Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
VTEX · Why this verdict
Why VTEX (VTEX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
VTEX combines a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with an asymmetry-gate-passing valuation and strong cash conversion, but moderate insider selling, rising leverage, and thin analyst coverage temper conviction in the 26% modeled upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
VTEX clears the engine's asymmetry gate at a 1.75 ratio, with an analyst-target upside of 26.3% against a 7% stop-loss downside, backed by a perfect 4-of-4 quarterly earnings beat streak. Reward-to-risk math | Price should move toward the analyst-target take-profit of $5.23 (from $4.14) within 12 months as the beat streak potentially continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA death-cross recovery warning (momentum barely at 6.0, just above the 5.0 recovery threshold) means the technical structure remains fragile despite the fundamental asymmetry math. | ||
VTEX screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 14.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.04, per the engine's value notes. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated (above 6) as the discount persists or the stock re-rates upward over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA very low PEG ratio on a small-cap software name can reflect analyst estimates that are stale or based on a thin, unreliable growth forecast rather than a genuine value opportunity. | ||
VTEX shows excellent cash conversion at 170% FCF/NI and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating fundamentally sound execution. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI conversion should stay above 100% and the Piotroski score should hold at 7 or better over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe leverage penalty (D/E of 1.1, -0.5 score impact) noted in the bear case shows rising balance-sheet leverage that could eventually pressure the otherwise strong cash-conversion profile. | ||
Insiders sold $1,279,614 (0.181% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 21 transactions with zero buys, and the top-level insider signal reads BEARISH at MODERATE severity. Insider transaction read | Insider activity should shift toward net buying or at least de-escalate from MODERATE severity over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| Counter21 separate sell transactions with no single large block suggests routine, programmatic selling (e.g., scheduled compensation-related sales) rather than a coordinated negative signal. | ||
Analyst upside is estimated between 26% (engine target) and 45% (raw analyst figure), but the engine flags light analyst coverage, dampening confidence in this bullish sentiment signal. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst coverage should expand and price targets should hold or rise as more analysts initiate coverage over the next 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterWith thin analyst coverage, a single analyst dropping or downgrading coverage could swing the modeled upside figure dramatically, making it an unstable basis for a thesis. | ||
VTEX clears the engine's asymmetry gate at a 1.75 ratio, with an analyst-target upside of 26.3% against a 7% stop-loss downside, backed by a perfect 4-of-4 quarterly earnings beat streak.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst-target take-profit of $5.23 (from $4.14) within 12 months as the beat streak potentially continues.
CounterA death-cross recovery warning (momentum barely at 6.0, just above the 5.0 recovery threshold) means the technical structure remains fragile despite the fundamental asymmetry math.
VTEX screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 14.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.04, per the engine's value notes.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated (above 6) as the discount persists or the stock re-rates upward over the next 12 months.
CounterA very low PEG ratio on a small-cap software name can reflect analyst estimates that are stale or based on a thin, unreliable growth forecast rather than a genuine value opportunity.
VTEX shows excellent cash conversion at 170% FCF/NI and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating fundamentally sound execution.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI conversion should stay above 100% and the Piotroski score should hold at 7 or better over the next 12 months.
CounterThe leverage penalty (D/E of 1.1, -0.5 score impact) noted in the bear case shows rising balance-sheet leverage that could eventually pressure the otherwise strong cash-conversion profile.
Insiders sold $1,279,614 (0.181% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 21 transactions with zero buys, and the top-level insider signal reads BEARISH at MODERATE severity.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider activity should shift toward net buying or at least de-escalate from MODERATE severity over the next 12 months.
Counter21 separate sell transactions with no single large block suggests routine, programmatic selling (e.g., scheduled compensation-related sales) rather than a coordinated negative signal.
Analyst upside is estimated between 26% (engine target) and 45% (raw analyst figure), but the engine flags light analyst coverage, dampening confidence in this bullish sentiment signal.
Tripped↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst coverage should expand and price targets should hold or rise as more analysts initiate coverage over the next 12 months.
CounterWith thin analyst coverage, a single analyst dropping or downgrading coverage could swing the modeled upside figure dramatically, making it an unstable basis for a thesis.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 7.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 88)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 88 (late-cycle distribution risk)
- ▸Volume surge (3.2x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 3.5 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.06
Upside
+15.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.1, Growth at 7.5, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Peer rank at 6.0, and Sentiment at 6.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Asymmetry Clears Engine Gate
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 1.75, or price fails to close above $4.50 within 12 months.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from the current 14.9x without a corresponding earnings improvement.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion And Piotroski Score
Trip ifFCF/NI conversion falls below 100% from the current 170%, or Piotroski F-Score drops below 6.
- P4Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider selling severity escalates to levels exceeding 0.5% of market cap, up from the current 0.181%.
- P5Wide Analyst Upside With Dampened SignalTripped
Trip ifAverage analyst price target falls more than 20% from its current level, cutting modeled upside below 15%.