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Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.54 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Paychex is an HCM company serving ~800,000 clients in the US and parts of Europe with payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions across three technology platforms. Revenue comes from subscription-based SaaS fees plus PEO co-employment services; the company completed its... Read more

$91.54+0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#82 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.20%(5y avg 2.80%)Payout95.36%at-risk
Stop $85.96Target $92.31(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$100.93+10.3%15 analysts
$92.31our TP
$91.54price
$100.93mean
$125

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.54 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Paychex, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.9 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.2
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$32.8B
EV/EBITDA22.4
Profit Mgn26.6%
ROE
Rev Growth19.9%
Beta
Dividend5.20%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.7
Macd
2.8
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.8
Support Resistance
3.9
Bollinger
4.4
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $87.43Resistance $94.19

Price Targets

$86
$92
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.54 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $85.96. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAYX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $92.31 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $85.96. Stop-loss: $85.96.

What are the risks of investing in PAYX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is PAYX overvalued or undervalued?

Paychex, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAYX?

25 analysts cover PAYX with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $101.

What does Paychex, Inc. do?Paychex is an HCM company serving ~800,000 clients in the US and parts of Europe with payroll, HR, benefits, and...

Paychex is an HCM company serving ~800,000 clients in the US and parts of Europe with payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions across three technology platforms. Revenue comes from subscription-based SaaS fees plus PEO co-employment services; the company completed its acquisition of Paycor HCM in April 2025, significantly expanding its upmarket presence.

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