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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $162.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure through Oracle Cloud Services (OCA and OCI) and on-premise deployments worldwide, serving businesses, governments, and educational institutions. Revenue comes from cloud subscriptions, license support, hardware, and... Read more

$162.11+38.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#48 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $150.77Target $223.77(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$243.23+50.0%39 analysts
$223.77our TP
$162.11price
$243.23mean
$400

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $162.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 38%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.4
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$471.2B
EV/EBITDA21.9
Profit Mgn25.3%
ROE57.6%
Rev Growth21.7%
Beta1.60
Dividend1.22%
Rating analysts51

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$75-53.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Hilary Maxson appointed Chief Financial Officer of Oracle effective April 6, 2026. Previously EVP and Group CFO at Schneider Electric SE from 2020 to April 2026. No reason cited for predecessor's departure; no family relationship or related party transactions.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $134.57Resistance $189.18

Price Targets

$151
$224
A.Upside+38.0%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-10 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORCL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $162.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $150.77. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the ORCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $223.77 (+38.0% upside). Prior stop was $150.77. Stop-loss: $150.77.

What are the risks of investing in ORCL?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ORCL overvalued or undervalued?

Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 29.4 (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ORCL?

51 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $243.

What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure through Oracle Cloud Services (OCA and OCI) and on-premise...

Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure through Oracle Cloud Services (OCA and OCI) and on-premise deployments worldwide, serving businesses, governments, and educational institutions. Revenue comes from cloud subscriptions, license support, hardware, and professional services; R&D investment totaled $9.9 billion in fiscal 2025. The company offers flexible deployment models from on-premise to hybrid cloud.

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