Autodesk is a high-quality software compounder (ROE 54%, wide moat, Rule of 40 at 57) with strong growth, but at $249.61 the reward-to-risk is only 1.06 on 13.4% upside, so patience for a better entry is warranted.
Thesis pillars
- Rule Of 40 Growth Profile→Stable
- International Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Wide Moat Quality Compounder→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 3, 2026
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $233.95. At $270.09 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $233.95 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.8%.
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based... Read more
Wait for pullback to $233.95. At $270.09 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $233.95 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.8%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.2/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — Autodesk, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Autodesk (NasdaqGS:ADSK) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Autodesk Well Positioned to Capitalize on Construction Market Digitization, Oppenheimer Says - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Autodesk, Inc. $ADSK Stock: Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. Decreases Holdings - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Note - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Autodesk (ADSK) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Note - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com Sep 30, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:28:59Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational revenue64%10-K Item 1A: 'International net revenue represented 64% of our net revenue for both fiscal 2026 and 2025'
- LOWCustomerTD Synnex14%10-K Item 1: 'TD Synnex Corporation...accounted for 14%, 33%, and 39% of our net revenue'
- MEDIUMProductAutoCAD-based products10-K Item 1A: 'Deriving a substantial portion of our net revenue from a small number of solutions, including our AutoCAD-based software products and collections'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOWDirector Stephen Milligan informed the Board on April 20, 2026 of his intention not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Omar Abbosh nominated as replacement. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $233.95. At $270.09 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $233.95 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.8%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.2/10). Target $282.94 (+4.8%), stop $221.73 (−21.8%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $282.94 (+4.8% upside). Target $282.94 (+4.8%), stop $221.73 (−21.8%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $221.73.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (64.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Autodesk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.0 (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
44 analysts rate ADSK, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 34 analysts publish price targets averaging $308.
What does Autodesk, Inc. do?Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and...
Autodesk provides subscription-based 3D design and engineering software across AECO, manufacturing, and media/entertainment verticals, selling globally through direct and indirect channels. In fiscal 2026, 64% of net revenue came from international markets; AutoCAD-based products and collections represent a substantial portion of net revenue.