A well-run consumer defensive business with 18% operating margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the stock has moved above its near-term technical target — presenting negative net upside — while 3 of the past 4 quarterly earnings reports were misses including the most recent; the setup favors patience rather than fresh exposure.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Bearish Signal↓Deteriorating
- Quality Franchise At Stretched Multiple→Stable
- Price Above Technical Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Brown-Forman Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells a variety of alcohol beverages. The company provides spirits, wines, whiskey spirits, whiskey-based flavored liqueurs, ready-to-drink cocktails,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman sold its portfolio of more than 40 spirit, RTD, and wine brands in over 170 countries during fiscal 2025, with the United States - its largest market - generating 44% of net sales and Mexico, Germany, Australia, and the U.K. each contributing 4-7%. The two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales. Brown-Forman employed approximately 5,000 people across six continents as of fiscal year-end 2025.
Brown-Forman earns revenue selling premium-and-above beverage alcohol - led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands, its primary revenue driver, alongside Woodford Reserve and Old Forester bourbons, Herradura and el Jimador tequilas, Diplomático rum, Gin Mare, Scotch whiskies The Glendronach, Benriach, and Glenglassaugh, and Chambord liqueur - through a mix of owned distribution companies in 17-18 countries and third-party distributors elsewhere, plus sales to U.S. distributors or state-controlled alcohol systems and Canadian provincial governments. Its Jack & Coke ready-to-drink partnership with The Coca-Cola Company, launched in 2022, has expanded to more than 25 markets. Because whiskeys, tequilas, and rums require years of aging, Brown-Forman carries inventory well in excess of near-term sales, forecasting agave and grain needs years ahead of bottling. Key competitors include Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, Campari, LVMH, Rémy Cointreau, and Suntory Global Spirits.
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A distinct risk beyond brand-health is trade policy: in March 2025, several Canadian provinces pulled all American beverage alcohol, including Jack Daniel's, from store shelves in retaliation for a U.S.-announced 25% tariff on Canadian goods, illustrating how quickly a single tariff action can translate into a market-wide de-listing rather than just a cost increase. The filing also discloses that Brown-Forman ended its Korbel sales, marketing, and distribution agreement effective June 30, 2025, and closed its last remaining barrel-making operation, shifting oak barrel sourcing entirely to an external supplier - two portfolio and supply-chain changes layered on top of tariff exposure that together concentrate more of the company's cost structure with outside counterparties.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-08Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman B (BF.B) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Brown-Forman B (BF.B) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-10-08T11:47:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1A: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers13%10-K Item 1A: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMAnnounced James W. Peters as EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who retires May 1, 2026. Clean handoff.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $24.78. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.51 (-2.0% upside). Prior stop was $24.78. Stop-loss: $24.78.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets,...
Brown-Forman Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells a variety of alcohol beverages. The company provides spirits, wines, whiskey spirits, whiskey-based flavored liqueurs, ready-to-drink cocktails, ready-to-pour products, vodkas, tequilas, gin, brandy, rum, bourbons, and liqueurs. The company offers its products primarily under the Jack Daniel's, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Gentleman Jack, Herradura, el Jimador, Fords Gin, The Glendronach, Chambord, Coopers' Craft, Diplomático, Benriach, Glenglassaugh, and Slane brands. It is also involved in the sale of used barrels, and bulk whiskey and wine; and provision of contract bottling services. The company serves retail customers and consumers through distributors and state governments; and retailers, wholesalers, and provincial governments directly. It operates in the United States, Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, Spain, France, Mexico, Poland, Brazil, Türkiye, and internationally. Brown-Forman Corporation was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.