Skip to main content

NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6295.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.5/10.

Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are primarily constructed on a pre-sold basis. To more fully serve customers of our homebuilding operations, we also operate a mortgage banking... Read more

$6295.11+13.6% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#10 of 16 Residential Construction
Stop $6009.30Target $7148.61(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$7070.00+12.3%6 analysts
$7148.61our TP
$6295.11price
$7070.00mean
$5664
$8096

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6295.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.5/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$17.0B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn12.5%
ROE33.3%
Rev Growth-21.4%
Beta1.07
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -21.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
2.5
Declining revenue: -21%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
8.8
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6195.15Resistance $7294.50

Price Targets

$6009
$7149
A.Upside+13.6%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.3% upside)
! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6295.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $6009.30. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7148.61 (+13.6% upside). Prior stop was $6009.30. Stop-loss: $6009.30.

What are the risks of investing in NVR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Weak growth.

Is NVR overvalued or undervalued?

NVR, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NVR?

12 analysts cover NVR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $7070.

What does NVR, Inc. do?Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings,...

Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are primarily constructed on a pre-sold basis. To more fully serve customers of our homebuilding operations, we also operate a mortgage banking and title services business. We conduct our homebuilding activities directly. Our mortgage banking operations are operated primarily through a wholly owned subsidiary, NVR Mortgage Finance, Inc. ("NVRM").

Related stocks: TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.) · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.) · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) · CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.)