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PAYXPaychex, Inc.Sell5.6·$115.65
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Paychex delivers best-in-class margins at 27% net margin with strong MACD improvement and rising on-balance volume, but the stock has already exceeded analyst price targets with negative upside of 9.4%, and earnings in 8 days with a mixed 2/2 beat/miss record present immediate binary risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Margin Profile→Stable
  • Macd Momentum Recovery↑Improving
  • Dividend Income Anchor↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jul 17, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $115.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Paychex sells payroll, HR, benefits, retirement and insurance services, plus HR outsourcing (ASO and PEO), to small and mid-sized businesses in the U.S. and parts of Europe, serving about 840,000 customers including 800,000 payroll clients as of May 31, 2026. More than 60% of... Read more

$115.65-13.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#68 of 116 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.58%
IncomeYield4.12%(5y avg 2.84%)Payout90.08%at-risk
Stop $108.53Analyst target $99.68(reached)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst consensus$114.57-0.9%14 analysts with price targets
$115.65price
$114.57mean
$96
$150

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $115.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Paychex, Inc.

About Paychex, Inc.

Paychex served approximately 800,000 clients across the U.S. and parts of Europe as of May 31, 2025, delivering human capital management through three technology platforms — SurePayroll, Paychex Flex, and the newly acquired Paycor — following its April 2025 acquisition of Paycor HCM, funded partly with $4.2 billion in corporate bonds. Client retention ran 82% to 83% of the beginning client base in fiscal 2025, and more than half of payroll clients originate through referral sources such as CPAs, benefit brokers, and banks.

Paychex earns revenue through payroll processing (calculating and delivering paychecks, filing payroll tax returns, remitting client payroll obligations) integrated with HCM software modules covering HR, talent acquisition, talent management, workforce management, and benefits administration, sold via SaaS subscription and service fees. Its PEO business generates additional revenue as a co-employer that assumes workers' compensation and health insurance risk for worksite employees, while its ASO business offers similar HR outsourcing without the co-employment relationship. The company also earns interest income by investing client payroll funds collected but not yet remitted to tax authorities or employees, a stream sensitive to withholding regulations and remittance timing rules. Funding solutions — through subsidiaries Paychex Advance and Alterna Capital Solutions — provide accounts-receivable purchase financing to the temporary staffing industry and small businesses. Compensation-related expenses made up approximately 55% of total expenses in fiscal 2025, reflecting the company's roughly 19,000-person, largely U.S.-based workforce.

Show full overview

More than half of Paychex's payroll clients arrive through referral sources — existing clients, CPAs, benefit brokers, and banks — rather than direct sales, making the health of those third-party relationships as important to growth as the company's own sales force. Its longest-standing referral partnership, with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants as the preferred payroll provider for the AICPA Business Solutions Program, runs only through September 2027, and the 10-K does not disclose a successor agreement already in place, leaving a defined renewal date on a channel the company otherwise describes as central to new-client acquisition.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Paychex, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 3, 2026

Recent Developments — Paychex, Inc.

Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:37Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Dec 18, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.9 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.9
P/E (Fwd)18.1
Mkt Cap$41.2B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE47.1%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.80
Dividend4.12%
Analysts with ratings26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$150+29.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerreferral sources for payroll clients
    10-K Item 1: 'More than 50% of our payroll clients come from these referral sources'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-21Item 5.02LOW
    Director Kara Wilson will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting; the Board will shrink from 11 to 10 directors when her term expires. No disagreement with the company cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $100.07Resistance $118.27

Price Targets

A.Upside-13.8%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-18 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $115.65 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $108.53. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAYX stock price target?

Analyst target $99.68 reached (−13.8% from $115.65); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $108.53. Stop-loss: $108.53.

What are the risks of investing in PAYX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is PAYX overvalued or undervalued?

Paychex, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.9 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAYX?

26 analysts rate PAYX, with a consensus score of 3.4/5. 14 analysts publish price targets averaging $115.

What does Paychex, Inc. do?Paychex sells payroll, HR, benefits, retirement and insurance services, plus HR outsourcing (ASO and PEO), to small and...

Paychex sells payroll, HR, benefits, retirement and insurance services, plus HR outsourcing (ASO and PEO), to small and mid-sized businesses in the U.S. and parts of Europe, serving about 840,000 customers including 800,000 payroll clients as of May 31, 2026. More than 60% of revenue comes from solutions other than payroll processing, and the April 2025 Paycor acquisition added larger-business software. Most customers can leave on 30 days' notice.

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