Tyler Technologies serves public sector clients with a software platform that generates 172% free cash flow conversion and has beaten earnings in 3 of 4 recent quarters, but a confirmed death cross, falling on-balance volume, and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.65 signal that price needs time and a catalyst before the 38% analyst upside becomes accessible.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Analyst Upside 38 Pct↓Deteriorating
- Public Sector Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $404.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: public sector clients.
Tyler Technologies sells integrated software and technology management solutions exclusively to public sector clients — cities, counties, states, and federal agencies across all 50 states. Recurring revenues of $2.0 billion represented 87% of total 2025 revenues, with client... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $404.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: public sector clients. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Tyler Technologies, Inc.
About Tyler Technologies, Inc.
Tyler Technologies generated $2.0 billion in recurring revenue in 2025, representing 87% of total revenues, while annualized recurring revenue (ARR) reached $2.06 billion at December 31, 2025 — an approximately 11% increase year-over-year. Subscription-based revenues alone climbed from $784.4 million in 2021 to $1.6 billion in 2025, driven by a sustained shift toward SaaS delivery. The company serves public sector clients across all 50 states, including dedicated enterprise contracts in 30 states, and employed approximately 7,800 team members at December 31, 2025.
Tyler's revenues flow from three streams: subscription-based services (SaaS arrangements and transaction-based fees from the payments platform, which processes nearly half a billion transactions annually, plus digital government and e-filing services), maintenance and support for on-premises clients billed as a percentage of license fees and renewed annually, and professional services for implementation, training, and data conversion billed hourly or on a fixed-fee basis. Software licenses and hardware represented only 2.5% and 3.2% of total revenues in 2025 and 2024, respectively, confirming the recurring-revenue pivot is structurally advanced. SaaS contracts typically span one to three years and include fee escalators on renewal; on-premises clients historically renew at roughly 98% annually. AWS provides the primary cloud infrastructure under a strategic collaboration agreement; Tyler acknowledges that switching providers would require significant cost and potential service interruption, making the relationship a material operational dependency. Named competitors include Oracle Corporation, SAP AG, Infor, Workday, Motorola Solutions, Axon Enterprise, and Constellation Software.
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Tyler's public sector client base creates structural budget dependency: revenues derived substantially from government entities are subject to termination clauses tied to lack of future appropriations, open bidding requirements, and political factors including changes in governmental administrations. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement providing a $1 billion unsecured revolving facility with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, maturing May 28, 2031 — expanding capacity above the prior $700 million line and extending tenor ahead of the 2029 scheduled maturity. The expanded facility provides financial flexibility for acquisitions and ongoing migration of legacy on-premises clients to cloud SaaS arrangements.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Tyler Technologies, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Tyler Technologies falls on revenue miss, soft guidance - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Is Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) a Bargain After 4.7% Drop? GF Va - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Tyler Technologies slides on likely revenue disappointment despite solid Q3 profit and cash flow - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Tyler Technologies (TYL) Q3 Earnings Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Tyler Technologies' (TYL) "Buy" Rating Reaffirmed at DA Davidson - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:59:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerpublic sector clients10-K Item 1A: 'We derive substantially all of our revenues from sales of software and services to state, county, and city governments, other federal or municipal agencies, and other public entities.'
- MEDIUMSupplierAmazon Web Services (AWS)10-K Item 1A: 'A material portion of our business is provided through software hosting services...provided by third parties, including AWS.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-29Item 1.01LOWTyler Technologies entered into Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo Bank as Administrative Agent providing $1 billion unsecured revolving facility maturing May 28, 2031, replacing the prior $700 million facility. No borrowings outstanding at closing.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-29Item 1.02MEDIUMTyler Technologies terminated its existing $700 million unsecured credit agreement dated September 25, 2024 with Wells Fargo Bank as Administrative Agent, replaced by the new $1 billion facility maturing May 28, 2031.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-29Item 2.03LOWTyler Technologies created a direct financial obligation under the new $1 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with Wells Fargo Bank. No borrowings were outstanding at closing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $404.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: public sector clients. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $375.94. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $401.52 reached (−0.7% from $404.24); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $375.94. Stop-loss: $375.94.
Concentration risk — Customer: public sector clients; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Tyler Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 50.5 (forward 26.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts rate TYL, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 22 analysts publish price targets averaging $446.
What does Tyler Technologies, Inc. do?Tyler Technologies sells integrated software and technology management solutions exclusively to public sector clients —...
Tyler Technologies sells integrated software and technology management solutions exclusively to public sector clients — cities, counties, states, and federal agencies across all 50 states. Recurring revenues of $2.0 billion represented 87% of total 2025 revenues, with client turnover running approximately 2% annually due to deep multi-year implementation cycles for mission-critical government systems.