A well-run consumer defensive business with 18% operating margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the stock has moved above its near-term technical target — presenting negative net upside — while 3 of the past 4 quarterly earnings reports were misses including the most recent; the setup favors patience rather than fresh exposure.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Bearish Signal→Stable
- Quality Franchise At Stretched Multiple→Stable
- Price Above Technical Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets spirits under 40+ brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, selling in over 170 countries with 44% of net sales in the U.S. in fiscal 2025. Revenue is driven by branded premium spirits sold through wholesalers, state... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman sold products across 170-plus countries in fiscal 2025, with the United States contributing 44% of net sales, Mexico 7%, Germany 6%, Australia 5%, and the United Kingdom 4%. The portfolio spans more than 40 spirit, ready-to-drink (RTD), and wine brands, anchored by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey — ranked the #1 selling American whiskey globally by IWSR 2024 data. The company employed approximately 5,000 people on six continents.
Brown-Forman earns revenue from branded premium-and-above spirits sold through wholesalers, state governments in U.S. control states, and 17 owned distribution companies across 18 countries including Germany, Japan, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and France. Competitors named in the 10-K include Diageo PLC, Pernod Ricard SA, Bacardi Limited, and Suntory Global Spirits. Oak barrels — after the company closed its last barrel-making operation — are now sourced entirely from an external supplier, and a single glass producer supplies most of the company's bottle requirements. Agricultural inputs including agave, corn, and rye are subject to weather disruption and multi-year lead times; tequila supply requires agave plants to reach full maturity over approximately six to seven years. The fourth calendar quarter represented 29% of reported net sales in fiscal 2025.
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Trade policy risk is concrete for a portfolio sold across 170-plus markets: in March 2025, several Canadian provinces removed all American beverage alcohol from store shelves — including Jack Daniel's — after the United States announced a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. The 10-K notes that if newly announced tariffs persist, cost of goods sold could increase and gross margins may be pressured if those costs cannot be passed through to customers. Jack Daniel's and the company's tequilas are each distilled at single locations, meaning a catastrophic disruption at either facility could reduce supply for an extended period.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-29Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. Cl B stock underperforms Tuesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Analyst Lowers Brown‑Forman (BF-B) Price Target Ahead of Q4 Report - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey negative
Generated 2026-06-30T00:04:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue'
- MEDIUMSupplierprimary glass supplier10-K Item 1A: 'a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters elected EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham who will retire May 1, 2026. Peters previously served as EVP Enterprise Transformation at Whirlpool Corporation. Clean succession; retirement cited as departure reason.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $26.38. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.44 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $26.38. Stop-loss: $26.38.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 18.3 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets spirits under 40+ brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey,...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, and markets spirits under 40+ brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, selling in over 170 countries with 44% of net sales in the U.S. in fiscal 2025. Revenue is driven by branded premium spirits sold through wholesalers, state governments, and 17 owned distribution companies in 18 countries, employing approximately 5,000 people.