Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
BG · Why this verdict
Why Bunge (BG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price momentum is deteriorating — volume is flowing out through a falling on-balance volume trend, and the momentum score sits materially below the minimum gate threshold — signaling that sellers have been in control of the tape. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume trend reverses to rising and the momentum score recovers above the 4.5 gate threshold within six months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith reported earnings growing at 88% year over year and a near-zero PEG ratio, the price weakness may prove temporary if the market reprices the growth profile upward on continued positive earnings surprises. | ||
Business quality scores at 2.4 out of 10 — well below the 4.0 minimum bar — reflecting near-zero operating margins, no recognized competitive moat, and a deeply negative free cash flow profile that collectively indicate fragile fundamental health. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.0, driven by free cash flow turning positive and margin recovery, within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski score of 6.7 indicates balance sheet health is not yet impaired; if the growth trajectory translates into margin expansion, quality metrics could recover to an acceptable level. | ||
Despite four consecutive earnings beats, free cash flow is deeply negative — the business is not converting reported profits into cash, a meaningful red flag for financial quality and the sustainability of the dividend. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income ratio rises above 50% within two fiscal years, confirming that reported earnings are translating into real cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterThe strong Piotroski score of 6.7 suggests the balance sheet is not yet distressed; if the cash deficit proves transient, the quality flag may resolve as earnings momentum continues. | ||
The company has delivered four consecutive positive earnings surprises with an average beat of roughly 39%, and reported 88% year-over-year earnings growth — a strong track record that stands in sharp contrast to the deteriorating cash and momentum signals. Earnings | Average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 10% for the next four quarters, sustaining the beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the quality and cash flow concerns are structural rather than transient, the reported earnings strength may not reflect durable economic progress — the beat streak could narrow as analysts recalibrate expectations upward. | ||
Price momentum is deteriorating — volume is flowing out through a falling on-balance volume trend, and the momentum score sits materially below the minimum gate threshold — signaling that sellers have been in control of the tape.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend reverses to rising and the momentum score recovers above the 4.5 gate threshold within six months.
CounterWith reported earnings growing at 88% year over year and a near-zero PEG ratio, the price weakness may prove temporary if the market reprices the growth profile upward on continued positive earnings surprises.
Business quality scores at 2.4 out of 10 — well below the 4.0 minimum bar — reflecting near-zero operating margins, no recognized competitive moat, and a deeply negative free cash flow profile that collectively indicate fragile fundamental health.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0, driven by free cash flow turning positive and margin recovery, within 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski score of 6.7 indicates balance sheet health is not yet impaired; if the growth trajectory translates into margin expansion, quality metrics could recover to an acceptable level.
Despite four consecutive earnings beats, free cash flow is deeply negative — the business is not converting reported profits into cash, a meaningful red flag for financial quality and the sustainability of the dividend.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income ratio rises above 50% within two fiscal years, confirming that reported earnings are translating into real cash generation.
CounterThe strong Piotroski score of 6.7 suggests the balance sheet is not yet distressed; if the cash deficit proves transient, the quality flag may resolve as earnings momentum continues.
The company has delivered four consecutive positive earnings surprises with an average beat of roughly 39%, and reported 88% year-over-year earnings growth — a strong track record that stands in sharp contrast to the deteriorating cash and momentum signals.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 10% for the next four quarters, sustaining the beat streak.
CounterIf the quality and cash flow concerns are structural rather than transient, the reported earnings strength may not reflect durable economic progress — the beat streak could narrow as analysts recalibrate expectations upward.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bunge has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and reported 88% year-over-year earnings growth, but business quality scores are at their floor, free cash flow is deeply negative despite positive reported earnings, and price momentum has been deteriorating — the quality and cash-flow concerns outweigh the headline growth and valuation appeal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 88% YoY
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 5.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 11.95
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 271.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.26
Upside
+15.6%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 7.7, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Quality at 2.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Negative Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio rises above 50% for 2 consecutive fiscal years, indicating the business has turned to positive cash generation.
- P2Momentum Breakdown
Trip ifOn-balance volume trend reverses to rising for more than 3 consecutive months and momentum score recovers above 4.5.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak Divergence
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the four-quarter beat streak.
- P4Quality Below Threshold
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.5 from the current 2.4, indicating meaningful fundamental improvement above the minimum floor.