Brown Forman Inc (BF-A) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.37: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.7/10.
Brown-Forman manufactures and markets beverage alcohol across 170+ countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands—the #1 selling American whiskey globally—along with Woodford Reserve, Herradura tequilas, Old Forester, and roughly 40 other spirit and RTD brands. The United... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.37: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.7/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About Brown Forman Inc
About Brown Forman Inc
Brown-Forman generated 56% of net sales outside the United States in fiscal 2025, with the U.S. at 44%, Mexico at 7%, Germany at 6%, Australia at 5%, and the United Kingdom at 4% of consolidated net sales. The company's Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of revenue across a portfolio of more than 40 spirits and ready-to-drink products sold in over 170 countries, employing approximately 5,000 people on six continents, including 2,000 in the United States and 800 in Louisville, Kentucky.
Brown-Forman earns revenue from branded spirits volume sold through distributors, state governments in control states, and 17 owned-distribution companies operating in 18 countries as of May 2025. Input costs span agricultural commodities — agave, corn, barley, rye, molasses, and wood — plus glass and aluminum packaging. The company recently closed its last remaining barrel-making operation and now sources all oak barrels for North American whiskeys from a single external supplier. A single glass producer supplies most of the company's glass requirements. Woodford Reserve sold over 1.8 million nine-liter cases in fiscal year ended April 30, 2025. Principal competitors include Diageo PLC, Pernod Ricard SA, and Becle S.A.B. de C.V. at premium-and-above price points, along with national companies and craft spirit brands in the United States.
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Two raw-material dependencies are material: the company now sources all oak barrels from a single external supplier following closure of its own barrel-making operations, and a single glass producer supplies most of its glass requirements. The 10-K notes that if either supplier could not meet capacity, quality, or timing requirements, it would be difficult and more expensive to produce and deliver products. These single-source exposures are compounded by the inherent inventory risk of an aged-spirits portfolio — Jack Daniel's and the company's tequilas are each distilled at single locations, and Scotch whisky brands require an average of 12 years of maturation.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
From Brown Forman Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductJack Daniel's family of brands10-K Item 1A: 'The Jack Daniel's family of brands is the primary driver of our revenue'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'The United States, our most important market, accounted for 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
- LOWCustomertwo largest customers13%10-K Item 1: 'our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
- HIGHSuppliersingle glass producer10-K Item 1A: 'a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'
- MEDIUMSupplierexternal oak barrel supplier10-K Item 1A: 'we now source our oak barrels in which we age our North American whiskeys from an external supplier'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUMJames W. Peters elected EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham who retires effective May 1, 2026. Peters previously served as EVP, Enterprise Transformation of Whirlpool Corporation since January 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.37: Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.7/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $26.01. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.26 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $26.01. Stop-loss: $26.01.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single glass producer; Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth.
Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.
What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures and markets beverage alcohol across 170+ countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of...
Brown-Forman manufactures and markets beverage alcohol across 170+ countries, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands—the #1 selling American whiskey globally—along with Woodford Reserve, Herradura tequilas, Old Forester, and roughly 40 other spirit and RTD brands. The United States accounted for 44% of net sales in fiscal 2025; revenue is distributed through owned distribution companies in 17 countries, third-party partners, and state-government channels.