Cal-Maine sits at a cyclical earnings peak with consensus expecting a roughly 75% decline in profits ahead and the stock trading above its near-term resistance target — the reward-to-risk geometry is deeply unfavorable and a confirmed technical downtrend reinforces the case for caution.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Cyclical Earnings Decline Ahead↑Improving
- Price Above Resistance Negative Ratio↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Cal-Maine Foods is the largest U.S. producer and marketer of fresh shell eggs, which made up 94.3%-95.3% of net sales over the last three fiscal years, including a growing cage-free line (22.5% of shell egg sales in fiscal 2025). Its top three customers made up 49.2% of fiscal... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Cal-Maine Foods' largest customer, Walmart (including Sam's Club), accounted for 33.6% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with its top three customers together representing 49.2%. Fresh shell eggs made up 94.3% to 95.3% of net sales over the past three fiscal years, produced from a total flock of approximately 48.3 million layers and 11.5 million pullets and breeders as of May 31, 2025, with specialty eggs (cage-free, organic, free-range, and similar) representing 27.6% of fiscal 2025 shell-egg revenue.
Cal-Maine prices most conventional shell eggs using formulas tied to independently quoted regional wholesale market prices (from sources like Urner Barry and USDA) or grain-based and cost-plus arrangements, while specialty eggs are typically negotiated directly with customers and priced with less volatility. Feed — primarily corn and soybean meal — represented 53.4% of fiscal 2025 farm production costs, and the company manufactures the vast majority of its own feed at mills near its production plants. Beyond conventional and specialty shell eggs, Cal-Maine markets branded eggs through its membership in the Eggland's Best cooperative (accounting for about 50% of EB-branded and 46% of Land O'Lakes-branded egg sales nationwide) and its own Farmhouse Eggs, 4-Grain, Sunups, and Sunny Meadow brands, alongside private-label products. The company has expanded into egg products and prepared foods through a majority stake in Crepini Foods and its post-fiscal-year-end acquisition of Echo Lake Foods for approximately $258 million.
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Cal-Maine's pricing model is under direct government scrutiny: in March 2025, the company received a civil investigative demand from the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division as part of a widely publicized investigation into the causes of nationwide egg-price increases. The 10-K also discloses that recent high egg prices — driven largely by HPAI-related supply losses — have already led customers to press for changes to Cal-Maine's longstanding market-based pricing formulas. With Walmart alone representing 33.6% of net sales, any customer-driven shift away from those formulas, combined with continued regulatory attention, could pressure margins independent of the underlying wholesale egg market.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
From Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cal-Maine (NASDAQ:CALM) Misses Q2 CY2026 Sales Expectations - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CALM) Cal-Maine Foods Posts Fiscal Q4 Loss $0.76 a Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.08 EPS - marketscreener. — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CALM) Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Reports Q4 Revenue $552.6M, vs. FactSet Est of $563.8M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Tesla Stock Is in the Calm Before the Storm - Barron's — Barron's neutral
- NEWS US futures keep the calm for now but the coast isn't clear yet - investingLive — investingLive neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T20:52:02Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -49.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $64.64. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.17 (-5.2% upside). Prior stop was $64.64. Stop-loss: $64.64.
Cyclical trap - fwd PE 31x vs trail 11x (2.9x); Target reached (-5.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 30.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CALM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $75.
What does Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. do?Cal-Maine Foods is the largest U.S. producer and marketer of fresh shell eggs, which made up 94.3%-95.3% of net sales...
Cal-Maine Foods is the largest U.S. producer and marketer of fresh shell eggs, which made up 94.3%-95.3% of net sales over the last three fiscal years, including a growing cage-free line (22.5% of shell egg sales in fiscal 2025). Its top three customers made up 49.2% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with Walmart (including Sam's Club) alone at 33.6%, and about 86% of shell egg revenue came from retail customers.