Autodesk combines a wide economic moat, return on equity of 50%, free cash flow conversion at 209% of net income, and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with a valuation that screens attractively at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.9x and PEG of 0.76 — offering roughly 48% upside to the analyst consensus target at a reward-to-risk ratio of nearly 8-to-1; the principal obstacle is an ongoing technical breakdown that must stabilize before the fundamental setup can be realized.
Thesis pillars
- Growth At Attractive Valuation↓Deteriorating
- International Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Wide Moat Cash Conversion Excellence→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $228.00. At $251.75 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $228.00 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%).
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based... Read more
Wait for pullback to $228.00. At $251.75 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $228.00 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.98, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/11 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news boost analyst cluster(5), semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — Autodesk, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Shares Surge 3.3% -- What GF Score of 81 Tel - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Want ADSK Stock 30% Cheaper? Get Paid 12% While You Wait - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings? - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings? - stockstory.org — stockstory.org neutral
- NEWS Adobe vs. Autodesk: Which Creative Software Stock Is the Better Buy? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-08-16T13:27:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational revenue64%10-K Item 1A: 'International net revenue represented 64% of our net revenue for both fiscal 2026 and 2025'
- LOWCustomerTD Synnex14%10-K Item 1: 'TD Synnex Corporation...accounted for 14%, 33%, and 39% of our net revenue'
- MEDIUMProductAutoCAD-based products10-K Item 1A: 'Deriving a substantial portion of our net revenue from a small number of solutions, including our AutoCAD-based software products and collections'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOWDirector Stephen Milligan informed the Board on April 20, 2026 of his intention not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Omar Abbosh nominated as replacement. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $228.00. At $251.75 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $228.00 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.98, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10). Target $287.19 (+14.1%), stop $207.97 (−21.1%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $287.19 (+14.1% upside). Target $287.19 (+14.1%), stop $207.97 (−21.1%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $207.97.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%).
Autodesk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.7 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
42 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $312.
What does Autodesk, Inc. do?Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and...
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based products and collections represent a substantial portion of net revenue.