Autodesk combines a wide economic moat, return on equity of 50%, free cash flow conversion at 209% of net income, and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with a valuation that screens attractively at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.9x and PEG of 0.76 — offering roughly 48% upside to the analyst consensus target at a reward-to-risk ratio of nearly 8-to-1; the principal obstacle is an ongoing technical breakdown that must stabilize before the fundamental setup can be realized.
Thesis pillars
- Growth At Attractive Valuation→Stable
- International Revenue Concentration→Stable
- Wide Moat Cash Conversion Excellence→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Conditional: momentum 5.7/10 (below 6.0 threshold), death cross active, analysts disagree (1.9× target spread) — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.
Technology · Software - Application
Buy at $207.66 (limit $207.54). A.R:R 3.9:1 at $207.66 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $293.05 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$85 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 8.5 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 5.7 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 3.9:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: aggressive — not a conservative entry. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based... Read more
Buy at $207.66 (limit $207.54). A.R:R 3.9:1 at $207.66 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $293.05 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$85 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 8.5 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 5.7 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 3.9:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: aggressive — not a conservative entry. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.77, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 8/10). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Autodesk, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Adobe vs. Autodesk: Which Creative Software Stock Is the Better Buy? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Technology Companies: Enphase Energy (ENPH), ASE Technology Holding Co (ASX) and Autodesk (AD — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Is Autodesk (ADSK) One of the Best Big Tech Stocks to Buy According to Wall Street Analysts? - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational revenue64%10-K Item 1A: 'International net revenue represented 64% of our net revenue for both fiscal 2026 and 2025'
- LOWCustomerTD Synnex14%10-K Item 1: 'TD Synnex Corporation...accounted for 14%, 33%, and 39% of our net revenue'
- MEDIUMProductAutoCAD-based products10-K Item 1A: 'Deriving a substantial portion of our net revenue from a small number of solutions, including our AutoCAD-based software products and collections'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOWDirector Stephen Milligan informed the Board on April 20, 2026 of his intention not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Omar Abbosh nominated as replacement. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Buy at $207.66 (limit $207.54). A.R:R 3.9:1 at $207.66 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $293.05 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$85 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 8.5 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 5.7 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 3.9:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: aggressive — not a conservative entry. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.77, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10). Target $293.05 (+41.1%), stop $193.01 (−7.6%), A.R:R 3.9:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $293.05 (+41.2% upside). Target $293.05 (+41.1%), stop $193.01 (−7.6%), A.R:R 3.9:1. Stop-loss: $193.01.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Autodesk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.3 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.
40 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $319.
What does Autodesk, Inc. do?Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and...
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based products and collections represent a substantial portion of net revenue.