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TWLOTwilio Inc.Buy Wait5.6·$209.31+0.01%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Twilio has achieved four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 28% and a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, converting 846% of net income into free cash flow, but the stock has exceeded analyst targets and is in a negative momentum phase with falling on-balance volume.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Piotroski Fcf ConversionStable
  • Four Quarter Beat StreakStable
  • Negative Momentum PhaseStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Wait for pullback to $197.93. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $209.31. Engine's entry $197.93 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Twilio provides communications APIs for Messaging, Voice, Email, and user authentication, plus a customer data platform (Segment), enabling businesses to build customer engagement applications. Revenue is primarily usage-based, with over 402,000 Active Customer Accounts as of... Read more

$209.31+16.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#51 of 110 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.77%
Entry $197.93(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $179.05Target $233.71(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$200.92-4.0%30 analysts
$233.71our TP
$209.31price
$200.92mean
$120
$300

Wait for pullback to $197.93. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $209.31. Engine's entry $197.93 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Twilio Inc.

About Twilio Inc.

Twilio's communications platform served over 402,000 Active Customer Accounts as of December 31, 2025, spanning businesses from small startups to large enterprises across a broad range of industries. The company employed 5,587 people globally, with 2,632 in research and development and 2,265 in sales and marketing. The majority of revenue is usage-based, derived from message volume, call minutes, and verification events across Messaging, Voice, and User Authentication and Identity products rather than fixed subscription commitments.

Twilio earns usage-based fees for Messaging, Voice, and authentication products and subscription fees for Email (SendGrid) and Segment. The go-to-market model has three motions: self-service targeting developers, direct sales targeting enterprises with complex needs, and a partner channel through ISVs and systems integrators. The Segment customer data platform targets enterprise marketing teams seeking to unify first-party data across channels for personalization, and is priced on subscription terms. Twilio's Super Network interconnects carrier infrastructure globally across over 30 currencies, providing routing and deliverability capabilities. The company faces competition from CPaaS vendors, regional telecom providers, and CRM or customer experience platforms. In 2025, Twilio had over 30,000 social impact customers using the platform through Twilio.org, reaching more than 803 million people.

Show full overview

Twilio's platform depends on access to carrier networks and the policies of mobile operating system providers. Apple's App Tracking Transparency framework, maintained since April 2021, and Google's planned changes to Android advertising identifiers have constrained the attribution and targeting signals that Twilio customers use for mobile acquisition campaigns. Beginning January 2024, Google required certain advertising publishers in the UK and EU to use a certified consent management platform, adding compliance friction for Twilio customers running cross-border campaigns. These rules reduce the marketing effectiveness of Twilio's messaging channels for some use cases and may weigh on customers' willingness to expand usage in those segments.

See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure

From Twilio Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)312.4
P/E (Fwd)31.5
Mkt Cap$31.8B
EV/EBITDA69.3
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE1.3%
Rev Growth20.0%
Beta1.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$100-52.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    Twilio appointed Doug Robinson as Class I director on March 24, 2026, effective immediately. Robinson also appointed to the Compensation and Talent Management Committee. Board expanded from nine to ten directors. No officer departure cited; no reason given beyond Nominating/Governance Committee recommendation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
3.0
Growth Rank
5.4
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEINSIDER 1.05%=HEAVYExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.2>=5.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $179.20Resistance $238.48

Price Targets

$179
$198
$234
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TWLO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $197.93. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $209.31. Engine's entry $197.93 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $233.71 (+11.7%), stop $179.05 (−16.9%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TWLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $233.71 (+16.9% upside). Target $233.71 (+11.7%), stop $179.05 (−16.9%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $179.05.

What are the risks of investing in TWLO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is TWLO overvalued or undervalued?

Twilio Inc. trades at a P/E of 312.4 (forward 31.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TWLO?

36 analysts cover TWLO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $201.

What does Twilio Inc. do?Twilio provides communications APIs for Messaging, Voice, Email, and user authentication, plus a customer data platform...

Twilio provides communications APIs for Messaging, Voice, Email, and user authentication, plus a customer data platform (Segment), enabling businesses to build customer engagement applications. Revenue is primarily usage-based, with over 402,000 Active Customer Accounts as of December 31, 2025, and 5,587 total employees.

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