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Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market.

Red Rock Resorts operates seven major gaming facilities (including Durango Casino & Resort) and 13 smaller casinos throughout the Las Vegas valley, catering primarily to local Las Vegas residents. Gaming is the principal revenue source, with approximately 80% of casino revenue... Read more

$52.56+21.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
Stop $50.64Target $64.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$71.88+36.7%16 analysts
$64.69our TP
$52.56price
$71.88mean
$80

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market
Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)17.1
Mkt Cap$5.7B
EV/EBITDA8.3
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE111.3%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta1.48
Dividend1.85%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicLas Vegas regional market
    10-K Item 1A: 'As a result of our concentration in the Las Vegas regional market, we have greater exposure to a number of risks than we would have if we had operations outside of the Las Vegas valley.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.0
Revenue Growth
3.3

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
2.5
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $52.21Resistance $59.08

Price Targets

$51
$65
A.Upside+23.1%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RRR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.56 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $50.64. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the RRR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.69 (+21.3% upside). Prior stop was $50.64. Stop-loss: $50.64.

What are the risks of investing in RRR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Las Vegas regional market; Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is RRR overvalued or undervalued?

Red Rock Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 17.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RRR?

19 analysts cover RRR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $72.

What does Red Rock Resorts, Inc. do?Red Rock Resorts operates seven major gaming facilities (including Durango Casino & Resort) and 13 smaller casinos...

Red Rock Resorts operates seven major gaming facilities (including Durango Casino & Resort) and 13 smaller casinos throughout the Las Vegas valley, catering primarily to local Las Vegas residents. Gaming is the principal revenue source, with approximately 80% of casino revenue from slot play, supplemented by restaurants, hotels, and entertainment.

Related stocks: MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · PENN (PENN Entertainment, Inc.) · MGM (MGM Resorts International) · CZR (Caesars Entertainment, Inc.)