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Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $126.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%).

Fortinet is a cybersecurity company providing the Fortinet Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified SASE, and AI-driven SecOps, with customers in 100+ countries. It generated $6.80B revenue in 2025; products are sold primarily through a two-tier distribution... Read more

$126.00-1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#40 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.94%
Stop $118.71Target $125.64(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$107.17-14.9%36 analysts
$125.64our TP
$126.00price
$107.17mean
$70

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $126.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Fortinet, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.5 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.5
P/E (Fwd)37.3
Mkt Cap$93.5B
EV/EBITDA38.4
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE132.4%
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts52

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.00bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$55-56.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTaiwan87%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 87% of our hardware is manufactured in Taiwan.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1: 'contract manufacturers use foundries in Taiwan and Japan operated by either Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ("TSMC") or by the contract manufacturer itself'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
1.3
Pe
2.5
Forward Pe
2.9
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.8
Forward P/E: 37.3xPEG: 2.77Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
93 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $81.81Resistance $128.20

Price Targets

$119
$126
A.Upside-0.3%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTNT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $126.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $118.71. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTNT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $125.64 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $118.71. Stop-loss: $118.71.

What are the risks of investing in FTNT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.4% away).

Is FTNT overvalued or undervalued?

Fortinet, Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.5 (forward 37.3). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FTNT?

52 analysts cover FTNT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $107.

What does Fortinet, Inc. do?Fortinet is a cybersecurity company providing the Fortinet Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified...

Fortinet is a cybersecurity company providing the Fortinet Security Fabric platform spanning secure networking, unified SASE, and AI-driven SecOps, with customers in 100+ countries. It generated $6.80B revenue in 2025; products are sold primarily through a two-tier distribution model. Approximately 87% of hardware is manufactured in Taiwan.

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