Brown Forman Inc (BF-A) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the BF-A stock price target?

Take-profit $30.13 (+10.1% upside). Target $30.13 (+10.1%), stop $25.44 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1.

Q: Is BF-A overvalued or undervalued?

Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about BF-A?

22 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.

Q: What does Brown Forman Inc do?

Brown-Forman manufactures and markets premium spirits under Jack Daniel's, Woodford Reserve, Herradura, el Jimador, Gin Mare, Diplomático, and 40+ other brands, selling in over 170 countries with 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales from the U.S. The two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales respectively. A single glass producer supplies most of the company's glass bottle requirements.

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 3 days ago (May 18, 2026, 1:46 AM ET)

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider; Weak overall score: 4.5/10.

$27.36+10.1% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#3 of 3 Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.77%

IncomeYield3.38%(5y avg 1.81%)Payout52.94%sustainable

Stop $25.44Target $30.13(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider; Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)

Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8

High-quality business

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider

Weak overall score: 4.5/10

Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9

P/E (Fwd)—

Mkt Cap$12.6B

EV/EBITDA12.3

Profit Mgn20.6%

ROE20.4%

Rev Growth2.0%

Beta0.35

Dividend3.38%

Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMCustomertwo largest customers
10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales, respectively'
HIGHSupplierprimary glass provider
10-K Item 1A: 'only a few glass producers make bottles on a scale sufficient for our requirements, and a single producer supplies most of our glass requirements'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
James W. Peters elected EVP and CFO effective March 31, 2026, succeeding Leanne D. Cunningham who retires May 1, 2026. Peters previously served as EVP Enterprise Transformation at Whirlpool. Clean handoff with named successor.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.315%0.64

Quality8.015%1.20

Growth2.615%0.39

Momentum2.810%0.28

Sentiment3.010%0.30

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.310%0.33

Technical Setup5.55%0.28

Risk Profile7.15%0.35

Catalyst4.55%0.23

Overall (Σ contributions)4.50

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

2.3

Revenue Growth

3.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv

1.0

Volume

1.7

Macd

2.7

Ma Position

4.2

Rsi

4.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Erm Sentiment

0.0

Analyst Rating

5.0

Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-19.6%)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

1.7

Quality Rank

3.3

Growth Rank

3.3

GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate

RSI

46 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.14Resistance $30.75

Price Targets

$25

$30

A.Upside+10.1%

A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for BF-A.

The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BF-A stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider; Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.13 (+10.1%), stop $25.44 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BF-A stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.13 (+10.1% upside). Target $30.13 (+10.1%), stop $25.44 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $25.44.

What are the risks of investing in BF-A?

Concentration risk — Supplier: primary glass provider; Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Weak growth.

Is BF-A overvalued or undervalued?

Brown Forman Inc trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BF-A?

22 analysts cover BF-A with a consensus score of 2.7/5.

What does Brown Forman Inc do?Brown-Forman manufactures and markets premium spirits under Jack Daniel's, Woodford Reserve, Herradura, el Jimador, Gin...

Brown-Forman manufactures and markets premium spirits under Jack Daniel's, Woodford Reserve, Herradura, el Jimador, Gin Mare, Diplomático, and 40+ other brands, selling in over 170 countries with 44% of fiscal 2025 net sales from the U.S. The two largest customers accounted for approximately 13% and 11% of consolidated net sales respectively. A single glass producer supplies most of the company's glass bottle requirements.