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Installed Building Products, In (IBP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $287.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: new residential housing market.

Installed Building Products installs insulation and complementary building products from approximately 250 branch locations across all 48 continental US states, with $3.0 billion in 2025 net revenue. Business is primarily driven by the new residential housing market, with... Read more

$287.70+10.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#5 of 16 Residential Construction
Stop $267.18Target $316.50(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$289.25+0.5%12 analysts
$316.50our TP
$287.70price
$289.25mean
$250
$331

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $287.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: new residential housing market. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: new residential housing market
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.3
P/E (Fwd)23.6
Mkt Cap$7.7B
EV/EBITDA16.7
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE37.5%
Rev Growth-0.4%
Beta1.99
Dividend1.16%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$170-40.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomernew residential housing market
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of revenue from our business comes from the installation of building products in the new residential housing market.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
7.5
Quality Rank
7.8
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $259.52Resistance $322.96

Price Targets

$267
$317
A.Upside+10.0%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.4% upside)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $287.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: new residential housing market. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $267.18. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IBP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $316.50 (+10.2% upside). Prior stop was $267.18. Stop-loss: $267.18.

What are the risks of investing in IBP?

Concentration risk — Customer: new residential housing market; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is IBP overvalued or undervalued?

Installed Building Products, In trades at a P/E of 29.3 (forward 23.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IBP?

21 analysts cover IBP with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $289.

What does Installed Building Products, In do?Installed Building Products installs insulation and complementary building products from approximately 250 branch...

Installed Building Products installs insulation and complementary building products from approximately 250 branch locations across all 48 continental US states, with $3.0 billion in 2025 net revenue. Business is primarily driven by the new residential housing market, with insulation comprising 58% of net revenue in 2025.

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