Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
VTEX · Why this verdict
Why VTEX (VTEX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
VTEX combines a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with an asymmetry-gate-passing valuation and strong cash conversion, but moderate insider selling, rising leverage, and thin analyst coverage temper conviction in the 26% modeled upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
VTEX clears the engine's asymmetry gate at a 1.75 ratio, with an analyst-target upside of 26.3% against a 7% stop-loss downside, backed by a perfect 4-of-4 quarterly earnings beat streak. Reward-to-risk math | Price should move toward the analyst-target take-profit of $5.23 (from $4.14) within 12 months as the beat streak potentially continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death-cross recovery warning (momentum barely at 6.0, just above the 5.0 recovery threshold) means the technical structure remains fragile despite the fundamental asymmetry math. | ||
VTEX screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 14.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.04, per the engine's value notes. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated (above 6) as the discount persists or the stock re-rates upward over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA very low PEG ratio on a small-cap software name can reflect analyst estimates that are stale or based on a thin, unreliable growth forecast rather than a genuine value opportunity. | ||
VTEX shows excellent cash conversion at 170% FCF/NI and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating fundamentally sound execution. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI conversion should stay above 100% and the Piotroski score should hold at 7 or better over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe leverage penalty (D/E of 1.1, -0.5 score impact) noted in the bear case shows rising balance-sheet leverage that could eventually pressure the otherwise strong cash-conversion profile. | ||
Insiders sold $1,279,614 (0.181% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 21 transactions with zero buys, and the top-level insider signal reads BEARISH at MODERATE severity. Insider transaction read | Insider activity should shift toward net buying or at least de-escalate from MODERATE severity over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| Counter21 separate sell transactions with no single large block suggests routine, programmatic selling (e.g., scheduled compensation-related sales) rather than a coordinated negative signal. | ||
Analyst upside is estimated between 26% (engine target) and 45% (raw analyst figure), but the engine flags light analyst coverage, dampening confidence in this bullish sentiment signal. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst coverage should expand and price targets should hold or rise as more analysts initiate coverage over the next 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterWith thin analyst coverage, a single analyst dropping or downgrading coverage could swing the modeled upside figure dramatically, making it an unstable basis for a thesis. | ||
VTEX clears the engine's asymmetry gate at a 1.75 ratio, with an analyst-target upside of 26.3% against a 7% stop-loss downside, backed by a perfect 4-of-4 quarterly earnings beat streak.
↑ImprovingReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst-target take-profit of $5.23 (from $4.14) within 12 months as the beat streak potentially continues.
CounterA death-cross recovery warning (momentum barely at 6.0, just above the 5.0 recovery threshold) means the technical structure remains fragile despite the fundamental asymmetry math.
VTEX screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 14.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.04, per the engine's value notes.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated (above 6) as the discount persists or the stock re-rates upward over the next 12 months.
CounterA very low PEG ratio on a small-cap software name can reflect analyst estimates that are stale or based on a thin, unreliable growth forecast rather than a genuine value opportunity.
VTEX shows excellent cash conversion at 170% FCF/NI and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating fundamentally sound execution.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI conversion should stay above 100% and the Piotroski score should hold at 7 or better over the next 12 months.
CounterThe leverage penalty (D/E of 1.1, -0.5 score impact) noted in the bear case shows rising balance-sheet leverage that could eventually pressure the otherwise strong cash-conversion profile.
Insiders sold $1,279,614 (0.181% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 21 transactions with zero buys, and the top-level insider signal reads BEARISH at MODERATE severity.
↓DeterioratingInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider activity should shift toward net buying or at least de-escalate from MODERATE severity over the next 12 months.
Counter21 separate sell transactions with no single large block suggests routine, programmatic selling (e.g., scheduled compensation-related sales) rather than a coordinated negative signal.
Analyst upside is estimated between 26% (engine target) and 45% (raw analyst figure), but the engine flags light analyst coverage, dampening confidence in this bullish sentiment signal.
Tripped↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst coverage should expand and price targets should hold or rise as more analysts initiate coverage over the next 12 months.
CounterWith thin analyst coverage, a single analyst dropping or downgrading coverage could swing the modeled upside figure dramatically, making it an unstable basis for a thesis.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 7.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,072,545 (0.151% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 1.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.15%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
2.52
Upside
+28.2%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 7.6; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Growth at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Insider at 5.0, and Technical at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Asymmetry Clears Engine Gate
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 1.75, or price fails to close above $4.50 within 12 months.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from the current 14.9x without a corresponding earnings improvement.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion And Piotroski Score
Trip ifFCF/NI conversion falls below 100% from the current 170%, or Piotroski F-Score drops below 6.
- P4Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider selling severity escalates to levels exceeding 0.5% of market cap, up from the current 0.181%.
- P5Wide Analyst Upside With Dampened SignalTripped
Trip ifAverage analyst price target falls more than 20% from its current level, cutting modeled upside below 15%.