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TWLOTwilio Inc.Sell5.2·$206.62-0.23%
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Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $206.62 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum.

Twilio provides communications APIs (Messaging, Voice, Email, authentication) and a customer data platform (Segment) to 402,000+ Active Customer Accounts globally as of December 2025. Revenue is primarily usage-based for communications and subscription-based for Email/Segment;... Read more

$206.62+13.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#56 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.80%
Stop $192.16Target $233.71(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$195.44-5.4%28 analysts
$233.71our TP
$206.62price
$195.44mean
$120
$250

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $206.62 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)313.8
P/E (Fwd)31.4
Mkt Cap$31.4B
EV/EBITDA68.6
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE1.3%
Rev Growth20.0%
Beta1.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$160-22.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    Doug Robinson appointed to Board of Directors effective March 24, 2026, as a Class I director through the 2026 Annual Meeting. Also appointed to Compensation and Talent Management Committee. Board expanded from nine to ten directors.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
2.4
Growth Rank
5.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $180.36Resistance $238.48

Price Targets

$192
$234
A.Upside+13.1%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.9% upside)
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TWLO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $206.62 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $192.16. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TWLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $233.71 (+13.1% upside). Prior stop was $192.16. Stop-loss: $192.16.

What are the risks of investing in TWLO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is TWLO overvalued or undervalued?

Twilio Inc. trades at a P/E of 313.8 (forward 31.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TWLO?

36 analysts cover TWLO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $195.

What does Twilio Inc. do?Twilio provides communications APIs (Messaging, Voice, Email, authentication) and a customer data platform (Segment) to...

Twilio provides communications APIs (Messaging, Voice, Email, authentication) and a customer data platform (Segment) to 402,000+ Active Customer Accounts globally as of December 2025. Revenue is primarily usage-based for communications and subscription-based for Email/Segment; the majority-usage model makes revenue sensitive to macroeconomic conditions affecting customer volumes.

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