Champion Homes has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and ranks as an industry growth leader in residential construction, but the stock has reached its analyst price target with only 0.3% remaining upside, carries a high debt-to-equity ratio of 9.2x, and recently posted its worst quarter with a miss of negative 17%, making new entry unattractive.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Delivery Mixed Recent Miss↓Deteriorating
- High Leverage Constrains Financial Flexibility↓Deteriorating
- Price At Target Near Zero Upside↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (75.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
Champion Homes, Inc. (formerly Skyline Champion Corporation) is a producer of factory-built housing in North America, reporting net sales of approximately $2.7 billion for the fiscal year ended March 28, 2026. The company operates 46 manufacturing facilities across 20 U.S.... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (75.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Champion Homes, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS SKYQ Stock Rips As Sky Quarry Starts Nevada Refinery Production - StocksToTrade — StocksToTrade positive
- NEWS Champion Homes (NYSE:SKY) Raised to Hold at Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Champion Homes, Inc. (NYSE:SKY) Given Consensus Rating of "Moderate Buy" by Analysts - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Bank of New York Mellon Corp Reduces Stock Holdings in Champion Homes, Inc. $SKY - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Champion Homes Inc (SKY) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-10-16T11:42:17Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerindependent distributors75%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 75% of our shipments of homes in fiscal 2026 were made to independent customers throughout the U.S. and western Canada.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-03Item 5.02MEDIUMEVP Operations Joseph Kimmell will retire effective June 26, 2026, with a consulting agreement through August 31, 2026 for transition and one-third RSU vesting at its conclusion; the board also appointed Wade Lyall as Chief Sales Officer, John Kastanek as Chief Customer Experience Officer, and Andrew Houser as SVP Manufacturing, effective June 2, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUMTawn Kelley resigned as Board Chair and director effective May 31, 2026, with no disagreement over company operations, policies, or practices cited; the board appointed Michael Berman as Chair and Gary Robinette as Chair of the Nominating and Governance Committee, and reduced board size to six directors.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (75.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $74.34. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $90.05 (+12.6% upside). Prior stop was $74.34. Stop-loss: $74.34.
Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (75.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Champion Homes, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.3 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover SKY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $104.
What does Champion Homes, Inc. do?Champion Homes, Inc. (formerly Skyline Champion Corporation) is a producer of factory-built housing in North America,...
Champion Homes, Inc. (formerly Skyline Champion Corporation) is a producer of factory-built housing in North America, reporting net sales of approximately $2.7 billion for the fiscal year ended March 28, 2026. The company operates 46 manufacturing facilities across 20 U.S. states and three Canadian provinces, holding the number-two position in U.S. manufactured housing and the number-one position among U.S. modular builders. Approximately 75% of fiscal 2026 home shipments were sold through independent distributors rather than Champion's own 84 company-owned retail sales centers.