Amcor shows 77% revenue growth year-over-year and recovering price momentum, but free cash flow is converting at only 22% of net income, business quality sits at the minimum-threshold floor, a put/call ratio of 3.17 signals elevated institutional hedging demand, and dual concentration in flexible packaging and developed markets limits diversification — the position warrants an exit until quality and cash conversion improve.
Thesis pillars
- Poor Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Product Geographic Concentration→Stable
- Elevated Options Hedging Demand→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.80: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid (28%)—with 77,000 employees at 423 facilities in approximately 70 countries following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global Group.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.80: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Amcor plc
Latest news
- NEWS Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Give Their Take On 3 Materials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Amcor Collaborates With Kelpi To Explore Next-Gen Coating Technologies To Enhance Performance And Sustainability Of Pack — benzinga Jun 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Amcor, Lowers Price Target to $41 — benzinga May 20, 2026 negative
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Amcor, Lowers Price Target to $44 — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Truist Securities Reiterates Buy on Amcor, Raises Price Target to $51 — benzinga May 7, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductGlobal Flexible Packaging Solutions segment72%10-K Item 1: 'the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment accounted for approximately 72% of consolidated net sales'
- HIGHGeographicdeveloped markets75%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our sales revenue came from developed markets and 25% came from emerging markets'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.80: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82. Prior stop was $42.66. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $44.13 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $42.66. Stop-loss: $42.66.
Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%); Target reached (-6.8% upside).
Amcor plc trades at a P/E of 36.0 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.
What does Amcor plc do?Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net...
Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid (28%)—with 77,000 employees at 423 facilities in approximately 70 countries following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global Group. Revenue comes from selling packaging to consumer goods companies with no single customer exceeding 10% of net sales.