Cavco Industries has sustained a solid earnings cadence — three of the last four quarters beat consensus — but the stock sits just 1% below its near-term resistance target with a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.14 to 1, leaving the setup deeply unfavorable for new entries. Customer and geographic concentration add structural fragility that makes the current price particularly uncomfortable given the limited upside.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Without Moat→Stable
- Customer Geographic Concentration→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 22, 2026· older than 90 days
Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. At $678.73, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%).
Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in Texas) and an independent dealer network across 48 states and Canada, operating 33 homebuilding production lines (31 U.S., 2 in Mexico). Revenue comes from... Read more
Sell if holding. At $678.73, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Cavco Industries, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cavco Industries stock rises 2% after beating Q2 estimates By Investing.com - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CVCO) Cavco Industries Posts Fiscal Q2 EPS $7.17, vs. FactSet Est of $5.52 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS CAVCO INDUSTRIES ($CVCO) Releases Q2 2027 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Cavco Industries stock rises 2% after beating Q2 estimates By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Cavco Industries stock rises 2% after beating Q2 estimates - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 29, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicTexas retail stores10-K Item 1A: 'of the 92 Company-owned retail stores, 57 are located in Texas'
- HIGHCustomerindependent distributors77%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our sales of factory-built homes were to independent distributors'
- HIGHcounterpartysingle assumed reinsurance entity10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our assumed reinsurance is with one entity'
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioTexas, Florida, Oklahoma, New Mexico loan collateral10-K Item 1: 'Our loan contracts are secured by factory-built homes located in 27 states, with the largest concentrations in Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, and New Mexico'
- MEDIUMGeographicTexas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada insurance markets10-K Item 1A: 'Standard Casualty ... primarily serving the Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada markets'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $678.73, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $631.22. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $631.27 reached (−7.0% from $678.73); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $631.22. Stop-loss: $631.22.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Cavco Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.8 (forward 22.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate CVCO, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $726.
What does Cavco Industries, Inc. do?Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in...
Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in Texas) and an independent dealer network across 48 states and Canada, operating 33 homebuilding production lines (31 U.S., 2 in Mexico). Revenue comes from manufactured and modular home sales supplemented by consumer finance (CountryPlace) and property/casualty insurance (Standard Casualty) subsidiaries.