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CASYCaseys General Stores, Inc.Buy Wait5.1·$751.20-1.41%
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Caseys General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Earnings in 1 day (2026-06-09). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $679.60. At $751.20 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $679.60 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in smaller Midwest and Southern communities under the Casey's, CEFCO, GoodStop, and other brands. Retail fuel sales represented 61.3% of total 2025 revenue,... Read more

$751.20+11.9% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#16 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.66%
IncomeYield0.30%(5y avg 0.55%)Payout12.69%sustainable
Entry $679.60(Rr Min Solve Sticky)Stop $626.08Target $758.53(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$842.81+12.2%16 analysts
$758.53our TP
$751.20price
$842.81mean
$605
$1000

Wait for pullback to $679.60. At $751.20 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $679.60 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jun 9, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.7
P/E (Fwd)37.4
Mkt Cap$28.2B
EV/EBITDA22.0
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE17.9%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.62
Dividend0.30%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.24bearish
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
1.4
Quality Rank
2.5
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $739.18Resistance $901.00

Price Targets

$626
$680
$759
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.9% upside)
! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-09 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CASY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $679.60. At $751.20 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $679.60 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $758.53 (+1.0%), stop $626.08 (−20.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the CASY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $758.53 (+11.9% upside). Target $758.53 (+1.0%), stop $626.08 (−20.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $626.08.

What are the risks of investing in CASY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is CASY overvalued or undervalued?

Caseys General Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.7 (forward 37.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CASY?

26 analysts cover CASY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $843.

What does Caseys General Stores, Inc. do?Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in...

Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in smaller Midwest and Southern communities under the Casey's, CEFCO, GoodStop, and other brands. Retail fuel sales represented 61.3% of total 2025 revenue, complemented by high-margin prepared food (including pizza), tobacco, and general merchandise. Approximately half of stores are in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois.

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