Amcor shows 77% revenue growth year-over-year and recovering price momentum, but free cash flow is converting at only 22% of net income, business quality sits at the minimum-threshold floor, a put/call ratio of 3.17 signals elevated institutional hedging demand, and dual concentration in flexible packaging and developed markets limits diversification — the position warrants an exit until quality and cash conversion improve.
Thesis pillars
- Poor Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Product Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Elevated Options Hedging Demand↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. At $44.77, A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%).
Amcor plc develops and manufactures consumer packaging and dispensing solutions — flexible packaging, rigid packaging, cartons, and closures — for nutrition, health, beauty, and wellness categories worldwide, operating through two segments following its April 2025 merger with... Read more
Sell if holding. At $44.77, A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Amcor plc
About Amcor plc
Amcor generated 72% of fiscal 2025 net sales from its Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment and 28% from Global Rigid Packaging Solutions, operating 423 manufacturing and support facilities across more than 36 countries following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global. Developed markets accounted for 75% of fiscal 2025 sales revenue and emerging markets 25%, and the combined company employed approximately 77,000 people worldwide, with 37% of the workforce covered by collective bargaining agreements.
Amcor sells flexible and rigid packaging, specialty cartons, and dispensing closures predominantly through a direct sales force to thousands of customers across packaged food, beverage, healthcare, personal care, agribusiness, and industrial end markets in Europe, North America, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. No single customer exceeded 10% of net sales in the last three fiscal years, though the 10-K notes customer concentration can be more pronounced within certain businesses, and recent customer-side consolidation has increased pricing pressure in some accounts. Raw materials — polymer resins and films, paper, linerboard, aluminum, and chemicals — are purchased from a variety of global sources, and price increases are generally passed through to customers via contractual mechanisms over time. Amcor competes against 3M, AptarGroup, Ball, Crown Holdings, Graphic Packaging, International Paper, O-I Glass, Sealed Air, Silgan, and Sonoco, among others.
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Amcor's labor exposure is unusually quantified for a packaging company: 37% of its roughly 77,000-person global workforce is covered by collective bargaining agreements, and as of June 30, 2025 about 4% of employees were working under already-expired contracts while another 16% were covered under agreements expiring within a year. That means roughly one-fifth of Amcor's unionized workforce enters contract renegotiation within the next twelve months, concentrated in a company still mid-integration following its $14.1 billion-debt-funded merger with Berry Global — a moment when labor-cost renegotiation and integration-driven restructuring could collide if either process runs into friction.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
From Amcor plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Amcor plc
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at Amcor PLC (AMCR) After 3.5% Gain -- GF Value $49.42 vs Price $47.45 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Amcor PLC stock rises Wednesday, outperforms market - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS Amcor stock extends 2026 rally as dividend and earnings upgrade support packaging giant - Ad-hoc-news.de — Ad-hoc-news.de positive
- NEWS Amcor (AMCR) Daily Price Brief: Posts a 0.72% Gain to $45.86 in the Latest Reading; Support and Resistance - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS Truist reiterates Amcor stock Buy rating, keeps $51 price target By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa positive
Generated 2026-09-04T13:27:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductGlobal Flexible Packaging Solutions segment72%10-K Item 1: 'the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment accounted for approximately 72% of consolidated net sales.'
- HIGHGeographicdeveloped markets75%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our sales revenue came from developed markets and 25% came from emerging markets'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $44.77, A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $43.12. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $47.28 (-4.0% upside). Prior stop was $43.12. Stop-loss: $43.12.
Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Amcor plc trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $50.
What does Amcor plc do?Amcor plc develops and manufactures consumer packaging and dispensing solutions — flexible packaging, rigid packaging,...
Amcor plc develops and manufactures consumer packaging and dispensing solutions — flexible packaging, rigid packaging, cartons, and closures — for nutrition, health, beauty, and wellness categories worldwide, operating through two segments following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions (28%). The company employs approximately 77,000 people globally, with roughly 75% of fiscal 2025 sales revenue coming from developed markets and 25% from emerging markets.