NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. At $5773.52, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are primarily constructed on a pre-sold basis. To more fully serve customers of our homebuilding operations, we also operate a mortgage banking... Read more
Sell if holding. At $5773.52, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — NVR, Inc.
Latest news
- NVR slides 4.9% after Q1 profit and revenue drop sharply on weaker settlements and margin pressure - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NVR (NYSE:NVR) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q1 CY2026 Earnings - StockStory — StockStory negative
- BTIG cuts NVR stock price target on lower margin expectations - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NVR (NYSE: NVR) Q1 2026 earnings: net income down 34% on softer margins - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NVR stock slides after Q1 earnings disappoint (NVR:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha negative
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -21.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $5773.52, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.5%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $5413.52. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $6150.90 (+6.5% upside). Prior stop was $5413.52. Stop-loss: $5413.52.
Thin upside margin: 6.5%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
NVR, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.1 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover NVR with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $7070.
What does NVR, Inc. do?Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings,...
Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are primarily constructed on a pre-sold basis. To more fully serve customers of our homebuilding operations, we also operate a mortgage banking and title services business. We conduct our homebuilding activities directly. Our mortgage banking operations are operated primarily through a wholly owned subsidiary, NVR Mortgage Finance, Inc. ("NVRM").