Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.61
NVR · Why this verdict
Why NVR (NVR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NVR Inc. is a homebuilder with an exceptional ROE of 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but is trading in a confirmed death cross downtrend with revenue declining 21% year-over-year and a weak growth score of 1.2/10, raising concerns about near-term demand.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite revenue headwinds, NVR beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent miss of 14.4% in April 2026 being the main exception, suggesting the company is effectively managing costs and margins. Earnings | EPS surprise remains above 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the earnings resilience continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA miss of negative 14.4% in the most recent quarter suggests the earnings beat streak is fragile, and if housing demand continues declining, the cost management advantage will not offset volume losses. | ||
NVR generates an ROE of 33% and scores as best-in-class on ROE and margins versus peers, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, demonstrating that its asset-light homebuilding model sustains superior capital returns even in challenging conditions. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 25% for the next 4 reporting quarters, confirming the business model continues to generate superior returns on capital. | →Stable |
| CounterROE is elevated partly due to low equity from share buybacks, which is a financial engineering effect rather than an underlying operational improvement, and can reverse if capital needs increase. | ||
Revenue declined 21% year-over-year, producing one of the lowest growth scores in the analysis at 1.2/10, indicating that demand for NVR's homes is falling materially in the current rate and affordability environment. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive above 5% year-over-year within 2 quarters, signaling demand recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declines in homebuilding often reflect completion timing and order backlog shifts rather than permanent demand destruction, and earnings beats in 3 of 4 quarters suggest margins are holding despite lower volume. | ||
The 200-day moving average slope is declining at negative 3.7% per month and the death cross is flagged as a hard block, confirming a structural long-term downtrend that creates a technical headwind for near-term price recovery. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe RSI of 65 and improving MACD suggest that within the longer downtrend a short-term recovery setup is forming, and the death cross may be near the end of its bearish phase rather than the beginning. | ||
Despite revenue headwinds, NVR beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent miss of 14.4% in April 2026 being the main exception, suggesting the company is effectively managing costs and margins.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains above 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the earnings resilience continues.
CounterA miss of negative 14.4% in the most recent quarter suggests the earnings beat streak is fragile, and if housing demand continues declining, the cost management advantage will not offset volume losses.
NVR generates an ROE of 33% and scores as best-in-class on ROE and margins versus peers, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, demonstrating that its asset-light homebuilding model sustains superior capital returns even in challenging conditions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE remains above 25% for the next 4 reporting quarters, confirming the business model continues to generate superior returns on capital.
CounterROE is elevated partly due to low equity from share buybacks, which is a financial engineering effect rather than an underlying operational improvement, and can reverse if capital needs increase.
Revenue declined 21% year-over-year, producing one of the lowest growth scores in the analysis at 1.2/10, indicating that demand for NVR's homes is falling materially in the current rate and affordability environment.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive above 5% year-over-year within 2 quarters, signaling demand recovery.
CounterRevenue declines in homebuilding often reflect completion timing and order backlog shifts rather than permanent demand destruction, and earnings beats in 3 of 4 quarters suggest margins are holding despite lower volume.
The 200-day moving average slope is declining at negative 3.7% per month and the death cross is flagged as a hard block, confirming a structural long-term downtrend that creates a technical headwind for near-term price recovery.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
CounterThe RSI of 65 and improving MACD suggest that within the longer downtrend a short-term recovery setup is forming, and the death cross may be near the end of its bearish phase rather than the beginning.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -21%
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $73,694 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.96
Upside
-5.6%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.2, Momentum at 1.5, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.96 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Roe And Balance Sheet
Trip ifROE falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue Decline Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope remains at more than negative 3% per month for 6 or more consecutive months.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak Resilience
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.