Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
AMCR · Why this verdict
Why Amcor (AMCR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amcor shows strong reported growth (26% YoY) and rising-volume momentum with excellent cash conversion, but the stock already trades about 8.1% above the analyst target and quality is held back by the lack of a competitive moat.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash conversion is excellent at 136% FCF to net income, but the business has no competitive moat and an overall quality score of only 4.1/10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should keep covering net income while quality scores stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no moat in commodity-like packaging, margins can be competed away and the cash conversion may not persist. | ||
Amcor is an industry growth leader, with reported revenue growth of 26% YoY and a peer growth rank of about 9.4/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay clearly positive and above peer levels over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, so the 26% figure may reflect acquisition or one-off effects rather than durable organic growth. | ||
Price momentum is strong, with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day moving average, giving a momentum score of 7.8/10. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the 200-day average while volume accumulation persists. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI near 90 is deeply overbought, so a sharp mean-reversion pullback is a plausible near-term outcome. | ||
The price of $47.39 is already above the $43.56 analyst target (upside of -8.1%), so little upside remains and the downside estimate is 13.9%. Upside pct | Either the analyst target is revised upward or the price consolidates; reward-to-risk should improve from the current -0.58. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price in strong tape, and upward revisions could quickly validate the higher price. | ||
Concentration risk is flagged: the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment makes up 55.0% of the business. Bear case | Segment mix should stay balanced and that segment's results should not drive a large share of earnings volatility. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single dominant segment means one end-market slowdown can hit consolidated results disproportionately. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 136% FCF to net income, but the business has no competitive moat and an overall quality score of only 4.1/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should keep covering net income while quality scores stabilize.
CounterWith no moat in commodity-like packaging, margins can be competed away and the cash conversion may not persist.
Amcor is an industry growth leader, with reported revenue growth of 26% YoY and a peer growth rank of about 9.4/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay clearly positive and above peer levels over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, so the 26% figure may reflect acquisition or one-off effects rather than durable organic growth.
Price momentum is strong, with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day moving average, giving a momentum score of 7.8/10.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day average while volume accumulation persists.
CounterRSI near 90 is deeply overbought, so a sharp mean-reversion pullback is a plausible near-term outcome.
The price of $47.39 is already above the $43.56 analyst target (upside of -8.1%), so little upside remains and the downside estimate is 13.9%.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Either the analyst target is revised upward or the price consolidates; reward-to-risk should improve from the current -0.58.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price in strong tape, and upward revisions could quickly validate the higher price.
Concentration risk is flagged: the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment makes up 55.0% of the business.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Segment mix should stay balanced and that segment's results should not drive a large share of earnings volatility.
CounterA single dominant segment means one end-market slowdown can hit consolidated results disproportionately.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $35
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.55
Upside
-7.2%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE, 8K_CRITICAL:4.01, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.55 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.0, Momentum at 8.1, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Quality at 4.1, Technical at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Rising Volume Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 7.8.
- P3Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifAnalyst target stays below the current price by more than 15% (price above $50.10 versus the $43.56 target) while reward-to-risk stays below 0.
- P4Cash Conversion Without Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 136%.
- P5Segment Concentration Risk
Trip ifGlobal Flexible Packaging Solutions share of revenue exceeds 60% from the current 55%.