Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.05: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
The Mosaic Company produces and markets concentrated phosphate (~72% of North American capacity) and potash (~34% of North American capacity) crop nutrients through Phosphate, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) segments. Revenue comes from selling crop nutrients and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.05: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational (outside U.S.)64%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we derived approximately 64% of our net sales from customers located outside of the U.S.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-08Item 2.06MEDIUMMosaic announced idling and demobilization of its Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex in Brazil on April 8, 2026. Expected pre-tax charge of $350–$400M in Q1 2026 ($275–$300M asset impairment, remainder severance and idling costs). No successor plan cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.05: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $22.06. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.63 (+20.0% upside). Prior stop was $22.06. Stop-loss: $22.06.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside U.S.) (64.0%); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).
Mosaic Company (The) trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover MOS with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $31.
What does Mosaic Company (The) do?The Mosaic Company produces and markets concentrated phosphate (~72% of North American capacity) and potash (~34% of...
The Mosaic Company produces and markets concentrated phosphate (~72% of North American capacity) and potash (~34% of North American capacity) crop nutrients through Phosphate, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) segments. Revenue comes from selling crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients globally; approximately 64% of 2025 net sales were from customers outside the U.S.