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BGBunge LimitedSell6.0·$106.46+1.50%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Bunge has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and reported 88% year-over-year earnings growth, but business quality scores are at their floor, free cash flow is deeply negative despite positive reported earnings, and price momentum has been deteriorating — the quality and cash-flow concerns outweigh the headline growth and valuation appeal.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum BreakdownStable
  • Quality Below ThresholdStable
  • Negative Free Cash FlowStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bunge Limited (BG) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 11.95; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Bunge Global is an agribusiness solutions company connecting farmers to consumers, purchasing, storing, transporting, processing and distributing agricultural commodities across four segments — Soybean Processing and Refining, Softseed Processing and Refining, Other Oilseeds... Read more

$106.46+15.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 8 Farm Products
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-33.05%
IncomeYield2.71%(5y avg 2.62%)Payout73.68%
Stop $101.00Target $123.06(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$141.44+32.9%9 analysts
$123.06our TP
$106.46price
$141.44mean
$150

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 11.95; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Bunge Limited

About Bunge Limited

Bunge Global runs four reportable segments — Soybean Processing and Refining, Softseed Processing and Refining, Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining, and Grain Merchandising and Milling — after completing its acquisition of Viterra on July 2, 2025. Soybean processing capacity concentrates 47% in South America, while softseed processing capacity concentrates 53% in Europe, reflecting more than 200 years of operations across more than 50 countries.

Bunge earns revenue by purchasing, storing, transporting, processing and distributing soybeans, softseeds, corn, wheat, barley, cotton, pulses and sugar, layering on financial, risk-management and logistics services for farmers and end customers; in Brazil it extends financing directly to farmers to secure its annual soybean supply. The company competes against Archer Daniels Midland, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Wilmar International across its oilseed and grain businesses, with COFCO International, AAK and Fuji Oil named as segment-specific rivals. Selling prices for Bunge's ethanol, renewable diesel and biodiesel outputs track petroleum and gasoline prices rather than moving independently, so profitability in that part of the portfolio rises and falls with oil markets even though the underlying feedstocks are agricultural. A Bunge Chevron joint venture manufactures renewable diesel, tying part of its earnings to a partner it does not fully control.

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Bunge's geographic concentration risk is dated and specific: as of December 31, 2025 the company operated four oilseed crushing facilities plus two export terminals in Ukraine — a country it calls the world's largest supplier of sunflower seed and sunflower oil, commodities the 10-K says cannot be completely replaced from other origins — even as the Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing since February 2022, has forced some Ukrainian employees to relocate and left onsite inspections of those facilities intermittently impossible for safety reasons.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

From Bunge Limited's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 3, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Bunge Limited

Latest news

Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Europe (53.0%)
Concentration risk — Commodity: sunflower seed and sunflower oil from Ukraine
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.0
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$20.7B
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn0.8%
ROE4.9%
Rev Growth87.8%
Beta0.64
Dividend2.71%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C11.95bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicSouth America47%
    10-K Item 1: '47% in South America, 25% in North America, 15% in Asia-Pacific, and 13% in Europe'
  • HIGHGeographicEurope53%
    10-K Item 1: '53% in Europe, 30% in North America, 13% in South America, and 4% in Asia-Pacific'
  • HIGHCommoditysunflower seed and sunflower oil from Ukraine
    10-K Item 1A: 'Ukraine forms part of a key international grain originating region and is also the world’s largest supplier of sunflower seed and sunflower oil, commodities that cannot be completely replaced from other origins.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.4
Operating Margin
0.5
Roe
1.6
Roa
1.6
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1000% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
20 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $104.12Resistance $132.91

Price Targets

$101
$123
A.Upside+15.6%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 11.95; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $101.00. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $123.06 (+15.6% upside). Prior stop was $101.00. Stop-loss: $101.00.

What are the risks of investing in BG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Europe (53.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: sunflower seed and sunflower oil from Ukraine; Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is BG overvalued or undervalued?

Bunge Limited trades at a P/E of 28.0 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BG?

20 analysts cover BG with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $141.

What does Bunge Limited do?Bunge Global is an agribusiness solutions company connecting farmers to consumers, purchasing, storing, transporting,...

Bunge Global is an agribusiness solutions company connecting farmers to consumers, purchasing, storing, transporting, processing and distributing agricultural commodities across four segments — Soybean Processing and Refining, Softseed Processing and Refining, Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining, and Grain Merchandising and Milling — in more than 50 countries. The company completed its acquisition of Viterra on July 2, 2025, creating a larger integrated food, feed and fuel platform, and is incorporated in Switzerland with U.S. corporate headquarters in Chesterfield, Missouri.

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