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Caseys General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $812.08 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-0.7% away).

Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores in 20 states, with a majority in the Midwest and a significant expansion into Texas after the 2024 Fikes acquisition. Revenue is primarily from fuel retail and in-store products including prepared food, tobacco, and... Read more

$812.08-1.7% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#12 of 18 Specialty Retail
Stop $777.40Target $797.96(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$753.00-7.3%16 analysts
$797.96our TP
$812.08price
$753.00mean
$605
$860

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $812.08 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-0.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-0.7% away)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.9
P/E (Fwd)39.2
Mkt Cap$29.0B
EV/EBITDA22.5
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE17.9%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.60
Dividend0.29%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.08bearish
IV34%normal
Max Pain$310-61.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWProducttobacco and nicotine products9.0%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales of tobacco and nicotine products have averaged approximately 9% of our total revenue over the past three fiscal years'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
3.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
9.9

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.8
Forward Pe
2.8
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
4.5
Ps
9.2
Forward P/E: 39.2xPEG: 2.05
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $727.32Resistance $814.24

Price Targets

$777
$798
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-08 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CASY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $812.08 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-0.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $777.40. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CASY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $797.96 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $777.40. Stop-loss: $777.40.

What are the risks of investing in CASY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-0.7% away); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is CASY overvalued or undervalued?

Caseys General Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 44.9 (forward 39.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CASY?

25 analysts cover CASY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $753.

What does Caseys General Stores, Inc. do?Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores in 20 states, with a majority in the Midwest and a significant...

Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores in 20 states, with a majority in the Midwest and a significant expansion into Texas after the 2024 Fikes acquisition. Revenue is primarily from fuel retail and in-store products including prepared food, tobacco, and beverages.

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