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Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $93.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Paychex is an HCM company providing payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions to approximately 800,000 clients in the U.S. and parts of Europe as of May 31, 2025. Over 50% of revenues come from solutions other than payroll processing. In April 2025, Paychex completed the... Read more

$93.42+0.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#59 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $88.40Target $93.49(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$100.93+8.0%15 analysts
$93.49our TP
$93.42price
$100.93mean
$125

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $93.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.8
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$33.7B
EV/EBITDA23.0
Profit Mgn26.6%
ROE
Rev Growth19.9%
Beta
Dividend4.59%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.52bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$65-30.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.9
Support Resistance
2.1
Bollinger
2.3
Gap
6.0
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $85.45Resistance $95.40

Price Targets

$88
$93
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $93.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $88.40. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAYX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $93.49 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $88.40. Stop-loss: $88.40.

What are the risks of investing in PAYX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PAYX overvalued or undervalued?

Paychex, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAYX?

25 analysts cover PAYX with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $101.

What does Paychex, Inc. do?Paychex is an HCM company providing payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions to approximately 800,000 clients in...

Paychex is an HCM company providing payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions to approximately 800,000 clients in the U.S. and parts of Europe as of May 31, 2025. Over 50% of revenues come from solutions other than payroll processing. In April 2025, Paychex completed the acquisition of Paycor HCM, funded by $4.2 billion in fixed-rate corporate debt, expanding capabilities upmarket.

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