A well-run consumer defensive business with 18% operating margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the stock has moved above its near-term technical target — presenting negative net upside — while 3 of the past 4 quarterly earnings reports were misses including the most recent; the setup favors patience rather than fresh exposure.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Bearish Signal↓Deteriorating
- Quality Franchise At Stretched Multiple→Stable
- Price Above Technical Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.58 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer.
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles and markets more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail and wine brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, the top-selling American whiskey worldwide. The company sold products in over 170 countries in fiscal 2025, with the... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.58 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman's portfolio of more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink and wine brands is anchored by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, the top-selling American whiskey worldwide, with the United States generating 44% of net sales in fiscal 2025 versus 47% in fiscal 2023 as international markets including Mexico (7%), Germany (6%) and Australia (5%) grow their share. The company's two largest customers represented 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, and Brown-Forman employs approximately 5,000 people globally, including 800 at its Louisville, Kentucky headquarters.
Brown-Forman sells through varying route-to-consumer models depending on local regulation: in the United States, products move through distributors or, in control states, directly to state governments before reaching retail; internationally, the company owns and operates distribution companies in 17 countries, including Germany, Mexico and the United Kingdom, while relying on third-party distributors and government-controlled channels elsewhere. Because whiskeys, tequilas and rums require aging periods, some spanning more than a decade for Scotch whisky, inventories of maturing spirits run larger relative to sales than in most consumer categories, making supply-demand forecasting a persistent operational challenge. Principal raw materials include agave, barley, corn, rye and glass, with a single supplier providing most of the company's glass bottle requirements. Brown-Forman competes against Diageo and Pernod Ricard, among other major global spirits companies, primarily in premium and above price points.
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Brown-Forman's results also hinge on trade policy: in March 2025, several Canadian provinces pulled all American beverage alcohol, including Jack Daniel's, from store shelves in retaliation for a 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian goods, showing how tariff escalation can cut off retail access before any cost impact even registers. The 10-K separately discloses that a single supplier provides most of the company's glass bottle requirements, a concentration that could constrain packaging supply and raise costs if that relationship were disrupted. If broader tariffs on imported inputs persist, Brown-Forman may be unable to fully pass the added cost through to customers, compressing gross margins.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 19, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-20Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. Cl B stock underperforms Tuesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Analyst Lowers Brown‑Forman (BF-B) Price Target Ahead of Q4 Report - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey negative
Generated 2026-07-20T05:32:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, and the other 56% were outside of the United States.'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle glass producer10-K Item 1A: 'a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters appointed EVP & CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who will retire effective May 1, 2026 as previously announced. Peters most recently served as EVP, Enterprise Transformation at Whirlpool Corporation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.58 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $24.15. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.51 (-2.2% upside). Prior stop was $24.15. Stop-loss: $24.15.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles and markets more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail and wine brands...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles and markets more than 40 spirits, ready-to-drink cocktail and wine brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, the top-selling American whiskey worldwide. The company sold products in over 170 countries in fiscal 2025, with the United States generating 44% of net sales and its two largest customers accounting for 13% and 11% of net sales. The Brown family controls more than 50% of voting stock, making Brown-Forman a controlled company under NYSE rules.