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Caseys General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $857.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in smaller Midwest and Southern communities under the Casey's, CEFCO, GoodStop, and other brands. Retail fuel sales represented 61.3% of total 2025 revenue,... Read more

$857.15+2.4% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#16 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.48%
IncomeYield0.27%(5y avg 0.56%)Payout12.69%sustainable
Stop $818.51Target $882.98(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$794.44-7.3%16 analysts
$882.98our TP
$857.15price
$794.44mean
$605
$1000

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $857.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Caseys General Stores, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.3% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.0
P/E (Fwd)42.4
Mkt Cap$31.6B
EV/EBITDA24.4
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE17.9%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.65
Dividend0.27%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
2.8
Quality Rank
2.8

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.5
Forward Pe
2.7
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
4.5
Ps
9.1
Forward P/E: 42.4xPEG: 2.05
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $764.47Resistance $901.00

Price Targets

$819
$883
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-08 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CASY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $857.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $818.51. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the CASY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $882.98 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $818.51. Stop-loss: $818.51.

What are the risks of investing in CASY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

Is CASY overvalued or undervalued?

Caseys General Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.0 (forward 42.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CASY?

25 analysts cover CASY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $794.

What does Caseys General Stores, Inc. do?Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in...

Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in smaller Midwest and Southern communities under the Casey's, CEFCO, GoodStop, and other brands. Retail fuel sales represented 61.3% of total 2025 revenue, complemented by high-margin prepared food (including pizza), tobacco, and general merchandise. Approximately half of stores are in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois.

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