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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $238.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: subscription and support (80.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Palo Alto Networks is a global cybersecurity provider offering Network Security (NGFWs, Prisma SASE), Security Operations (Cortex XSIAM, XDR, SOAR), and Threat Intelligence (Unit 42) platforms. Subscription and support comprised 80.5% of fiscal 2025 revenue; substantially all... Read more

$238.71-0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#52 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.45%
Stop $225.83Target $240.88(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$210.76-11.7%50 analysts
$240.88our TP
$238.71price
$210.76mean
$114
$275

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $238.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: subscription and support (80.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.80)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: subscription and support (80.5%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)134.9
P/E (Fwd)61.2
Mkt Cap$196.9B
EV/EBITDA126.3
Profit Mgn13.0%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth14.9%
Beta0.77
DividendNone
Rating analysts64

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.98neutral
IV75%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-3 distributors44%
    10-K Item 1A: 'three distributors individually represented 10% or more of our total revenue and in the aggregate represented 44.2% of our total revenue'
  • HIGHProductsubscription and support81%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Subscription and support revenue accounts for a significant portion of our revenue, comprising 80.5% of total revenue in fiscal 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.8
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.4
Forward P/E: 61.2xPEG: 3.49Expensive valuation

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
9.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
4.4
Quality Rank
6.4
GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 15d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
93 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $165.20Resistance $245.80

Price Targets

$226
$241
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-02 (15d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PANW stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $238.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: subscription and support (80.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $240.88 (+0.9%), stop $225.83 (−5.7%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the PANW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $240.88 (-0.8% upside). Target $240.88 (+0.9%), stop $225.83 (−5.7%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $225.83.

What are the risks of investing in PANW?

Concentration risk — Product: subscription and support (80.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.2% away).

Is PANW overvalued or undervalued?

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. trades at a P/E of 134.9 (forward 61.2). TrendMatrix value score: 1.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PANW?

64 analysts cover PANW with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $211.

What does Palo Alto Networks, Inc. do?Palo Alto Networks is a global cybersecurity provider offering Network Security (NGFWs, Prisma SASE), Security...

Palo Alto Networks is a global cybersecurity provider offering Network Security (NGFWs, Prisma SASE), Security Operations (Cortex XSIAM, XDR, SOAR), and Threat Intelligence (Unit 42) platforms. Subscription and support comprised 80.5% of fiscal 2025 revenue; substantially all revenue is generated through channel partners.

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