Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. At $26.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Jack Daniel's family of brands; Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider.
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets 40+ spirit, RTD cocktail, and wine brands—led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey (#1-selling American whiskey globally)—sold in 170+ countries with owned distribution in 18 countries. The United States accounted for 44% of net... Read more
Sell if holding. At $26.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Jack Daniel's family of brands; Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'Our business performance depends substantially on the continued health of the Jack Daniel family of brands.'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-2 customers10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
- HIGHSupplierprimary glass provider10-K Item 1A: 'a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements. Inability of our primary glass provider to produce sufficient quantities to meet our needs would increase our cost to produce'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters elected as EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham who retires May 1, 2026. Peters previously served as EVP, Enterprise Transformation at Whirlpool Corporation since January 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $26.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Jack Daniel's family of brands; Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.41. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.77 (+9.6% upside). Prior stop was $24.41. Stop-loss: $24.41.
Concentration risk — Product: Jack Daniel's family of brands; Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 15.3 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets 40+ spirit, RTD cocktail, and wine brands—led by Jack Daniel's...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets 40+ spirit, RTD cocktail, and wine brands—led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey (#1-selling American whiskey globally)—sold in 170+ countries with owned distribution in 18 countries. The United States accounted for 44% of net sales in fiscal 2025; two largest customers represented ~13% and ~11% of consolidated net sales.