A well-run consumer defensive business with 18% operating margins and a near-perfect Piotroski financial-health score, but the stock has moved above its near-term technical target — presenting negative net upside — while 3 of the past 4 quarterly earnings reports were misses including the most recent; the setup favors patience rather than fresh exposure.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Bearish Signal↓Deteriorating
- Quality Franchise At Stretched Multiple→Stable
- Price Above Technical Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.52 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (56.0%).
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets beverage alcohol brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, el Jimador, and other spirits, RTDs, and wines sold in over 170 countries. The United States accounted... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.52 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (56.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman sells more than 40 spirit, ready-to-drink, and wine brands anchored by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, the top-selling American whiskey worldwide, across more than 170 countries. The United States generated 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales versus 56% from international markets, while the company's two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively, and its roughly 5,000 employees span six continents.
In the United States, where spirits and wine manufacturers generally cannot sell directly to consumers, Brown-Forman sells through distributors or, in control states, to state governments that resell to retailers. Outside the U.S., the company runs owned distribution companies in seventeen markets -- including Germany, Japan, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, plus Italy added in May 2025 -- while relying on third-party distribution partners or government-controlled channels elsewhere, and on provincial governments in Canada. Aging inventory is a structural feature of the business: whiskeys, certain tequilas, and rums must mature for years before sale, so agricultural inputs such as agave, barley, corn, rye, sugar, and wood carry weather-driven supply risk despite none currently being in short supply. Brown-Forman competes against Bacardi, Becle, Davide Campari-Milano, Diageo, LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau, and Suntory Global Spirits, primarily at premium-and-above price points, and remains a Brown-family-controlled company under NYSE rules by virtue of the family's majority voting stake.
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Brown-Forman's own risk factors single out the health of one brand family as the primary swing factor for results: the Jack Daniel's family of brands is described as the primary driver of the company's revenue, so that reputational damage from even an isolated incident, or a failure to keep the brand relevant to new consumers, could weigh materially on financial results. That dependency compounds the company's control-company structure -- the Brown family holds more than 50% of voting stock -- since strategic responses to any Jack Daniel's-specific shock would run through family-controlled governance rather than a fully independent board, a structure the 10-K discloses without quantifying how concentrated Jack Daniel's is within total net sales.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 2, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-09Recent Developments — Brown Forman Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. stock (US1170431092): Guidance Cut and Market Reaction After Q4 Results - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) Stock Down 3.1% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Coca-Cola (KO), Brown-Forman B (BF.B) and BBB Foods, Inc. Class A ( — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Brown-Forman Corp. Cl B stock underperforms Tuesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Analyst Lowers Brown‑Forman (BF-B) Price Target Ahead of Q4 Report - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey negative
Generated 2026-08-09T08:47:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicoutside the United States56%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, and the other 56% were outside of the United States.'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, and the other 56% were outside of the United States.'
- LOWCustomerlargest customer13%10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
- LOWCustomersecond-largest customer11%10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters (ex-Whirlpool EVP) elected EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham, who will retire effective May 1, 2026. Clean, previously-announced succession.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.52 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (56.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $26.54. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $29.10 (-12.3% upside). Prior stop was $26.54. Stop-loss: $26.54.
Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover BF-B with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets beverage alcohol brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee...
Brown-Forman manufactures, distills, bottles, and markets beverage alcohol brands led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, alongside Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, el Jimador, and other spirits, RTDs, and wines sold in over 170 countries. The United States accounted for 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with the remaining 56% from international markets, and the company's two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively.