A well-run consumer defensive business with 18% operating margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the stock has moved above its near-term technical target — presenting negative net upside — while 3 of the past 4 quarterly earnings reports were misses including the most recent; the setup favors patience rather than fresh exposure.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Bearish Signal↑Improving
- Quality Franchise At Stretched Multiple→Stable
- Price Above Technical Target↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 12, 2026
Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Brown-Forman makes, markets and sells beverage alcohol from a portfolio of more than 40 spirit and ready-to-drink brands, led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, el Jimador and Herradura. It employs about 4,900 people on six continents and sells... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman employs approximately 4,900 people on six continents, about 1,900 of them in the United States, and manages a portfolio of more than 40 spirit and ready-to-drink cocktail brands. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, described as the number one selling American whiskey in the world, anchors the range alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, el Jimador, Herradura, Diplomático and Chambord. According to International Wine & Spirit Research, it is the largest American-owned premium-plus spirits company, and the Brown family owns more than 50% of its voting stock.
The company distills, bottles, imports, exports and markets beverage alcohol under recognized brands, then reaches consumers through varied route-to-consumer models. In the United States it sells to distributors for resale to retail outlets or e-commerce retailers, or to state governments in states that control alcohol sales. Outside the U.S. it uses a mix of models and relies on third parties in many markets, while owning and operating 17 distribution companies in 18 countries. Marketing spend covers media advertising across TV, radio, print, outdoor, digital and social channels, consumer and trade promotions, sponsorships and visitor center programs at its distilleries. The filing notes that large retail customers often seek lower pricing, offer competing private label products and may gain buying power, which could affect financial results. Its founding brand, Old Forester, dates to 1870, and the Jack Daniel Distillery began converting byproducts to renewable energy and fertilizer through an anaerobic digester in fiscal 2026.
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Brand concentration and distribution consolidation form the central risks. The 10-K identifies the Jack Daniel's family of brands as the primary driver of revenue, so a significant or sustained decline in Jack Daniel's sales, including from negative publicity, would have a negative effect on financial results. Consolidation among distributors and wholesalers could reduce attention allocated to Brown-Forman brands, erode margins, and shrink the number of brands a distributor carries, while transitions from third-party to owned distribution add execution risk in each affected region.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman B (BF.B) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Brown-Forman B (BF.B) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-10-28T11:58:43Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel’s family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel’s family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -1.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $26.99. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $25.43 reached (−10.8% from $28.51); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $26.99. Stop-loss: $26.99.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman makes, markets and sells beverage alcohol from a portfolio of more than 40 spirit and ready-to-drink...
Brown-Forman makes, markets and sells beverage alcohol from a portfolio of more than 40 spirit and ready-to-drink brands, led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, el Jimador and Herradura. It employs about 4,900 people on six continents and sells through U.S. distributors, state governments in control states, and 17 owned distribution companies in 18 countries. The Jack Daniel's family is the primary driver of revenue.