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Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $244.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (64.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Autodesk provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software across AEC, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals globally, sold via ~1,170 resellers/distributors and direct channels. Revenue is primarily subscription-based; 64% is derived from international... Read more

$244.16+22.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#24 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.42%
Stop $227.54Target $299.30(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$325.33+33.2%32 analysts
$299.30our TP
$244.16price
$325.33mean
$456

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $244.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (64.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Autodesk, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international (64.0%)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.5
P/E (Fwd)17.3
Mkt Cap$51.4B
EV/EBITDA27.0
Profit Mgn15.6%
ROE39.7%
Rev Growth19.4%
Beta1.32
DividendNone
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerTD Synnex14%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue through our largest distributor, TD Synnex Corporation and its global affiliates (collectively, "TD Synnex"), accounted for 14%...of our net revenue for the fiscal years ended January 31, 2026'
  • HIGHGeographicinternational64%
    10-K Item 1A: 'International net revenue represented 64% of our net revenue for both fiscal 2026 and 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOW
    Director Stephen Milligan informed the Board on April 20, 2026 he would not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Omar Abbosh nominated as replacement. No officer departure; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

Gates8K SERIOUS 2.05Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $225.28Resistance $255.13

Price Targets

$228
$299
A.Upside+22.6%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! 8K_SERIOUS:2.05

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADSK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $244.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (64.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $299.30 (+22.6%), stop $227.54 (−7.3%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADSK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $299.30 (+22.6% upside). Target $299.30 (+22.6%), stop $227.54 (−7.3%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $227.54.

What are the risks of investing in ADSK?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international (64.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADSK overvalued or undervalued?

Autodesk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 46.5 (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADSK?

40 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $325.

What does Autodesk, Inc. do?Autodesk provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software across AEC, manufacturing, and media/entertainment...

Autodesk provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software across AEC, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals globally, sold via ~1,170 resellers/distributors and direct channels. Revenue is primarily subscription-based; 64% is derived from international markets and ~37% flows through indirect channel distributors including TD Synnex (14% of fiscal 2026 net revenue).

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