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RSKDRiskified Ltd.Sell5.6·$6.45+2.06%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Riskified shows a bullish golden-cross breakout, but below-floor business quality, extreme insider selling, and elevated put/call hedging argue for caution over the technical setup.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum FloorDeteriorating
  • Heavy Insider SellingImproving
  • Golden Cross Technical SetupStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.45: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Riskified Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and offers an e-commerce risk intelligent platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. It... Read more

$6.45-23.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#89 of 124 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.12%
Stop $6.00Target $7.42(default +15%)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$5.65-12.4%5 analysts
$7.42our TP
$6.45price
$5.65mean
$5
$7

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.45: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.80, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-14

Recent Developments — Riskified Ltd.

Generated 2026-08-14T11:47:20Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Earnings detected in news
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-23.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$846M
EV/EBITDA-22.2
Profit Mgn-5.2%
ROE-5.7%
Rev Growth7.1%
Beta1.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV169%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Unprofitable operations — net margin -5.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
6.0
Gross Margin
6.5
Moat
6.6
Current Ratio
7.5
Piotroski F
8.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 12%, FCF yield 5.1%)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEINSIDER 2.68%=EXTREMEMomentum 8.4>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.80NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
84 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.93Resistance $6.48

Price Targets

$6
$7
A.Upside-23.8%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-23.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RSKD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.45: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.00. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RSKD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.42 (-23.8% upside). Prior stop was $6.00. Stop-loss: $6.00.

What are the risks of investing in RSKD?

Target reached (-23.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is RSKD overvalued or undervalued?

Riskified Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RSKD?

12 analysts cover RSKD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Riskified Ltd. do?Riskified Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and offers an e-commerce risk intelligent platform that allows...

Riskified Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and offers an e-commerce risk intelligent platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. It offers Chargeback Guarantee that ensures the legitimacy of merchants' online orders; Dispute Resolve, which is used to compile submissions for fraud and non-fraud related chargeback issues; Policy Protect, a machine learning solution designed to detect and prevent refund and returns policy abuse in real-time; Account Secure, a solution that cross-checks every login attempt; and PSD2 optimization that helps total conversion and reduce cart abandonment. It serves direct-to-consumer brands, online-only retailers, omnichannel retailers, online marketplaces, and e-commerce service providers in various industries, such as payments, money transfer, tickets and travel, electronics, home, and fashion and luxury goods. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.

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