A high-quality consumer defensive franchise with strong margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the current price has closed virtually all available upside with only 0.4% to the resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.08; supply chain concentration and weak earnings growth add meaningful downside risk for any new position.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Franchise→Stable
- Upside Essentially Exhausted→Stable
- Supply Chain Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-A) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass bottle producer; Weak growth.
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells beverage alcohol products — spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails, and wine — under a portfolio of more than 40 brands sold in over 170 countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands, described... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass bottle producer; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman's portfolio of more than 40 spirit, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine brands is led by the Jack Daniel's family, described in the 10-K as the primary driver of its revenue, alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, and el Jimador, sold in over 170 countries. The United States generated 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with the remaining 56% from international markets, and the company's two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.
Brown-Forman earns revenue by manufacturing, distilling, and bottling branded spirits and selling them either to distributors and state governments in the US (where direct-to-consumer sales are generally prohibited) or through owned distribution companies — 17 of them across 18 countries as of May 2025, including a newly launched Italian operation — plus third-party distributors and government-controlled channels internationally. Input costs are tied to agricultural commodities including agave, barley, corn, molasses, rye, and wood, plus packaging materials such as glass bottles, aluminum cans, and closures; a single producer supplies most of the company's glass bottle requirements, and Brown-Forman recently closed its last barrel-making operation, now sourcing oak barrels for aging North American whiskeys externally. Whiskeys, tequilas, and rums must be aged for years before sale, so the company carries unusually large inventories relative to sales, and its tequila supply depends on agave plants that take six to seven years to mature.
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Brown-Forman's packaging supply chain has a specific single point of failure: the 10-K states that only a few glass producers manufacture bottles at the scale the company requires, and a single producer supplies most of its glass needs. Trade policy adds a second, dated pressure point: in March 2025, several Canadian provinces pulled all American beverage alcohol, including Jack Daniel's, from store shelves in retaliation for a 25% US tariff on Canadian goods, showing how trade disputes can translate directly into lost shelf space rather than just higher input costs. Because Jack Daniel's alone is the primary driver of the company's revenue, a prolonged retail boycott in any single major market carries outsized weight.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue and Jack Daniel's is an iconic global trademark with a loyal consumer fan base.'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers13%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, and the other 56% were outside of the United States.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle glass bottle producer10-K Item 1A: 'only a few glass producers make bottles on a scale sufficient for our requirements, and a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMBrown-Forman elected James W. Peters as EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who will retire May 1, 2026 as previously announced. Peters most recently served as EVP, Enterprise Transformation at Whirlpool Corporation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass bottle producer; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $29.12 (+7.3%), stop $25.81 (−5.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $29.12 (+7.3% upside). Target $29.12 (+7.3%), stop $25.81 (−5.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $25.81.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass bottle producer; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells beverage alcohol products — spirits,...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells beverage alcohol products — spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails, and wine — under a portfolio of more than 40 brands sold in over 170 countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands, described in the 10-K as the primary driver of its revenue. The United States accounted for 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, and the company's two largest customers represented approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively; the Brown family controls more than 50% of voting stock.