A well-run consumer defensive business with 18% operating margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the stock has moved above its near-term technical target — presenting negative net upside — while 3 of the past 4 quarterly earnings reports were misses including the most recent; the setup favors patience rather than fresh exposure.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Bearish Signal↓Deteriorating
- Quality Franchise At Stretched Multiple→Stable
- Price Above Technical Target↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass bottle producer.
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells beverage alcohol products — spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails, and wine — under a portfolio of more than 40 brands sold in over 170 countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands, described... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass bottle producer. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman's portfolio of more than 40 spirit, ready-to-drink cocktail, and wine brands is led by the Jack Daniel's family, described in the 10-K as the primary driver of its revenue, alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, and el Jimador, sold in over 170 countries. The United States generated 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with the remaining 56% from international markets, and the company's two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.
Brown-Forman earns revenue by manufacturing, distilling, and bottling branded spirits and selling them either to distributors and state governments in the US (where direct-to-consumer sales are generally prohibited) or through owned distribution companies — 17 of them across 18 countries as of May 2025, including a newly launched Italian operation — plus third-party distributors and government-controlled channels internationally. Input costs are tied to agricultural commodities including agave, barley, corn, molasses, rye, and wood, plus packaging materials such as glass bottles, aluminum cans, and closures; a single producer supplies most of the company's glass bottle requirements, and Brown-Forman recently closed its last barrel-making operation, now sourcing oak barrels for aging North American whiskeys externally. Whiskeys, tequilas, and rums must be aged for years before sale, so the company carries unusually large inventories relative to sales, and its tequila supply depends on agave plants that take six to seven years to mature.
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Brown-Forman's packaging supply chain has a specific single point of failure: the 10-K states that only a few glass producers manufacture bottles at the scale the company requires, and a single producer supplies most of its glass needs. Trade policy adds a second, dated pressure point: in March 2025, several Canadian provinces pulled all American beverage alcohol, including Jack Daniel's, from store shelves in retaliation for a 25% US tariff on Canadian goods, showing how trade disputes can translate directly into lost shelf space rather than just higher input costs. Because Jack Daniel's alone is the primary driver of the company's revenue, a prolonged retail boycott in any single major market carries outsized weight.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-28Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. Cl B stock underperforms Tuesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Analyst Lowers Brown‑Forman (BF-B) Price Target Ahead of Q4 Report - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey negative
Generated 2026-08-29T10:57:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue and Jack Daniel's is an iconic global trademark with a loyal consumer fan base.'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers13%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, and the other 56% were outside of the United States.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle glass bottle producer10-K Item 1A: 'only a few glass producers make bottles on a scale sufficient for our requirements, and a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMBrown-Forman elected James W. Peters as EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who will retire May 1, 2026 as previously announced. Peters most recently served as EVP, Enterprise Transformation at Whirlpool Corporation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass bottle producer. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $26.31. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.72 (-7.3% upside). Prior stop was $26.31. Stop-loss: $26.31.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass bottle producer; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 18.3 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells beverage alcohol products — spirits,...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells beverage alcohol products — spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails, and wine — under a portfolio of more than 40 brands sold in over 170 countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands, described in the 10-K as the primary driver of its revenue. The United States accounted for 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, and the company's two largest customers represented approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively; the Brown family controls more than 50% of voting stock.