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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $181.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Oracle provides enterprise IT solutions globally through cloud and license (Oracle Cloud Applications and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure), hardware, and services segments. Revenue spans cloud subscriptions (43% of FY2025 total), perpetual licenses, license support, hardware, and... Read more

$181.80+23.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#53 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-4.27%
IncomeYield1.10%(5y avg 1.28%)Payout35.91%sustainable
Stop $168.76Target $223.32(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$242.74+33.5%39 analysts
$223.32our TP
$181.80price
$242.74mean
$155
$400

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $181.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.1Qual6.7Grw7.4Mom1.8Sent7.5Ins5.0Peer4.6Tech3.5Risk4.25.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.6
P/E (Fwd)22.6
Mkt Cap$521.9B
EV/EBITDA23.7
Profit Mgn25.3%
ROE57.6%
Rev Growth21.7%
Beta1.54
Dividend1.10%
Rating analysts52

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.37bearish
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$105-42.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle-vendor hardware/cloud components
    10-K Item 1A: 'there are some technologies and components that can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, availability or other business constraints'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Hilary Maxson appointed as Chief Financial Officer of Oracle effective April 6, 2026. Successor named; previously EVP and Group CFO at Schneider Electric SE from 2020 to April 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.2
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.6
Support Resistance
4.8
Bollinger
5.2
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $160.33Resistance $200.71

Price Targets

$169
$223
A.Upside+22.8%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-10 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORCL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $181.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $168.76. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the ORCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $223.32 (+23.1% upside). Prior stop was $168.76. Stop-loss: $168.76.

What are the risks of investing in ORCL?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is ORCL overvalued or undervalued?

Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 32.6 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ORCL?

52 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $243.

What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise IT solutions globally through cloud and license (Oracle Cloud Applications and Oracle Cloud...

Oracle provides enterprise IT solutions globally through cloud and license (Oracle Cloud Applications and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure), hardware, and services segments. Revenue spans cloud subscriptions (43% of FY2025 total), perpetual licenses, license support, hardware, and professional services to businesses, governments, and institutions worldwide.

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