Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ADM stock price target?

Take-profit $74.26 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $71.66.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ADM?

Target reached (-23.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Target reached (-23.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Q: Is ADM overvalued or undervalued?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company trades at a P/E of 33.3 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ADM?

20 analysts cover ADM with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $67.

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities. ADM is also a premier human and animal nutrition provider, as well as a leader in health and well-being products.

$75.22-1.4% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#7 of 7 Farm Products

Stop $71.66Target $74.26(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1

Analyst target$66.60-11.5%10 analysts

$74.26our TP

$75.22price

$66.60mean

$54

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.22: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-23.1% upside)

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.3

P/E (Fwd)15.3

Mkt Cap$35.8B

EV/EBITDA17.7

Profit Mgn1.3%

ROE4.7%

Rev Growth-13.7%

Beta0.64

Dividend2.80%

Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.54bullish

IV46%normal

Max Pain$50-33.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
On March 9, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (the "Company") increased the size of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of the Company from 12 to 13 directors and elected Michael C.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.715%0.85

Quality3.215%0.48

Growth0.015%0.00

Momentum6.810%0.68

Sentiment5.310%0.53

Insider Activity4.210%0.42

Peer Rank3.610%0.36

Technical Setup3.55%0.18

Risk Profile7.35%0.36

Catalyst7.05%0.35

Overall (Σ contributions)4.21

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -13.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Earnings Growth

0.0

Declining revenue: -14%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

0.7

Net Margin

0.7

Roa

1.1

Roe

1.6

Piotroski F

4.4

Moat

5.0

Current Ratio

5.1

Fcf Quality

10.0

Excellent cash conversion: 199% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger

0.0

Support Resistance

0.5

52w Position

9.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

1.4

Value Rank

3.0

Quality Rank

5.0

GatesA.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate

RSI

66 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $66.06Resistance $75.78

Price Targets

$72

$74

A.Upside-1.3%

A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-23.1% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ADM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.22: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $71.66. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.26 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $71.66. Stop-loss: $71.66.

What are the risks of investing in ADM?

Target reached (-23.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is ADM overvalued or undervalued?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company trades at a P/E of 33.3 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADM?

20 analysts cover ADM with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $67.

What does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company do?The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by...