Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $137.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: infrastructure cloud services and license support revenue (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for certain technologies and components.
Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure technology delivered via cloud, on-premise, and hybrid deployment models, spanning Oracle Cloud Applications (ERP, HCM, SCM), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (compute, storage, database, AI), and hardware/services... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $137.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: infrastructure cloud services and license support revenue (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for certain technologies and components. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle's cloud services revenue grew to 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal 2024 and 32% in fiscal 2023, as customers with existing license support contracts who migrated to the Oracle Cloud contributed $4.3 billion to annualized cloud services revenue growth over the past three fiscal years. Within combined cloud services and license support revenue, infrastructure offerings (Oracle Database, OCI, Java, middleware) represented 56% versus 44% for applications (Fusion ERP, HCM, NetSuite), and Oracle invested $9.9 billion in research and development in fiscal 2025.
Oracle earns revenue through three businesses: cloud and license (Oracle Cloud Applications and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, sold via subscription or as licenses with optional support contracts), hardware (Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, and storage, generally paired with hardware support contracts), and services (implementation and consulting). Customers can deploy Oracle technology on-premise, in the Oracle Cloud, or in hybrid configurations such as Oracle Exadata Cloud@Customer, and OCI's multicloud partnerships let customers combine Oracle infrastructure with Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud. License support and hardware support fees are generally priced as a percentage of net license and hardware fees, respectively, creating a recurring renewal-based revenue stream layered on top of upfront license and hardware sales. Oracle also depends on third-party data center operators under long-term lease commitments and on suppliers of chips and other infrastructure components to expand OCI capacity, entering multi-year commitments that carry termination fees if capacity is overestimated.
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Oracle discloses that some technologies and components used in its hardware and cloud infrastructure can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, or availability constraints, and that competitive supply capacity for AI accelerators such as graphics processing units has at times forced Oracle to accept less favorable supplier terms to secure capacity. That trade-off has increased the excess-and-obsolescence risk carried on Oracle's hardware balance sheet, and sits alongside long-term data center lease commitments that carry significant termination fees if Oracle's cloud demand forecasts turn out to be too aggressive — a bet embedded in Oracle's capacity buildout rather than a purely external supply-chain risk.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-09-25T20:52:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductcloud services revenue43%10-K Item 1: 'our cloud services revenues represented 43%, 37% and 32% of our total revenues during fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- HIGHProductinfrastructure cloud services and license support revenue56%10-K Item 1: 'Our infrastructure cloud services and license support revenues represented 56%, 54% and 53% of our total cloud services and license support revenues during fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle vendor for certain technologies and components10-K Item 1A: 'there are some technologies and components that can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, availability or other business constraints.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWBoard elected Tomislav Mihaljevic as a director effective May 6, 2026; no committee assignment yet. Standard non-employee director RSU and cash compensation; no prior arrangement noted.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUMHilary Maxson joined Oracle as Chief Financial Officer effective April 6, 2026, previously EVP and Group CFO of Schneider Electric SE (2020-2026). No prior arrangement or related-party transactions noted.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $137.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: infrastructure cloud services and license support revenue (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for certain technologies and components. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $129.48. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $218.94 (+59.7% upside). Prior stop was $129.48. Stop-loss: $129.48.
Concentration risk — Product: infrastructure cloud services and license support revenue (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for certain technologies and components; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
49 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $238.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure technology delivered via cloud, on-premise, and hybrid...
Oracle provides enterprise applications and infrastructure technology delivered via cloud, on-premise, and hybrid deployment models, spanning Oracle Cloud Applications (ERP, HCM, SCM), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (compute, storage, database, AI), and hardware/services businesses. Cloud services revenue grew to 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025 (from 32% in fiscal 2023), with infrastructure cloud and license-support revenue at 56% of that combined total.