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Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $154.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Avery Dennison is a global materials science and digital identification company with Materials Group (pressure-sensitive label materials, graphics, tapes, ~69% of net sales) and Solutions Group (RFID, branding, Vestcom shelf-edge, ~31% of net sales) segments. In 2025,... Read more

$154.26+13.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#12 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.86%
IncomeYield2.59%(5y avg 1.66%)Payout42.34%sustainable
Stop $149.46Target $174.26(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$200.30+29.8%10 analysts
$174.26our TP
$154.26price
$200.30mean
$221

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $154.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Avery Dennison Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.4
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$11.8B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn7.7%
ROE30.9%
Rev Growth7.0%
Beta0.85
Dividend2.59%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$135-12.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.3
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.9
Revenue Growth
4.2
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $154.08Resistance $173.07

Price Targets

$149
$174
A.Upside+13.0%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $154.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $149.46. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the AVY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $174.26 (+13.0% upside). Prior stop was $149.46. Stop-loss: $149.46.

What are the risks of investing in AVY?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Weak growth.

Is AVY overvalued or undervalued?

Avery Dennison Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVY?

17 analysts cover AVY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $200.

What does Avery Dennison Corporation do?Avery Dennison is a global materials science and digital identification company with Materials Group...

Avery Dennison is a global materials science and digital identification company with Materials Group (pressure-sensitive label materials, graphics, tapes, ~69% of net sales) and Solutions Group (RFID, branding, Vestcom shelf-edge, ~31% of net sales) segments. In 2025, approximately 69% of net sales originated outside the U.S. from 200+ facilities in 50+ countries, with approximately 40% from emerging markets. No single customer represented 10% or more of net sales.

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