Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 22, 2026· older than 90 days
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $126.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: cloud revenues (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor technologies and components.
Oracle sells enterprise cloud applications (Fusion ERP, HCM, CX, NetSuite, Oracle Health), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, database and middleware software licenses with support, and hardware such as Exadata through three businesses: cloud and software, hardware and services. Cloud... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $126.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: cloud revenues (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor technologies and components. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle reports three businesses, cloud and software, hardware, and services, and cloud revenues reached 51% of total revenues in fiscal 2026, up from 43% in fiscal 2025 and 37% in fiscal 2024. The company invested $10.3 billion in research and development in fiscal 2026, compared with $9.9 billion and $8.9 billion in the prior two years, and sells through a direct worldwide sales force and the Oracle Partner Network to businesses, government agencies, educational institutions and resellers.
Within cloud revenues, infrastructure accounted for 53% in fiscal 2026 and applications for 47%, a reversal from fiscal 2024 when applications were 65% and infrastructure 35%. Oracle Cloud Applications are sold as subscriptions and include Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM and CX, the NetSuite suite for smaller organizations and Oracle Health. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure offers compute from virtual machines to GPU-based and bare metal servers, storage, and the Oracle Autonomous AI Database, which also runs inside other hyperscale clouds through multicloud arrangements. Software licenses cover Oracle AI Database, Middleware and Java, and substantially all license buyers purchase support contracts. Support customers who migrated to Oracle Cloud over the past three fiscal years added $5.4 billion of annualized cloud revenue.
Show full overview
Capacity commitments are the lens that stands out. To grow Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, the company has entered long-term leases with third-party data center providers and commitments with chip and equipment suppliers, and the 10-K says that if demand falls short or key customers cannot pay, Oracle could be locked into multi-year commitments for unused space without matching revenue. Lease terms typically do not align with customer contract durations, power supply is described as constrained globally, and some components can only be bought from a single vendor. In certain infrastructure offerings the customer base is more concentrated among a number of large customers, which may raise credit and non-performance risk. The filing also lists an At the Market (ATM) Program and 6.50% Series D Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock among financing-related risks that could dilute common shareholders.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Jim Cramer Sees These 'Non-Magnificent' Tech Stocks Emerging as Market Leaders While Nvidia, Microsoft Struggle: 'It's J — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 'Oracle Cancels $7bn Tencent AI Deal Under Trump Pressure' - FT — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Here’s How Much Traders Expect Oracle Stock to Move After Earnings - Investopedia — Investopedia Sep 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Here’s How Much Oracle Stock Is Expected to Move After Earnings - Investopedia — Investopedia Sep 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Here’s How Much Oracle Stock Is Expected to Move After Earnings - investopedia.com — investopedia.com Sep 9, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:29:29Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcloud revenues51%10-K Item 1: 'our cloud revenues represented 51%, 43% and 37% of our total revenues during fiscal 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
- MEDIUMCustomerlarge customers in certain OCI offerings10-K Item 1A: 'In certain OCI offerings, we are more concentrated among a number of large customers'
- HIGHSuppliersingle vendor technologies and components10-K Item 1A: 'there are some technologies and components that can only be purchased from a single vendor'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $126.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: cloud revenues (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor technologies and components. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $214.67 (+70.1%), stop $117.36 (−7.5%), A.R:R 5.6:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $214.67 (+70.1% upside). Analyst target $214.67 (+70.1%), stop $117.36 (−7.5%), A.R:R 5.6:1. Stop-loss: $117.36.
Concentration risk — Product: cloud revenues (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor technologies and components; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.8 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
47 analysts rate ORCL, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 38 analysts publish price targets averaging $233.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle sells enterprise cloud applications (Fusion ERP, HCM, CX, NetSuite, Oracle Health), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure,...
Oracle sells enterprise cloud applications (Fusion ERP, HCM, CX, NetSuite, Oracle Health), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, database and middleware software licenses with support, and hardware such as Exadata through three businesses: cloud and software, hardware and services. Cloud revenues were 51% of fiscal 2026 total revenues, up from 37% in fiscal 2024. Customers buy through a direct global sales force and the Oracle Partner Network.