred and may affect the company's phosphate rock supply from that 75% interest.
See also: Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
From Mosaic Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Mosaic Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS 'Hormuz Reopening Seen Unleashing Pent-Up Gulf Grain Demand' - Bloomberg — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Intrepid Potash Appoints Former Mosaic Executive Jason Tremblay CFO, Effective Immediately — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS BMO Capital Maintains Outperform on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $31 — benzinga May 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $26 — benzinga May 18, 2026 negative
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $22 — benzinga May 14, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-06-17T08:21:49Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational markets (outside U.S.)64%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we derived approximately 64% of our net sales from customers located outside of the U.S.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-08Item 2.06MEDIUMMosaic announced idling of Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex and related Patrocínio Complex mining in Brazil. Expected pre-tax Q1 2026 book impact of $350-$400M ($275-$300M impairment/writeoffs; balance is severance and other idling costs).SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.77: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $21.12. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $24.14 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $21.12. Stop-loss: $21.12.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international markets (outside U.S.) (64.0%); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
Mosaic Company (The) trades at a P/E of 162.1 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover MOS with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $27.
What does Mosaic Company (The) do?The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American...
The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American production), Potash (34% of N. American production), and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) segments. Approximately 64% of 2025 net sales came from outside the US; the company is the second-largest integrated phosphate producer globally and among the top four potash producers.