Atlassian has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 19%, delivers 32% revenue growth with a Rule of 40 score of 57 and 26% free cash flow margins — but the stock is below its 200-day moving average with a momentum score of just 1.8, a serious 8-K corporate event was recently filed, and the death cross technical pattern is active.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Fcf Positive→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Pattern→Stable
- Severe Negative Technical Momentum↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $192.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away).
Atlassian makes team collaboration software — Jira, Confluence, Loom, Bitbucket, and its Rovo AI agents — built on the Atlassian Cloud Platform, serving more than 300,000 customers in over 200 countries, including over 80% of the Fortune 500. The company spent 51% of fiscal 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $192.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.
About Atlassian Corporation
About Atlassian Corporation
Atlassian's team collaboration software — Jira, Confluence, Loom, Bitbucket, Jira Service Management, and its Rovo AI agents — served more than 300,000 customers in over 200 countries and territories as of fiscal 2025, including more than 80% of the Fortune 500. The company spent 51% of revenue on research and development in fiscal 2025, up from 50% in fiscal 2024, reflecting Atlassian's product-led strategy of landing customers through self-service before expanding into large enterprise accounts.
Atlassian earns revenue mainly through subscriptions to its cloud apps and Collections, sold via a self-service flywheel that lets teams try and adopt products with minimal friction before its sales force focuses on expanding relationships with existing large enterprise customers. The company offers several deployment options beyond standard Cloud, including Atlassian Government Cloud for FedRAMP Moderate compliance, Atlassian Isolated Cloud for single-tenant enterprise workloads, and self-managed Data Center for customers hosting on their own infrastructure. Its apps integrate with third-party platforms such as Microsoft, Zoom, Salesforce, Workday, and Dropbox, and the Atlassian Marketplace features thousands of apps built by independent developers that extend the platform further. Atlassian invests heavily in its platform, spending 51% of revenue on research and development in fiscal 2025 as it builds out AI features across its Rovo search, chat, and agent-building tools and embeds AI capabilities throughout its Jira, Confluence, and Jira Service Management apps.
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Atlassian's competitive position rests on a switching-cost bet rather than a single flagship product: its Teamwork Graph data layer and Atlassian Marketplace, which features thousands of third-party apps, are designed to make the platform stickier the more a customer's data and integrations accumulate inside it. That bet requires sustained spending to stay ahead of rapid technological change — the 10-K flags AI-driven disruption specifically, warning that new technologies delivering competitive products at lower prices or with new capabilities could render existing offerings obsolete even after Atlassian committed significant resources to developing AI apps and agents, with no guarantee those investments translate into wider adoption.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Atlassian Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Atlassian Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Redditors Think Wall Street is Wrong About Atlassian (TEAM) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Redditors Think Wall Street is Wrong About Atlassian (TEAM) - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Atlassian Price Target Maintained With a $130.00/Share by Macquarie - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Atlassian Price Target Maintained With a $130.00/Share by Macquarie - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
- NEWS Macquarie reiterates Atlassian stock rating ahead of earnings - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T23:46:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-11Item 2.05MEDIUMAtlassian announced a restructuring eliminating roles affecting about 10% of its workforce to fund AI and enterprise-sales investment; the company expects $225-236 million in charges, including $169-174 million in cash severance/transition costs and $56-62 million in office-space exit charges.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $192.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $179.44. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $196.00 (-2.8% upside). Prior stop was $179.44. Stop-loss: $179.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).
Atlassian Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 28.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
40 analysts cover TEAM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $204.
What does Atlassian Corporation do?Atlassian makes team collaboration software — Jira, Confluence, Loom, Bitbucket, and its Rovo AI agents — built on the...
Atlassian makes team collaboration software — Jira, Confluence, Loom, Bitbucket, and its Rovo AI agents — built on the Atlassian Cloud Platform, serving more than 300,000 customers in over 200 countries, including over 80% of the Fortune 500. The company spent 51% of fiscal 2025 revenue on R&D and grows mainly through a self-service model that lands small teams cheaply and expands them into large enterprise accounts.