Skip to main content

Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $82.93, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC.

Fortinet provides cybersecurity through its integrated Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified SASE, and AI-driven SecOps, serving customers in 100+ countries. In 2025, it generated .80 billion in revenue and .85 billion net income, selling primarily through... Read more

$82.93+3.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#64 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $77.27Target $85.89(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$89.43+7.8%35 analysts
$85.89our TP
$82.93price
$89.43mean
$64
$120

Sell if holding. At $82.93, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.6
P/E (Fwd)26.0
Mkt Cap$63.7B
EV/EBITDA27.5
Profit Mgn27.3%
ROE135.7%
Rev Growth14.8%
Beta1.00
DividendNone
Rating analysts51

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.65bearish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$55-33.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTaiwan87%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 87% of our hardware is manufactured in Taiwan'
  • HIGHSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1A: 'foundries in Taiwan and Japan operated by either Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ("TSMC") or by the contract manufacturer itself'
  • MEDIUMCustomersmall number of distributors
    10-K Item 1A: 'a small number of distributors represents a large percentage of our revenue and accounts receivable'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
3.6
Ps
3.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
4.4
Forward Pe
4.8
Forward P/E: 26.0xPEG: 2.08
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $76.01Resistance $87.64

Price Targets

$77
$86
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTNT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $82.93, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $77.27. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTNT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.89 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $77.27. Stop-loss: $77.27.

What are the risks of investing in FTNT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FTNT overvalued or undervalued?

Fortinet, Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.6 (forward 26.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FTNT?

51 analysts cover FTNT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $89.

What does Fortinet, Inc. do?Fortinet provides cybersecurity through its integrated Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified...

Fortinet provides cybersecurity through its integrated Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified SASE, and AI-driven SecOps, serving customers in 100+ countries. In 2025, it generated .80 billion in revenue and .85 billion net income, selling primarily through a two-tier distribution model.

Related stocks: KSPI (Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - ) · GEN (Gen Digital Inc.) · PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.) · RBRK (Rubrik, Inc.) · GDDY (GoDaddy Inc.)