Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $143.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor.
Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services — cloud applications (Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM, SCM), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, database and middleware software, and enterprise hardware — delivered through on-premise, cloud, and hybrid deployment models to businesses,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $143.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 19, MACD bearish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Cloud services made up 43% of Oracle's total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal 2024 and 32% in fiscal 2023, as customers with legacy license-support contracts kept migrating workloads to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA). Within cloud and license-support revenue, infrastructure offerings such as the Oracle Database and OCI contributed 56% versus 44% from applications like Fusion Cloud ERP and NetSuite, and Oracle invested $9.9 billion in research and development during fiscal 2025.
Oracle earns revenue through cloud subscriptions consumed ratably over contract terms, perpetual license and hardware sales recognized at delivery, and related support contracts that customers typically purchase alongside licenses and hardware. The company sells directly through its worldwide sales force and indirectly through the Oracle Partner Network of resellers, system integrators, and independent software vendors, and its OCI multicloud services interoperate with competing platforms from Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud. Data center capacity is secured through long-term lease commitments with third-party providers, exposing Oracle to termination fees if it overestimates demand and to capacity shortages if it underestimates growth. Hardware production depends on outsourced manufacturing partners located mostly outside the U.S., and the 10-K discloses that certain technologies and components can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, or availability constraints.
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Oracle's cloud buildout leaves it exposed to a supply chain it does not fully control: the 10-K names political tension between China and Taiwan alongside industry-wide shortages of AI accelerators and graphics processing units as factors that have forced Oracle to accept less favorable supplier terms just to secure infrastructure capacity, and it separately discloses that certain hardware technologies and components are available from only a single vendor. That combination — sole-sourced inputs layered on top of a GPU market already running short — means a disruption at one supplier could constrain OCI capacity growth faster than Oracle could requalify an alternate source.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle vendor10-K Item 1A: 'there are some technologies and components that can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, availability or other business constraints'
- MEDIUMProductcloud services revenue43%10-K Item 1: 'our cloud services revenues represented 43%, 37% and 32% of our total revenues during fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWBoard elected Tomislav Mihaljevic as director effective May 6, 2026. No committee assignment at this time; standard non-employee director RSU grant to follow. No related-party transactions disclosed.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUMHilary Maxson named Oracle CFO effective April 6, 2026, joining from Schneider Electric where she was EVP and Group CFO since 2020. No prior CFO departure or reason cited in the disclosed text.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $143.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 19, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $134.67. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $231.70 (+61.2% upside). Prior stop was $134.67. Stop-loss: $134.67.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
49 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $252.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services — cloud applications (Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM, SCM), Oracle...
Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services — cloud applications (Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM, SCM), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, database and middleware software, and enterprise hardware — delivered through on-premise, cloud, and hybrid deployment models to businesses, government agencies, and educational institutions worldwide. Cloud services revenue reached 43% of Oracle's total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 32% in fiscal 2023, reflecting migration of its installed base from on-premise licenses to the Oracle Cloud.