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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.29: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities. ADM is also a premier human and animal nutrition provider, as well as a leader in health and well-being products.

$80.29+1.3% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#7 of 7 Farm Products
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.07%
IncomeYield2.59%(5y avg 2.73%)Payout91.52%at-risk
Stop $75.20Target $81.44(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$74.10-7.7%10 analysts
$81.44our TP
$80.29price
$74.10mean
$58
$90

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.29: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-19.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.9
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$38.7B
EV/EBITDA19.3
Profit Mgn1.3%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.58
Dividend2.59%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On March 9, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (the "Company") increased the size of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of the Company from 12 to 13 directors and elected Michael C.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.2
Revenue Growth
2.9

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.5
Net Margin
0.7
Roa
1.1
Roe
1.6
Moat
4.5
Current Ratio
4.9
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
9.9
Excellent cash conversion: 146% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
2.9
Quality Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.30Resistance $83.10

Price Targets

$75
$81
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.29: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $75.20. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.44 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $75.20. Stop-loss: $75.20.

What are the risks of investing in ADM?

Target reached (-19.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is ADM overvalued or undervalued?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company trades at a P/E of 35.9 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADM?

19 analysts cover ADM with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $74.

What does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company do?The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by...

The Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities. ADM is also a premier human and animal nutrition provider, as well as a leader in health and well-being products.

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