PulteGroup trades at an attractive forward P/E of 11.0x with 3 of 4 recent earnings beats, but is trapped in a death cross technical pattern with revenue declining 12% and a weak overall score of 4.6, making new entry unattractive at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Floor→Stable
- Revenue Decline Growth Concern→Stable
- Death Cross Hard Block↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $109.35 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."),... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $109.35 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — PulteGroup, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PulteGroup (PHM) Posted Weaker Q2 Earnings, Is The Stock Still Undervalued? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS America's Housing Market Is Cooling, But PulteGroup Just Beat Anyway - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS PulteGroup second quarter earnings fall to $2.48 per share - grafa.com — grafa.com negative
- NEWS PulteGroup (PHM) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PulteGroup shares decline despite second-quarter earnings beat (NYSE:PHM) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-15T11:52:21Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -9.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $109.35 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $103.95. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $123.41 (+12.9% upside). Prior stop was $103.95. Stop-loss: $103.95.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
PulteGroup, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover PHM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $137.
What does PulteGroup, Inc. do?PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder,...
PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."), and our common shares are included in the S&P 500 Index and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "PHM".