The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. At $76.75, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%).
Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds >40% US market share and 80% UK market share; coconut water constitutes 96% of revenue. The Americas segment (primarily US) accounts for ~83% of net revenue; products are sourced from ~16 factories across six countries... Read more
Sell if holding. At $76.75, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
Latest news
- Vita Coco Company stock hits all-time high at 61.4 USD - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- Vita Coco Stock Slides Despite Brighter Profit Outlook - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- Vita Coco shares eye record high on growing demand for coconut water (COCO:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Beats Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- Moody Aldrich Partners LLC Sells 25,369 Shares of Vita Coco Company, Inc. $COCO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcoconut water96%10-K Item 1A: 'Our coconut water accounted for 96% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
- HIGHGeographicAmericas segment83%10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial performance is largely dependent on our Americas operating segment, which accounted for approximately 83% of consolidated total net revenue in fiscal year 2025.'
- HIGHCustomerlargest distributor and largest retail-direct customer combined44%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest distributor customer and the largest retail-direct customer together accounted for approximately 44% of our total net sales as of December 31, 2025.'
- HIGHSupplierTetra Pak10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our products are produced and packaged with materials sourced from a single supplier, Tetra Pak.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOWBoard appointed Shelley Broader to Audit Committee and Compensation Committee effective June 3, 2026 (following 2026 Annual Meeting). No departures noted; amendment to earlier 8-K filed January 8, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOWJohn Leahy, Board member since 2019, will retire at 2026 Annual Meeting (June 3, 2026) for personal reasons. No disagreement with company policies. Board size to decrease from 10 to 9 members.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $76.75, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $71.10. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $78.11 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $71.10. Stop-loss: $71.10.
Concentration risk — Product: coconut water (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas segment (83.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 55.4 (forward 37.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover COCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $73.
What does The Vita Coco Company, Inc. do?Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds >40% US market share and 80% UK market share; coconut...
Vita Coco pioneered packaged coconut water in 2004 and holds >40% US market share and 80% UK market share; coconut water constitutes 96% of revenue. The Americas segment (primarily US) accounts for ~83% of net revenue; products are sourced from ~16 factories across six countries and packaged largely using Tetra Pak materials.