Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. At $25.68, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Jack Daniel's family of brands; Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider.
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets premium spirits in 170+ countries led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey plus Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, and Diplomatico. The U.S. accounted for 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales; two largest customers accounted for... Read more
Sell if holding. At $25.68, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Jack Daniel's family of brands; Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue'
- HIGHSupplierprimary glass provider10-K Item 1A: 'only a few glass producers make bottles on a scale sufficient for our requirements, and a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters elected as EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding retiring CFO Leanne D. Cunningham (effective May 1, 2026). Peters previously served as EVP at Whirlpool Corporation. Clean handoff with named successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $25.68, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Jack Daniel's family of brands; Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $23.94. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.06 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $23.94. Stop-loss: $23.94.
Concentration risk — Product: Jack Daniel's family of brands; Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets premium spirits in 170+ countries led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets premium spirits in 170+ countries led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey plus Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, and Diplomatico. The U.S. accounted for 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales; two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales respectively.