A well-run consumer defensive business with 18% operating margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the stock has moved above its near-term technical target — presenting negative net upside — while 3 of the past 4 quarterly earnings reports were misses including the most recent; the setup favors patience rather than fresh exposure.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Bearish Signal→Stable
- Quality Franchise At Stretched Multiple→Stable
- Price Above Technical Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
Brown-Forman makes and sells spirits and wine across brands including Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura and el Jimador tequilas, and Chambord, distributed in over 170 countries. The United States remains its largest market at 44% of... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman sells spirits and wine under brands including Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura and el Jimador tequilas, and Chambord across more than 170 countries. The United States, its most important market, accounted for 44% of net sales in fiscal 2025, down from 47% two years earlier, while its two largest customers represented approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales.
Brown-Forman earns revenue primarily by selling branded spirits and wine to distributors, who then sell to retail customers and consumers — in the United States, alcohol regulation generally bars manufacturers from selling directly to consumers, so the company sells through distributors or, in control states, directly to state governments. Outside the United States, Brown-Forman operates owned distribution companies in markets including Australia, Germany, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, launching its own Italian distribution organization in May 2025, while relying on third-party distributors under fixed-term contracts elsewhere and selling to provincial governments in Canada. The company ended its contract to sell, market, and distribute Korbel, a brand it does not own, effective June 30, 2025. Growth strategy centers on fast-growing spirits categories, product and packaging innovation, and expanding e-commerce and digital marketing, particularly in the U.S. market that remains central to long-term results.
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Brown-Forman's structural distribution model is shifting toward direct control: the company already owns distribution companies in sixteen named markets including Mexico, Germany, and the United Kingdom, and added Italy to that list in May 2025, replacing third-party distributor relationships with direct sales to retailers and wholesalers. That shift reduces reliance on external distribution partners in owned markets, even as the company's customer base remains diffuse — no single customer accounted for 10% or more of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025 apart from its two largest, at 13% and 11%, respectively — leaving the U.S. market's declining but still-dominant 44% share of net sales as the more material concentration to watch.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-18Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman B (BF.B) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Brown-Forman B (BF.B) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-09-18T12:07:06Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, and the other 56% were outside of the United States.'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMBrown-Forman elected James W. Peters as EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who is retiring from the company effective May 1, 2026. Clean handoff with successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $28.48 (+7.5%), stop $24.90 (−6.4%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.48 (-4.0% upside). Target $28.48 (+7.5%), stop $24.90 (−6.4%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $24.90.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman makes and sells spirits and wine across brands including Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford...
Brown-Forman makes and sells spirits and wine across brands including Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura and el Jimador tequilas, and Chambord, distributed in over 170 countries. The United States remains its largest market at 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales (down from 47% two years earlier), sold via distributors and state governments, with its two largest customers at 13% and 11% of net sales.