Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.41: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American production), Potash (34% of N. American production), and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) segments. Approximately 64% of 2025 net sales came from outside the US; the... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.41: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Mosaic Company (The)
Latest news
- Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $26 — benzinga May 18, 2026 negative
- Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $22 — benzinga May 14, 2026 negative
- RBC Capital Upgrades Mosaic to Outperform, Lowers Price Target to $27 — benzinga May 13, 2026 positive
- UBS Maintains Neutral on Mosaic, Lowers Price Target to $23 — benzinga May 12, 2026 negative
- Mosaic Analysts Slash Their Forecasts After Q1 Earnings — benzinga May 12, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational markets (outside U.S.)64%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we derived approximately 64% of our net sales from customers located outside of the U.S.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-08Item 2.06MEDIUMMosaic announced idling of Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex and related Patrocínio Complex mining in Brazil. Expected pre-tax Q1 2026 book impact of $350-$400M ($275-$300M impairment/writeoffs; balance is severance and other idling costs).SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.41: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $20.48. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $24.80 (+15.8% upside). Prior stop was $20.48. Stop-loss: $20.48.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international markets (outside U.S.) (64.0%); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
Mosaic Company (The) trades at a P/E of 155.4 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover MOS with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Mosaic Company (The) do?The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American...
The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American production), Potash (34% of N. American production), and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) segments. Approximately 64% of 2025 net sales came from outside the US; the company is the second-largest integrated phosphate producer globally and among the top four potash producers.