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Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $311.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Tyler Technologies provides integrated software and SaaS solutions exclusively to U.S. public sector agencies (local, state, federal governments, courts, K-12 schools), covering ERP, property/tax, public safety, payments, and digital citizen services. Recurring revenues... Read more

$311.80+28.5% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#94 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.22%
Stop $290.06Target $400.63(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$445.14+42.8%21 analysts
$400.63our TP
$311.80price
$445.14mean
$650

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $311.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Tyler Technologies, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Analyst upside: 28%
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.1
P/E (Fwd)21.7
Mkt Cap$12.8B
EV/EBITDA28.6
Profit Mgn13.3%
ROE8.9%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta0.86
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.4
Revenue Growth
4.6
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $294.36Resistance $366.63

Price Targets

$290
$401
A.Upside+28.5%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TYL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $311.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $290.06. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the TYL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $400.63 (+28.5% upside). Prior stop was $290.06. Stop-loss: $290.06.

What are the risks of investing in TYL?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is TYL overvalued or undervalued?

Tyler Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.1 (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TYL?

27 analysts cover TYL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $445.

What does Tyler Technologies, Inc. do?Tyler Technologies provides integrated software and SaaS solutions exclusively to U.S. public sector agencies (local,...

Tyler Technologies provides integrated software and SaaS solutions exclusively to U.S. public sector agencies (local, state, federal governments, courts, K-12 schools), covering ERP, property/tax, public safety, payments, and digital citizen services. Recurring revenues (subscriptions + maintenance) were $2.0B or 87% of total 2025 revenues; ARR reached $2.06B as clients shift toward cloud deployment.

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