Autodesk combines a wide economic moat, return on equity of 50%, free cash flow conversion at 209% of net income, and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with a valuation that screens attractively at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.9x and PEG of 0.76 — offering roughly 48% upside to the analyst consensus target at a reward-to-risk ratio of nearly 8-to-1; the principal obstacle is an ongoing technical breakdown that must stabilize before the fundamental setup can be realized.
Thesis pillars
- Growth At Attractive Valuation↑Improving
- International Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Wide Moat Cash Conversion Excellence→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge
Technology · Software - Application
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $228.00 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based... Read more
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $228.00 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.93, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.2/10). Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-05Recent Developments — Autodesk, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Shares Surge 3.3% -- What GF Score of 81 Tel - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Want ADSK Stock 30% Cheaper? Get Paid 12% While You Wait - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings? - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings? - stockstory.org — stockstory.org neutral
- NEWS Adobe vs. Autodesk: Which Creative Software Stock Is the Better Buy? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-09-05T21:17:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational revenue64%10-K Item 1A: 'International net revenue represented 64% of our net revenue for both fiscal 2026 and 2025'
- LOWCustomerTD Synnex14%10-K Item 1: 'TD Synnex Corporation...accounted for 14%, 33%, and 39% of our net revenue'
- MEDIUMProductAutoCAD-based products10-K Item 1A: 'Deriving a substantial portion of our net revenue from a small number of solutions, including our AutoCAD-based software products and collections'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOWDirector Stephen Milligan informed the Board on April 20, 2026 of his intention not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Omar Abbosh nominated as replacement. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $228.00 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.93, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.2/10). Target $290.14 (+32.9%), stop $205.82 (−6.1%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $290.14 (+33.2% upside). Target $290.14 (+32.9%), stop $205.82 (−6.1%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $205.82.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Autodesk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.8 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
43 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $315.
What does Autodesk, Inc. do?Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and...
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based products and collections represent a substantial portion of net revenue.