Cal-Maine sits at a cyclical earnings peak with consensus expecting a roughly 75% decline in profits ahead and the stock trading above its near-term resistance target — the reward-to-risk geometry is deeply unfavorable and a confirmed technical downtrend reinforces the case for caution.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Cyclical Earnings Decline Ahead↑Improving
- Price Above Resistance Negative Ratio↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $81.07: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States, with a flock of approximately 48.3 million layers and 11.5 million pullets and breeders as of May 31, 2025. Fresh shell eggs made up 94.3% to 95.3% of net sales over the last three fiscal... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $81.07: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Cal-Maine Foods' largest customer, Walmart (including Sam's Club), accounted for 33.6% of net sales in fiscal 2025, and its top three customers together made up 49.2%. Fresh shell eggs generated 94.3% to 95.3% of net sales over the company's last three fiscal years, with cage-free eggs reaching approximately 22.5% of total shell egg sales in fiscal 2025. Retail customers accounted for 86% of shell egg revenue, versus 13% from foodservice.
Cal-Maine earns nearly all of its revenue from producing, grading, packing, and marketing fresh shell eggs, supplemented by a growing cage-free and specialty-egg line sold under brands including Egg-Land's Best and 4-Grain, along with egg-products processing for further-processed uses. The company sells primarily to national and regional grocery chains, club stores, and foodservice distributors, with Walmart and Sam's Club representing its single largest revenue relationship. Feed costs — driven by corn and soybean meal, which the company stockpiles up to 215 thousand tons at a time to manage volatile pricing — are the largest input cost, and Cal-Maine does not fully hedge against commodity price swings. The company grows partly through vertical integration of its supply chain (hatcheries, pullet-growing, feed mills) and partly through acquisition of other egg producers, consolidating share in an industry that remains fragmented among independent producers.
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Cal-Maine's single largest operational risk is biological rather than financial: the industry has been affected by repeated highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, most recently a wave that began in early 2022, which can force the depopulation of entire flocks with little warning and has historically driven sharp swings in egg prices and supply. Because fresh shell eggs make up 94% or more of Cal-Maine's net sales with no meaningfully diversified product line to fall back on, an HPAI event at the company's own facilities — or an industry-wide outbreak that disrupts national supply and demand — would flow almost directly into consolidated results in a way a more diversified food company would not experience.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
From Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cal-Maine (NASDAQ:CALM) Misses Q2 CY2026 Sales Expectations - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CALM) Cal-Maine Foods Posts Fiscal Q4 Loss $0.76 a Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.08 EPS - marketscreener. — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CALM) Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Reports Q4 Revenue $552.6M, vs. FactSet Est of $563.8M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Tesla Stock Is in the Calm Before the Storm - Barron's — Barron's neutral
- NEWS US futures keep the calm for now but the coast isn't clear yet - investingLive — investingLive neutral
Generated 2026-08-16T12:27:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart (including Sam's Club)34%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart Inc. (including Sam's Club), accounted for 33.6%, 34.0% and 34.2% of net sales dollars for fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- MEDIUMCustomertop three customers49%10-K Item 1: 'Our top three customers accounted for an aggregate of 49.2%, 49.0% and 50.1% of our net sales dollars for fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- HIGHProductfresh shell eggs94%10-K Item 1A: 'The production and sale of fresh shell eggs, which accounted for 94.3% to 95.3% of our net sales in our last three fiscal years, is intensely competitive.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOWDudley Wooley appointed as an independent Class III director effective March 31, 2026, serving until the 2027 annual meeting; routine board appointment with committee assignments and a $100,000 annual RSA grant.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -49.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $81.07: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $78.01. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $93.34 (-7.8% upside). Prior stop was $78.01. Stop-loss: $78.01.
Concentration risk — Product: fresh shell eggs (94.3%); Target reached (-7.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CALM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $88.
What does Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. do?Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States, with a flock of...
Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the United States, with a flock of approximately 48.3 million layers and 11.5 million pullets and breeders as of May 31, 2025. Fresh shell eggs made up 94.3% to 95.3% of net sales over the last three fiscal years, and the company's largest customer, Walmart (including Sam's Club), accounted for 33.6% of fiscal 2025 net sales dollars, with its top three customers together at 49.2%.