Cal-Maine sits at a cyclical earnings peak with consensus expecting a roughly 75% decline in profits ahead and the stock trading above its near-term resistance target — the reward-to-risk geometry is deeply unfavorable and a confirmed technical downtrend reinforces the case for caution.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion↓Deteriorating
- Cyclical Earnings Decline Ahead→Stable
- Price Above Resistance Negative Ratio↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $90.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality.
Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States, operating a single segment covering flock production and the processing, packaging, and distribution of shell eggs, egg products, and prepared foods. As of May 31, 2025, its flock... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $90.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cal-Maine (NASDAQ:CALM) Misses Q2 CY2026 Sales Expectations - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CALM) Cal-Maine Foods Posts Fiscal Q4 Loss $0.76 a Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.08 EPS - marketscreener. — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CALM) Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Reports Q4 Revenue $552.6M, vs. FactSet Est of $563.8M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Tesla Stock Is in the Calm Before the Storm - Barron's — Barron's neutral
- NEWS US futures keep the calm for now but the coast isn't clear yet - investingLive — investingLive neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T11:13:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart Inc. (including Sam's Club)34%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart Inc. (including Sam's Club), accounted for 33.6%, 34.0% and 34.2% of net sales dollars for fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- MEDIUMCustomertop three customers49%10-K Item 1: 'Our top three customers accounted for an aggregate of 49.2%, 49.0% and 50.1% of our net sales dollars for fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- HIGHProductshell eggs10-K Item 1A: 'The production and sale of fresh shell eggs, which accounted for 94.3% to 95.3% of our net sales in our last three fiscal years'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOWCal-Maine Foods elected Dudley Wooley as an independent Class III director to serve until the 2027 annual meeting; he received a standard $100,000 annual RSA grant vesting January 12, 2029. Routine board appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -49.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $90.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $84.00. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $89.14 (-18.4% upside). Prior stop was $84.00. Stop-loss: $84.00.
Concentration risk — Product: shell eggs; Cyclical trap - fwd PE 25x vs trail 6x (4.0x); Target reached (-18.4% upside).
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 25.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CALM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $87.
What does Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. do?Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States, operating a single segment...
Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States, operating a single segment covering flock production and the processing, packaging, and distribution of shell eggs, egg products, and prepared foods. As of May 31, 2025, its flock consisted of approximately 48.3 million layers and 11.5 million pullets and breeders. Fresh shell eggs accounted for 94.3% to 95.3% of net sales over the last three fiscal years, and Walmart Inc. (including Sam's Club) accounted for 33.6% of fiscal 2025 net sales.