Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the CVCO stock price target?

Entry $453.81, take-profit $499.38 (+10.1% upside). Target $499.38 (+7.8%), stop $412.55 (−12.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1.

Q: Is CVCO overvalued or undervalued?

Cavco Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Overall verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

Q: What do analysts say about CVCO?

8 analysts cover CVCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $588.

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 7 hr ago (May 20, 2026, 9:36 AM ET)

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $453.81. At $463.27 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $453.81 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity.

$463.27+10.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#2 of 16 Residential Construction

QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.10%

Entry $453.81(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $412.55Target $499.38(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.9:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1

Analyst target$587.50+26.8%2 analysts

$499.38our TP

$463.27price

$587.50mean

$600

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Cavco Industries, Inc.

Latest news

Cavco Industries (CVCO) Earnings Preview: EPS Seen at $5.30 on Housing Demand - Meyka — Meyka positive
Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) Stock Up 3.0% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 97/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Cavco Industries, Inc. Announces Release Date for Q4 and Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Report - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
Cavco Industries Inc stock (US1493701051): earnings date in focus as manufactured housing player pre - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS neutral
Cavco Industries: Declining Backlog And Challenging Market Conditions Worry Me (Downgrade) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha negative

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas

Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity

Thin upside margin: 7.7%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.2

P/E (Fwd)18.6

Mkt Cap$3.6B

EV/EBITDA13.5

Profit Mgn8.4%

ROE17.2%

Rev Growth11.3%

Beta1.31

DividendNone

Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral

IV61%elevated

Max Pain$980+111.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHGeographicTexas
10-K Item 1A: 'Our operations are concentrated in certain states, most notably Texas, California, Florida, Arizona, and Oregon... of the 80 Company-owned retail stores, 46 are located in Texas'
HIGHcounterpartysingle assumed reinsurance entity
10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our assumed reinsurance is with one entity'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.915%0.89

Quality5.315%0.79

Growth4.515%0.67

Momentum3.110%0.31

Sentiment6.110%0.61

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.210%0.52

Technical Setup6.25%0.31

Risk Profile5.25%0.26

Catalyst5.95%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)5.16

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

3.5

Obv

10.0

Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

35 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $443.33Resistance $546.90

Price Targets

$413

$454

$499

A.Upside+7.8%

A.R:R0.9:1

Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-21 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CVCO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $453.81. At $463.27 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $453.81 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $499.38 (+7.8%), stop $412.55 (−12.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the CVCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $499.38 (+10.1% upside). Target $499.38 (+7.8%), stop $412.55 (−12.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $412.55.

What are the risks of investing in CVCO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity; Thin upside margin: 7.7%.

Is CVCO overvalued or undervalued?

Cavco Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CVCO?

8 analysts cover CVCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $588.

What does Cavco Industries, Inc. do?Cavco Industries is one of the largest U.S. producers of manufactured homes, operating 31 homebuilding production lines...

Cavco Industries is one of the largest U.S. producers of manufactured homes, operating 31 homebuilding production lines in 29 states and Mexico, distributed through 80 company-owned retail stores (46 in Texas) and a network of independent distributors in 48 states. Revenue comes from wholesale home sales to independent distributors (79% of factory-built housing sales) and company-owned retail; financial services and insurance subsidiaries provide additional revenue. No independent distributor exceeded 10% of factory-built housing revenue.