Free cash flow conversion of 124% of net income and a prior streak of double-digit earnings beats frame a quality-leaning cyclical, but a confirmed death cross, declining revenue, and an unfavorable risk/reward setup make the current price level unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Revenue Decline And Product Concentration↑Improving
- Prior Beat Streak Broken By Large Miss↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Installed Building Products, In (IBP) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. At $184.40, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
IBP installs insulation and complementary building products from ~250 branch locations across all 48 continental states. Net revenue was $3.0 billion in 2025, with insulation comprising 58% of sales, serving residential and commercial construction customers. The company buys... Read more
Sell if holding. At $184.40, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Installed Building Products, In
About Installed Building Products, In
Insulation installation represented 58% of IBP's $3.0 billion in net revenue for fiscal 2025, down from 60% in both 2024 and 2023 as complementary products grew their share. The remaining revenue spans shower doors and closet shelving (7%), garage doors (6%), waterproofing (5%), rain gutters (4%), and fire-stopping and fireproofing products (4%), with distribution and manufacturing adding roughly 7%. IBP operates approximately 250 branch locations across all 48 continental states.
IBP earns revenue through service-based installation for production and custom homebuilders, multi-family developers, commercial contractors, and repair-and-remodel contractors. The business bypasses the traditional distribution chain — the company purchases insulation direct from four major manufacturers (Owens Corning, Knauf Insulation, CertainTeed, and Johns Manville), which the 10-K identifies as the four primary suppliers of fiberglass insulation in the U.S. This direct procurement relationship, built over more than two decades, provides preferred supply terms and reduces dependence on distributor mark-ups that smaller installers face. Installation employees are paid per completed job, creating a highly variable expense structure. Commercial construction contributed approximately 17% of revenues in 2025 — up from 11% in 2013 — providing partial offset during residential construction slowdowns, while multi-family demand provides a further buffer against single-family declines.
Show full overview
IBP's exposure to new residential construction makes financial performance sensitive to mortgage affordability cycles. Non-seasonally adjusted single-family housing starts fell 6.9% in 2025 versus 2024, and Fannie Mae's January 2026 forecast projects a further 3.7% decline to 1.31 million total starts. The company does not hedge fuel costs and holds no long-term supply agreements requiring fixed purchase volumes, so a sustained mortgage-rate driven housing downturn could weigh on both installation volumes and the company's ability to pass through material cost increases.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
From Installed Building Products, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-08Recent Developments — Installed Building Products, In
Latest news
- NEWS Installed Building Products Inc (IBP) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS A Look at Installed Building Products Inc (IBP) After 3.2% Decli - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Installed Building earnings ahead as housing headwinds persist By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria negative
- NEWS Installed Building earnings ahead as housing headwinds persist By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada negative
- NEWS Installed Building Products Q1 2026 earnings preview - MSN — MSN neutral
Generated 2026-10-08T11:37:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductinsulation installation58%10-K Item 1: 'Insulation installation comprised approximately 58%, 60% and 60% of our net revenue of $3.0 billion'
- MEDIUMSupplierpainted aluminum single supplier10-K Item 1: 'CAS purchases the majority of its finished painted aluminum from a single supplier'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $184.40, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $174.27. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $207.19 (+12.4% upside). Prior stop was $174.27. Stop-loss: $174.27.
Concentration risk — Product: insulation installation (58.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.
Installed Building Products, In trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover IBP with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $238.
What does Installed Building Products, In do?IBP installs insulation and complementary building products from ~250 branch locations across all 48 continental...
IBP installs insulation and complementary building products from ~250 branch locations across all 48 continental states. Net revenue was $3.0 billion in 2025, with insulation comprising 58% of sales, serving residential and commercial construction customers. The company buys direct from major manufacturers including Owens Corning, Knauf, CertainTeed, and Johns Manville, bypassing distributors.