Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
VTEX · Why this verdict
Why VTEX (VTEX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
VTEX is a high-quality software company with a perfect 4-quarter EPS beat streak, excellent cash conversion and 21.1% upside to the analyst target, though momentum is negative and earnings arrive in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue of $64.4M for the period ended 2026-06-30 is up from $58.8M a year earlier, about 9.5% growth. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue exceeds the $63.1M next-quarter estimate and keeps growing at least 8% YoY. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue figures are provisional from a secondary source, and growth is modest for a software company with a technology-sector discount. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 136% of net income, with a wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 of 9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSoftware free cash flow can be flattered by deferred revenue and stock compensation, so conversion may not persist. | ||
EPS beat estimates in all 4 of the last quarters with an average surprise of 80.8%, including $0.08 against $0.04 in the latest quarter. Last 4 quarters | EPS continues to beat estimates over the next 4 quarters, including the report due in 4 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe beats are on very small per-share numbers, so a one-cent change creates large percentage surprises that say little about growth. | ||
The $4.82 analyst target implies 21.1% upside from $3.98, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.05 against 10.3% downside. Analyst target | The price moves toward the analyst target as earnings beats continue. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target carries less weight, and the stock is a small cap with limited institutional demand. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.4/10 with falling on-balance volume, even though the price is above its 200-day average, and earnings are due in 4 days. Momentum breakdown | The momentum score recovers above 4.5 after the earnings report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling volume ahead of a binary event often reverses sharply on a beat, so weak momentum may be a poor guide. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $64.4M for the period ended 2026-06-30 is up from $58.8M a year earlier, about 9.5% growth.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue exceeds the $63.1M next-quarter estimate and keeps growing at least 8% YoY.
CounterRevenue figures are provisional from a secondary source, and growth is modest for a software company with a technology-sector discount.
Cash conversion is excellent at 136% of net income, with a wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterSoftware free cash flow can be flattered by deferred revenue and stock compensation, so conversion may not persist.
EPS beat estimates in all 4 of the last quarters with an average surprise of 80.8%, including $0.08 against $0.04 in the latest quarter.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat estimates over the next 4 quarters, including the report due in 4 days.
CounterThe beats are on very small per-share numbers, so a one-cent change creates large percentage surprises that say little about growth.
The $4.82 analyst target implies 21.1% upside from $3.98, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.05 against 10.3% downside.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- The price moves toward the analyst target as earnings beats continue.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target carries less weight, and the stock is a small cap with limited institutional demand.
Momentum is weak at 3.4/10 with falling on-balance volume, even though the price is above its 200-day average, and earnings are due in 4 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The momentum score recovers above 4.5 after the earnings report.
CounterFalling volume ahead of a binary event often reverses sharply on a beat, so weak momentum may be a poor guide.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 7.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 4.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 93%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.05
Upside
+21.1%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Growth at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8, and Peer rank at 6.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 80% from the current 136%.
- P3Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $4.00 from the current $4.82.
- P5Weak Near Term Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive months.