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PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."),... Read more

$122.55+6.4% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#12 of 16 Residential Construction
Stop $114.73Target $130.47(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$137.50+12.2%14 analysts
$130.47our TP
$122.55price
$137.50mean
$100
$162

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.4/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$23.0B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth-12.4%
Beta1.34
Dividend0.86%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.10bearish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$85-30.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-09Item 5.02MEDIUM
    DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS** On February 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of PulteGroup, Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -12.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -12%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $113.73Resistance $133.13

Price Targets

$115
$130
A.Upside+6.5%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.4% upside)
! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PHM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $114.73. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PHM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $130.47 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $114.73. Stop-loss: $114.73.

What are the risks of investing in PHM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.4/10.

Is PHM overvalued or undervalued?

PulteGroup, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PHM?

23 analysts cover PHM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $138.

What does PulteGroup, Inc. do?PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder,...

PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."), and our common shares are included in the S&P 500 Index and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "PHM".

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