Red Rock Resorts is a momentum-driven Las Vegas regional casino operator with exceptional returns on equity above 100% and a strong earnings beat history, but geographic concentration in a single market and a price that has run to the analyst target leaves the risk/reward unfavorable for new buyers.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Return On Equity→Stable
- Earnings Beat And Momentum Pattern↓Deteriorating
- Las Vegas Market Concentration↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026· older than 90 days
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $48.66: Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market; Concentration risk — Product: slot play (80.0%).
Red Rock Resorts owns and operates seven major gaming and entertainment facilities plus 13 smaller casinos across the Las Vegas valley through its subsidiary Station Casinos LLC, with over 90% of Las Vegas residents within five miles of a company property. Revenue is driven... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $48.66: Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market; Concentration risk — Product: slot play (80.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Red Rock Resorts, Inc.
About Red Rock Resorts, Inc.
Red Rock Resorts' Station Casinos LLC operates seven major gaming and entertainment facilities and 13 smaller casinos across the Las Vegas valley, totaling 2,734 hotel rooms, 16,553 slot machines, and 328 gaming tables on approximately 367 acres at December 31, 2025. Over 90% of Las Vegas residents live within five miles of one of the company's gaming facilities. The company also controls six gaming-entitled development sites covering approximately 454 acres in Las Vegas, each zoned for casino gaming.
Gaming drives revenue, with approximately 80% of casino revenue generated from slot play and the majority of overall revenue being cash-based. The company operates the my|Rewards Boarding Pass loyalty program to attract and retain guests, primarily Las Vegas residents and regional visitors. Properties range from major AAA Four Diamond resorts — Red Rock (opened 2006), Green Valley Ranch (opened 2001), and Durango Casino & Resort (opened December 2023) — to smaller Wildfire-branded neighborhood casinos. Non-gaming amenities, including multi-restaurant complexes, hotel towers, movie theaters, bowling centers, and convention space totaling over 100,000 square feet at key properties, create repeat-visit reasons beyond slot play. The company also receives management and development fees from the North Fork Project, a gaming facility being developed with the North Fork Rancheria of Mono Indians in Madera County, California, expected to open in Q4 2026 and carrying a management fee of 30% of net income.
Show full overview
Geographic concentration in a single metropolitan area remains Red Rock Resorts' primary structural exposure. The company's 10-K explicitly identifies dependence on Las Vegas residents as the core operating thesis, with results directly correlated to local unemployment (5.2% in December 2025), housing prices ($470,000 median for an existing single-family home at December 31, 2025), and population growth. Simultaneously, active National Labor Relations Board litigation contests election results at Red Rock and the withdrawal of union recognition at Boulder Station, Palace Station, and Sunset Station — if those disputes resolve against the company, labor costs at several properties could increase simultaneously, compounding the geographic concentration risk.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
From Red Rock Resorts, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Red Rock Resorts, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Red Rock Resorts, Lowers Price Target to $64 — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Red Rock Resorts stock hits 52-week low at 47.42 USD - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Red Rock Resorts stock hits 52-week low at 47.42 USD By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Red Rock Resorts stock hits 52-week low at 47.42 USD - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Learn Why The Bull Case For Red Rock Resorts Stock Could Change Following Earnings Beat - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicLas Vegas regional market10-K Item 1A: 'All of our casino properties are dependent upon attracting Las Vegas residents ... our concentration in the Las Vegas regional market'
- HIGHProductslot play80%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 80% of our casino revenue is generated from slot play'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $48.66: Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market; Concentration risk — Product: slot play (80.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Prior stop was $46.00. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $64.80 (+33.2% upside). Prior stop was $46.00. Stop-loss: $46.00.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market; Concentration risk — Product: slot play (80.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.6 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts rate RRR, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 18 analysts publish price targets averaging $72.
What does Red Rock Resorts, Inc. do?Red Rock Resorts owns and operates seven major gaming and entertainment facilities plus 13 smaller casinos across the...
Red Rock Resorts owns and operates seven major gaming and entertainment facilities plus 13 smaller casinos across the Las Vegas valley through its subsidiary Station Casinos LLC, with over 90% of Las Vegas residents within five miles of a company property. Revenue is driven primarily by gaming—approximately 80% of casino revenue comes from slot play—supplemented by hotels, restaurants, and entertainment amenities.