Atlassian has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 19%, delivers 32% revenue growth with a Rule of 40 score of 57 and 26% free cash flow margins — but the stock is below its 200-day moving average with a momentum score of just 1.8, a serious 8-K corporate event was recently filed, and the death cross technical pattern is active.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Fcf Positive→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Pattern↑Improving
- Severe Negative Technical Momentum↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $204.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away).
Atlassian sells collaboration and work-management software such as Jira and Confluence, increasingly through Cloud offerings, with most transactions conducted on its website and via solution partners. Research and development was 51% of revenue in fiscal 2025.
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $204.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.
About Atlassian Corporation
About Atlassian Corporation
Atlassian's collaboration software — Jira, Confluence, Loom, Bitbucket, and its Rovo AI agents — reaches more than 300,000 customers, including over 80% of the Fortune 500, across more than 200 countries and territories. Research and development spending equaled 51% of revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 50% in fiscal 2024, funding a shift from legacy Server and Data Center products toward its Atlassian Cloud Platform, where more than 13,800 full-time employees support a self-service, land-and-expand distribution model.
Atlassian sells subscriptions to its Cloud apps and Collections primarily through a low-touch, self-service flywheel — word-of-mouth trial and viral expansion within an organization — reserving its direct sales force mainly for deepening relationships with its largest enterprise accounts, supplemented by a global network of solution partners for deployment and localization support. The company is migrating customers from legacy Server (discontinued) and self-managed Data Center products to Cloud, a transition that raises hosting expenses and compresses near-term margins because Cloud revenue is typically recognized at a lower rate in its first year than Data Center revenue, and because Atlassian offers its AI tools at no or low cost to most Cloud customers. Atlassian competes against large technology vendors and smaller point-solution providers across its software-team, service-team, and business-team markets, and depends on certain third-party AI model and integration providers to power features embedded across its apps.
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Atlassian's competitive position rests less on any single app than on the Teamwork Graph, a common data layer the 10-K describes as continuously expanding its knowledge with every integration and action across Atlassian and third-party tools, and on the Atlassian Marketplace and Forge developer platform, which the filing says features thousands of apps built by outside developers and vendors. Because Jira, Confluence, Bitbucket, and Rovo all draw on this shared platform and data model, a customer that has connected multiple teams and third-party tools into the Teamwork Graph faces a steeper switching cost than one using any single standalone app — a network effect the filing frames as central to expansion revenue rather than new-customer acquisition.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Atlassian Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Atlassian Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Redditors Think Wall Street is Wrong About Atlassian (TEAM) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Redditors Think Wall Street is Wrong About Atlassian (TEAM) - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Atlassian Price Target Maintained With a $130.00/Share by Macquarie - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Atlassian Price Target Maintained With a $130.00/Share by Macquarie - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
- NEWS Macquarie reiterates Atlassian stock rating ahead of earnings - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:32:15Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-11Item 2.05MEDIUMRestructuring announced March 11, 2026 eliminating roles at about 10% of the workforce; estimated charges of $225-$236 million, of which $169-$174 million are future cash outlays for severance and related costs.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $204.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $190.33. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $210.47 (-5.0% upside). Prior stop was $190.33. Stop-loss: $190.33.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).
Atlassian Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 30.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
40 analysts cover TEAM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $211.
What does Atlassian Corporation do?Atlassian sells collaboration and work-management software such as Jira and Confluence, increasingly through Cloud...
Atlassian sells collaboration and work-management software such as Jira and Confluence, increasingly through Cloud offerings, with most transactions conducted on its website and via solution partners. Research and development was 51% of revenue in fiscal 2025.