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Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $236.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Autodesk develops 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software for architecture, manufacturing, and media industries globally, sold primarily through subscriptions. International revenue represented 64% of net revenue in fiscal 2026. TD Synnex, formerly the largest... Read more

$236.31+26.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#31 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $219.80Target $299.50(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$325.55+37.8%32 analysts
$299.50our TP
$236.31price
$325.55mean
$456

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $236.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.0
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$49.8B
EV/EBITDA26.2
Profit Mgn15.6%
ROE39.7%
Rev Growth19.4%
Beta1.43
DividendNone
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$160-32.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerTD Synnex14%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue through our largest distributor, TD Synnex Corporation...accounted for 14%...of our net revenue for the fiscal years ended January 31, 2026'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOW
    Director Stephen Milligan notified Board on April 20, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting. No reason cited for retirement; Omar Abbosh nominated as replacement. No disagreement with company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.4
Ma Position
4.0
Macd
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)8K SERIOUS 2.05A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $214.10Resistance $250.91

Price Targets

$220
$300
A.Upside+26.7%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! 8K_SERIOUS:2.05

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADSK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $236.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $299.50 (+26.7%), stop $219.80 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADSK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $299.50 (+26.7% upside). Target $299.50 (+26.7%), stop $219.80 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $219.80.

What are the risks of investing in ADSK?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADSK overvalued or undervalued?

Autodesk, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.0 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADSK?

39 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $326.

What does Autodesk, Inc. do?Autodesk develops 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software for architecture, manufacturing, and media...

Autodesk develops 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software for architecture, manufacturing, and media industries globally, sold primarily through subscriptions. International revenue represented 64% of net revenue in fiscal 2026. TD Synnex, formerly the largest distributor, accounted for 14% of fiscal 2026 net revenue; Autodesk considers its business no longer substantially dependent on TD Synnex.

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