Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. At $500.84, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas, California, Florida, Arizona, and Oregon.
Cavco Industries is one of the largest U.S. producers of manufactured homes, operating 31 production lines and distributing through 80 company-owned retail stores (46 in Texas) and independent distributors across 48 states. Revenue is primarily from factory-built home sales... Read more
Sell if holding. At $500.84, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas, California, Florida, Arizona, and Oregon. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerindependent distributors79%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 79% of our sales of factory-built homes were to independent distributors'
- HIGHGeographicTexas, California, Florida, Arizona, and Oregon10-K Item 1A: 'Our operations are concentrated in certain states, most notably Texas, California, Florida, Arizona, and Oregon'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $500.84, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas, California, Florida, Arizona, and Oregon. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $467.98. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $537.99 (+7.4% upside). Prior stop was $467.98. Stop-loss: $467.98.
Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas, California, Florida, Arizona, and Oregon; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Cavco Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover CVCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $588.
What does Cavco Industries, Inc. do?Cavco Industries is one of the largest U.S. producers of manufactured homes, operating 31 production lines and...
Cavco Industries is one of the largest U.S. producers of manufactured homes, operating 31 production lines and distributing through 80 company-owned retail stores (46 in Texas) and independent distributors across 48 states. Revenue is primarily from factory-built home sales (~79% to independent distributors), with ancillary consumer finance and insurance subsidiaries.