A high-quality consumer defensive franchise with strong margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the current price has closed virtually all available upside with only 0.4% to the resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.08; supply chain concentration and weak earnings growth add meaningful downside risk for any new position.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Franchise→Stable
- Upside Essentially Exhausted→Stable
- Supply Chain Concentration Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-A) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $28.90: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets a portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, selling in over 170 countries. The U.S. accounted for 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with the Brown... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $28.90: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman's portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine brands is anchored by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, the top-selling American whiskey worldwide and the primary driver of the company's revenue. The United States generated 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with the rest spread across more than 170 countries, led by Mexico (7%), Germany (6%), and Australia (5%). The company employs approximately 5,000 people across six continents.
Brown-Forman earns revenue almost entirely from branded beverage-alcohol volume rather than private label or contract manufacturing, selling through a route-to-consumer model that varies by market: in the United States it sells to distributors or, in control states, directly to state governments, while outside the U.S. it operates owned distribution companies in markets including Australia, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and the United Kingdom (adding Italy in May 2025) alongside third-party distributors under fixed-term contracts and government-controlled sales in Canada. Two customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025. Key input costs include agave, barley, corn, and rye for distillation plus glass, aluminum, and cartons for packaging; whiskeys, tequilas, and rums require multi-year aging, so inventory runs larger relative to sales than in most consumer businesses. The company competes against Bacardi, Diageo, and Pernod Ricard, among other global spirits makers, primarily at premium-and-above price points.
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Brown-Forman's single greatest financial risk is brand-specific: the 10-K identifies Jack Daniel's as the primary driver of the company's revenue, meaning reputational damage to one trademark could disproportionately affect total results in a way few diversified competitors face with any single brand. That concentration is compounded by ownership structure — the Brown family holds more than 50% of voting stock, making Brown-Forman a controlled company under NYSE rules, exempt from certain independent-board requirements that apply to widely held peers. Separately, the company is unwinding a legacy relationship: it ended its sales, marketing, and distribution agreement for the licensed Korbel champagne and brandy brands, effective June 30, 2025.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, and the other 56% were outside of the United States.'
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel’s family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue and Jack Daniel’s is an iconic global trademark with a loyal consumer fan base.'
- LOWCustomertop-2 customers (13% and 11%)13%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Leanne D. Cunningham will retire effective May 1, 2026; James W. Peters, most recently EVP Enterprise Transformation at Whirlpool, was elected EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026 as her successor. Clean, planned handoff.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $28.90: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $27.12. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $29.50 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $27.12. Stop-loss: $27.12.
Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 18.9 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets a portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail,...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets a portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, selling in over 170 countries. The U.S. accounted for 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with the Brown family controlling more than 50% of voting stock; the company employs approximately 5,000 people across six continents.