A high-quality consumer defensive franchise with strong margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the current price has closed virtually all available upside with only 0.4% to the resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.08; supply chain concentration and weak earnings growth add meaningful downside risk for any new position.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Franchise→Stable
- Upside Essentially Exhausted→Stable
- Supply Chain Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-A) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.71: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak growth.
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and sells beverage alcohol products across more than 40 spirit, ready-to-drink, and wine brands in over 170 countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of whiskeys alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, and Herradura and el Jimador... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.71: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman markets more than 40 spirit, ready-to-drink, and wine brands in over 170 countries, anchored by the Jack Daniel's family of whiskeys alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, and el Jimador. The United States generated 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales versus 56% from international markets, and the company's two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively. Brown-Forman employed approximately 5,000 people across six continents as of fiscal 2025, including roughly 2,000 in the United States.
Brown-Forman sells to distributors or, in control states, directly to state governments within the United States, while relying on a mix of owned distribution companies (17 across 18 countries as of May 2025, including a newly launched Italian operation), third-party distributors, and government-controlled channels internationally. Its whiskeys, tequilas, and rums require multi-year aging, forcing the company to forecast demand years in advance and hold larger inventories relative to sales than most consumer goods peers. A single producer supplies most of the company's glass bottle requirements, and Brown-Forman now sources oak barrels from an external supplier after closing its own barrel-making operation. Some of its largest brands, including Jack Daniel's and its tequilas, are distilled at single locations, concentrating production risk at specific sites.
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Brown-Forman's pricing power is being tested by a live trade dispute rather than ordinary input-cost inflation: after the United States announced a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, several Canadian provinces removed all American beverage alcohol, including Jack Daniel's, from store shelves in March 2025 in retaliation. Because Brown-Forman states it may not be able to fully pass tariff-related cost increases through to customers without further eroding shelf presence in retaliating markets, the dispute illustrates how geopolitical retaliation, not just raw-material cost, can directly cut off distribution for a company that depends on government-controlled and provincial retail channels outside the United States.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 26, 2026.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerlargest customer13%10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
- LOWCustomersecond largest customer11%10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- HIGHSuppliersingle glass producer10-K Item 1A: 'a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMBrown-Forman elected James W. Peters EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who is retiring effective May 1, 2026 as previously announced.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.71: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $25.03. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.05 (+5.0% upside). Prior stop was $25.03. Stop-loss: $25.03.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak growth; Below 200-MA (17d, -1.3%).
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and sells beverage alcohol products across more than 40 spirit,...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and sells beverage alcohol products across more than 40 spirit, ready-to-drink, and wine brands in over 170 countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of whiskeys alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, and Herradura and el Jimador tequilas. The United States, its most important market, generated 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales; the Brown family controls more than 50% of voting stock. The company's two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales.