Atlassian has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 19%, delivers 32% revenue growth with a Rule of 40 score of 57 and 26% free cash flow margins — but the stock is below its 200-day moving average with a momentum score of just 1.8, a serious 8-K corporate event was recently filed, and the death cross technical pattern is active.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Fcf Positive→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Pattern→Stable
- Severe Negative Technical Momentum↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Software - Application
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $161.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Atlassian makes team collaboration software—Jira, Confluence, Loom, and Jira Service Management—used by more than 300,000 customers including over 80% of the Fortune 500 across 200+ countries. Revenue comes from cloud subscriptions and Data Center licenses via a self-service... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $161.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 86. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.
About Atlassian Corporation
About Atlassian Corporation
Atlassian's team collaboration portfolio—Jira, Confluence, Loom, Jira Service Management, and Rovo—serves more than 300,000 customers in over 200 countries, including over 80% of the Fortune 500. The company employs 13,813 people, with over 50% engaged in research and development, and directed 51% of revenue to R&D in fiscal 2025, versus 50% in fiscal 2024.
Atlassian's revenue model is subscription-based, with cloud offerings as the primary commercial tier and Data Center as a self-managed alternative for enterprises with strict data-isolation requirements. New customers enter through a self-service flywheel, after which a direct sales force deepens enterprise relationships. The company is integrating Rovo—comprising Search, Chat, and Studio apps—into premium and enterprise editions of Jira, Confluence, and Jira Service Management at no incremental cost, an approach intended to convert platform breadth into seat expansion. Named competitors span from large technology vendors across project management, service desk, and developer tools to smaller point-solution companies. Cloud hosting costs are higher than Data Center, and initial-year cloud revenue is lower than Data Center revenue, both of which may pressure near-term margins.
Show full overview
Atlassian is migrating its customer base from Server (discontinued) and Data Center to its cloud platform, a transition that introduces ongoing margin pressure from higher hosting costs. In March 2026, Atlassian disclosed via Form 8-K a restructuring eliminating approximately 10% of its workforce, with estimated charges of $225 million to $236 million—of which $169 million to $174 million relates to cash severance and $56 million to $62 million to office space reductions—citing a goal of reallocating resources toward AI capabilities and enterprise sales.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Atlassian Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — Atlassian Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Redditors Think Wall Street is Wrong About Atlassian (TEAM) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Redditors Think Wall Street is Wrong About Atlassian (TEAM) - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Atlassian Price Target Maintained With a $130.00/Share by Macquarie - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Atlassian Price Target Maintained With a $130.00/Share by Macquarie - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
- NEWS Macquarie reiterates Atlassian stock rating ahead of earnings - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
Generated 2026-08-16T20:27:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-11Item 2.05MEDIUMAtlassian announced restructuring eliminating approximately 10% of workforce. Estimated charges of $225M–$236M: $169M–$174M cash severance/benefits, $56M–$62M office space exit charges. Actions intended to rebalance toward AI and enterprise sales.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $161.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 86. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $172.90 (+7.0%), stop $150.86 (−7.1%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $172.90 (+6.6% upside). Target $172.90 (+7.0%), stop $150.86 (−7.1%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $150.86.
Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Overbought (RSI 86).
Atlassian Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 24.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
39 analysts cover TEAM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $188.
What does Atlassian Corporation do?Atlassian makes team collaboration software—Jira, Confluence, Loom, and Jira Service Management—used by more than...
Atlassian makes team collaboration software—Jira, Confluence, Loom, and Jira Service Management—used by more than 300,000 customers including over 80% of the Fortune 500 across 200+ countries. Revenue comes from cloud subscriptions and Data Center licenses via a self-service plus enterprise sales model, with 13,813 employees and R&D consuming 51% of revenue in FY2025.