Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $130.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Oracle sells cloud services and license support, cloud license and on-premise license, hardware, and services, spanning applications and infrastructure technologies. Cloud services were 43% of fiscal 2025 total revenues, up from 32% in fiscal 2023, and infrastructure cloud... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $130.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle's cloud services revenue grew to 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 37% and 32% in the prior two years, as customers migrated on-premise license and support contracts to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA). Within cloud services and license support revenue, infrastructure offerings contributed 56% and applications offerings 44% in fiscal 2025. Oracle invested $9.9 billion in research and development that year, up from $8.9 billion in fiscal 2024.
Oracle earns revenue from cloud subscriptions (OCA applications like Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM and NetSuite, plus OCI infrastructure services such as compute, storage and Autonomous Database), traditional software license and support fees, and hardware sales and support for products like Oracle Engineered Systems. The company sells directly through its worldwide sales force and indirectly through the Oracle Partner Network, resellers, system integrators and independent software vendors. Oracle's OCI multicloud strategy lets customers combine its infrastructure with competitors' clouds, including Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, which the company acknowledges could as easily draw customers away from Oracle offerings as retain them. Certain cloud and hardware technologies and components can only be purchased from a single vendor, and Oracle has committed to long-term data center leases and supplier agreements, including for AI accelerators such as graphics processing units, sometimes on less favorable terms to secure capacity.
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Oracle's data center buildout creates a two-sided capacity bet: the company enters long-term lease commitments with third-party data center providers and suppliers of chips and infrastructure to meet expected cloud demand, and if it overestimates that demand it can be locked into multi-year space commitments that carry significant contract termination fees to exit early, while underestimating demand risks capacity shortages that push customers toward competitors. Oracle does not control the operation of these third-party data centers, which can suffer outages from events entirely outside its control, and it has already accepted less favorable supplier terms at times to secure scarce AI accelerator capacity -- a trade-off the 10-K says has increased excess-and-obsolescence risk on the hardware it holds.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-10-15T11:27:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWBoard elected Tomislav Mihaljevic as a director on May 6, 2026, with no committee seats named yet. Standard director RSU grant and cash compensation; no related-party transactions.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUMOracle announced Hilary Maxson, formerly Group CFO of Schneider Electric, joins as Chief Financial Officer on April 6, 2026. No related-party transactions reported.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $130.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $125.35. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $218.94 (+67.7% upside). Prior stop was $125.35. Stop-loss: $125.35.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
49 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $238.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle sells cloud services and license support, cloud license and on-premise license, hardware, and services, spanning...
Oracle sells cloud services and license support, cloud license and on-premise license, hardware, and services, spanning applications and infrastructure technologies. Cloud services were 43% of fiscal 2025 total revenues, up from 32% in fiscal 2023, and infrastructure cloud services and license support were 56% of cloud services and license support revenues.