Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. At $193.03, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Oracle provides enterprise IT solutions globally through cloud and license (Oracle Cloud Applications and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure), hardware, and services segments. Revenue spans cloud subscriptions (43% of FY2025 total), perpetual licenses, license support, hardware, and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $193.03, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle Corporation's cloud and license business generated cloud services representing 43% of total revenues in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal 2024 and 32% in fiscal 2023, reflecting a multi-year migration of enterprise customers from on-premise to Oracle Cloud. The company invested $9.9 billion in R&D in fiscal 2025. Infrastructure cloud services (OCI) accounted for 56% and applications cloud services (OCA) for 44% of total cloud and license support revenues.
Oracle earns revenue through three segments: cloud and license (the dominant segment), hardware, and professional services. The cloud and license business covers Oracle Cloud Applications—spanning Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM, SCM, and NetSuite—sold as subscriptions, plus Oracle Cloud Infrastructure compute, storage, networking, and database services priced on consumption. On-premise license customers typically purchase annual support contracts. The hardware segment sells Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, and storage with associated support contracts; manufacturing and assembly is outsourced to companies outside the U.S., and certain components can only be sourced from a single vendor due to availability constraints. OCI interoperates with Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud through multicloud partnerships, though the 10-K notes this multicloud strategy could lead customers to shift workloads to competitors' products.
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Oracle's 10-K explicitly discloses that certain data center components can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, or availability constraints. Additionally, industry supply capacity for AI accelerators, including graphics processing units, is competitive enough that the company at times must accept less favorable supplier terms to secure supply, increasing excess and obsolescence risk. Long-term data center lease commitments with third-party providers carry significant contract termination fees, meaning both underestimating and overestimating demand forecasts may weigh on profitability.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-06-17T08:56:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSuppliersingle-vendor hardware/cloud components10-K Item 1A: 'there are some technologies and components that can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, availability or other business constraints'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUMHilary Maxson appointed as Chief Financial Officer of Oracle effective April 6, 2026. Successor named; previously EVP and Group CFO at Schneider Electric SE from 2020 to April 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $193.03, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $179.62. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $234.95 (+21.6% upside). Prior stop was $179.62. Stop-loss: $179.62.
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 31.5 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
49 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $255.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise IT solutions globally through cloud and license (Oracle Cloud Applications and Oracle Cloud...
Oracle provides enterprise IT solutions globally through cloud and license (Oracle Cloud Applications and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure), hardware, and services segments. Revenue spans cloud subscriptions (43% of FY2025 total), perpetual licenses, license support, hardware, and professional services to businesses, governments, and institutions worldwide.