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Diageo plc (DEO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Sell if holding. At $79.82, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and... Read more

$79.82+12.9% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#3 of 3 Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Stop $76.55Target $90.11(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$103.57+29.8%7 analysts
$90.11our TP
$79.82price
$103.57mean
$130

Sell if holding. At $79.82, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.9
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$43.0B
EV/EBITDA31.7
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE19.7%
Rev Growth-4.0%
Beta0.30
Dividend4.29%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$40-49.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.5
Earnings Growth
2.6
Declining revenue: -4%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.9
Bollinger
3.6
52w Position
4.2
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 98d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $72.30Resistance $82.78

Price Targets

$77
$90
A.Upside+12.9%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (98d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DEO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $79.82, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $76.55. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the DEO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $90.11 (+12.9% upside). Prior stop was $76.55. Stop-loss: $76.55.

What are the risks of investing in DEO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is DEO overvalued or undervalued?

Diageo plc trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DEO?

31 analysts cover DEO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $104.

What does Diageo plc do?Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic...

Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and Canadian whisky, US and Indian whisky, Chinese whisky, cachaça, tequila, brandy, and Chinese white spirit beverages. The company also provides ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic beverages. Its principal brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowell's. The company was formerly known as Guinness plc and changed its name to Diageo plc in February 1998. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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