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PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. At $111.78, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."),... Read more

$111.78+7.0% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#8 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.97%
IncomeYield0.93%(5y avg 0.92%)Payout9.28%sustainable
Stop $105.97Target $119.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$137.50+23.0%14 analysts
$119.62our TP
$111.78price
$137.50mean
$100
$162

Sell if holding. At $111.78, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — PulteGroup, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.0%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.8
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$21.3B
EV/EBITDA7.5
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth-12.4%
Beta1.24
Dividend0.93%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$70-37.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -12.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -12%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.3
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
3.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
4.4
Growth Rank
4.4
Quality Rank
6.9
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $109.25Resistance $133.13

Price Targets

$106
$120
A.Upside+7.0%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PHM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $111.78, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $105.97. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the PHM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.62 (+7.0% upside). Prior stop was $105.97. Stop-loss: $105.97.

What are the risks of investing in PHM?

Thin upside margin: 7.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is PHM overvalued or undervalued?

PulteGroup, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PHM?

23 analysts cover PHM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $138.

What does PulteGroup, Inc. do?PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder,...

PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."), and our common shares are included in the S&P 500 Index and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "PHM".

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