Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 1.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.1x
- ▸PEG: 6.40
NVR · Why this verdict
Why NVR (NVR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite revenue headwinds, NVR beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent miss of 14.4% in April 2026 being the main exception, suggesting the company is effectively managing costs and margins. Earnings | EPS surprise remains above 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the earnings resilience continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA miss of negative 14.4% in the most recent quarter suggests the earnings beat streak is fragile, and if housing demand continues declining, the cost management advantage will not offset volume losses. | ||
NVR generates an ROE of 33% and scores as best-in-class on ROE and margins versus peers, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, demonstrating that its asset-light homebuilding model sustains superior capital returns even in challenging conditions. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 25% for the next 4 reporting quarters, confirming the business model continues to generate superior returns on capital. | →Stable |
| CounterROE is elevated partly due to low equity from share buybacks, which is a financial engineering effect rather than an underlying operational improvement, and can reverse if capital needs increase. | ||
Revenue declined 21% year-over-year, producing one of the lowest growth scores in the analysis at 1.2/10, indicating that demand for NVR's homes is falling materially in the current rate and affordability environment. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive above 5% year-over-year within 2 quarters, signaling demand recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declines in homebuilding often reflect completion timing and order backlog shifts rather than permanent demand destruction, and earnings beats in 3 of 4 quarters suggest margins are holding despite lower volume. | ||
The 200-day moving average slope is declining at negative 3.7% per month and the death cross is flagged as a hard block, confirming a structural long-term downtrend that creates a technical headwind for near-term price recovery. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe RSI of 65 and improving MACD suggest that within the longer downtrend a short-term recovery setup is forming, and the death cross may be near the end of its bearish phase rather than the beginning. | ||
Despite revenue headwinds, NVR beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent miss of 14.4% in April 2026 being the main exception, suggesting the company is effectively managing costs and margins.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains above 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the earnings resilience continues.
CounterA miss of negative 14.4% in the most recent quarter suggests the earnings beat streak is fragile, and if housing demand continues declining, the cost management advantage will not offset volume losses.
NVR generates an ROE of 33% and scores as best-in-class on ROE and margins versus peers, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, demonstrating that its asset-light homebuilding model sustains superior capital returns even in challenging conditions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE remains above 25% for the next 4 reporting quarters, confirming the business model continues to generate superior returns on capital.
CounterROE is elevated partly due to low equity from share buybacks, which is a financial engineering effect rather than an underlying operational improvement, and can reverse if capital needs increase.
Revenue declined 21% year-over-year, producing one of the lowest growth scores in the analysis at 1.2/10, indicating that demand for NVR's homes is falling materially in the current rate and affordability environment.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive above 5% year-over-year within 2 quarters, signaling demand recovery.
CounterRevenue declines in homebuilding often reflect completion timing and order backlog shifts rather than permanent demand destruction, and earnings beats in 3 of 4 quarters suggest margins are holding despite lower volume.
The 200-day moving average slope is declining at negative 3.7% per month and the death cross is flagged as a hard block, confirming a structural long-term downtrend that creates a technical headwind for near-term price recovery.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
CounterThe RSI of 65 and improving MACD suggest that within the longer downtrend a short-term recovery setup is forming, and the death cross may be near the end of its bearish phase rather than the beginning.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NVR Inc. is a homebuilder with an exceptional ROE of 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but is trading in a confirmed death cross downtrend with revenue declining 21% year-over-year and a weak growth score of 1.2/10, raising concerns about near-term demand.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -21%
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $73,694 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.85
Upside
-8.1%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 17d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.85 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9, Quality at 6.6, and Value at 5.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.2, Peer rank at 3.1, and Technical at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Roe And Balance Sheet
Trip ifROE falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue Decline Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope remains at more than negative 3% per month for 6 or more consecutive months.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak Resilience
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.