A high-quality consumer defensive franchise with strong margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the current price has closed virtually all available upside with only 0.4% to the resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.08; supply chain concentration and weak earnings growth add meaningful downside risk for any new position.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Franchise→Stable
- Upside Essentially Exhausted→Stable
- Supply Chain Concentration Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-A) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $26.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.5/10.
Brown-Forman manufactures, markets, and sells a portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine brands — led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, along with Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, and el Jimador — sold in over 170 countries. The United... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $26.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey anchors Brown-Forman's portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine brands, with the United States supplying 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales and Mexico, Germany, Australia, and the United Kingdom each contributing 4-7%. The company's two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively, and Brown-Forman employs approximately 5,000 people across six continents, including 2,000 in the United States.
Brown-Forman sells through a mix of owned distribution companies in 16 countries, third-party distributors under fixed-term contracts, and direct sales to state governments in U.S. control states, with routes-to-market adapted by country regulatory structure. Key agricultural inputs — including agave, barley, corn, and wood for barrels — are exposed to weather and commodity-market swings, and the company sources oak barrels from an external supplier after closing its last remaining barrel-making operation, while a single producer supplies most of its glass bottle requirements. Brown-Forman competes against larger diversified spirits companies such as Diageo and Pernod Ricard, along with a growing field of craft distillers in the United States.
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Brown-Forman's April 2025 disclosure shows how quickly retaliatory trade measures can reach the shelf: after the United States announced a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, several Canadian provinces removed all American beverage alcohol, including Jack Daniel's, from store shelves in March 2025. Because the company sells directly to provincial governments in Canada rather than through independent distributors, a single policy decision by a handful of provincial liquor boards can eliminate access to an entire national market overnight — a concentration of distribution control the 10-K discloses separately from its input-cost and supplier risk factors.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- LOWCustomerlargest customer13%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.'
- LOWCustomersecond-largest customer11%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle glass producer10-K Item 1A: 'a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters elected EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who will retire effective May 1, 2026. Peters joins from Whirlpool Corporation, where he was EVP, Enterprise Transformation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $26.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $24.73. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.05 (+6.7% upside). Prior stop was $24.73. Stop-loss: $24.73.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Weak growth.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, markets, and sells a portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine...
Brown-Forman manufactures, markets, and sells a portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine brands — led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, along with Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, and el Jimador — sold in over 170 countries. The United States generated 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, and the Brown family controls more than 50% of the company's voting stock as a New York Stock Exchange-designated controlled company.