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Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. (including Sam's Club) (33.6%); Concentration risk — Commodity: feed costs.

Cal-Maine Foods is the largest US producer and distributor of shell eggs, with 48.3 million layers and an integrated flock of pullets and breeders as of May 2025. Shell egg sales represent approximately 94-95% of net sales; Walmart (including Sam's Club) accounted for 33.6% of... Read more

$76.88+2.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#5 of 7 Farm Products
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.05%
IncomeYield6.25%(5y avg 4.81%)Payout54.98%sustainable
Stop $71.58Target $78.89(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$88.00+14.5%4 analysts
$78.89our TP
$76.88price
$88.00mean
$100

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. (including Sam's Club) (33.6%); Concentration risk — Commodity: feed costs. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Margin of safety: 64%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. (including Sam's Club) (33.6%)
Concentration risk — Commodity: feed costs
Earnings expected to decline ~75% (cyclical peak)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.4
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA2.6
Profit Mgn20.1%
ROE27.3%
Rev Growth-53.0%
Beta0.27
Dividend6.25%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWalmart Inc. (including Sam's Club)34%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customer, Walmart Inc. (including Sam’s Club), accounted for 33.6%, 34.0% and 34.2% of net sales dollars for fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop three customers49%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top three customers accounted for an aggregate of 49.2%, 49.0% and 50.1% of our net sales dollars for fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHCommodityfeed costs
    10-K Item 1A: 'Feed costs are the largest element of our shell egg (farm) production cost, ranging from 53% to 63% of total farm production cost in the last five fiscal years.'
  • HIGHProductfresh shell eggs
    10-K Item 1A: 'The production and sale of fresh shell eggs, which accounted for 94.3% to 95.3% of our net sales in our last three fiscal years'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOW
    Dudley Wooley appointed as independent Class III director at Cal-Maine Foods, effective approximately March 31, 2026, to serve until the 2027 annual meeting. Compensation includes annual retainer and RSA grant vesting January 12, 2029.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -53.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.8
Bollinger
4.3
Support Resistance
4.5
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $72.43Resistance $80.50

Price Targets

$72
$79
A.Upside+2.6%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 21x vs trail 5x (4.0x)
! Target reached (-2.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CALM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. (including Sam's Club) (33.6%); Concentration risk — Commodity: feed costs. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $78.89 (+2.6%), stop $71.58 (−7.4%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CALM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $78.89 (+2.6% upside). Target $78.89 (+2.6%), stop $71.58 (−7.4%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $71.58.

What are the risks of investing in CALM?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. (including Sam's Club) (33.6%); Concentration risk — Commodity: feed costs; Earnings expected to decline ~75% (cyclical peak).

Is CALM overvalued or undervalued?

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.4 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CALM?

11 analysts cover CALM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. do?Cal-Maine Foods is the largest US producer and distributor of shell eggs, with 48.3 million layers and an integrated...

Cal-Maine Foods is the largest US producer and distributor of shell eggs, with 48.3 million layers and an integrated flock of pullets and breeders as of May 2025. Shell egg sales represent approximately 94-95% of net sales; Walmart (including Sam's Club) accounted for 33.6% of net sales in fiscal 2025, making it the dominant single customer.

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