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IBPInstalled Building Products, InSell5.3·$200.22+1.32%
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Installed Building Products, In (IBP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.22 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution.

Installed Building Products is one of the nation's largest installers of insulation and complementary building products for residential and commercial construction, operating approximately 250 branch locations across all 48 continental states. Revenue of $3.0B in 2025 is derived... Read more

$200.22+1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#2 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.96%
IncomeYield1.68%(5y avg 1.05%)Payout35.26%sustainable
Stop $189.54Target $202.35(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$232.58+16.2%12 analysts
$202.35our TP
$200.22price
$232.58mean
$285

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.22 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)17.5
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn8.6%
ROE38.4%
Rev Growth-3.5%
Beta1.72
Dividend1.68%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.19bearish
IV69%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle aluminum supplier for CAS distribution
    10-K Item 1: 'CAS purchases the majority of its finished painted aluminum from a single supplier and is subject to fluctuations in the commodity pricing of aluminum'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -3.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.6
Earnings Growth
6.1
Declining revenue: -4%
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $195.40Resistance $224.93

Price Targets

$190
$202
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.22 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $189.54. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the IBP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $202.35 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $189.54. Stop-loss: $189.54.

What are the risks of investing in IBP?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is IBP overvalued or undervalued?

Installed Building Products, In trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IBP?

21 analysts cover IBP with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $233.

What does Installed Building Products, In do?Installed Building Products is one of the nation's largest installers of insulation and complementary building products...

Installed Building Products is one of the nation's largest installers of insulation and complementary building products for residential and commercial construction, operating approximately 250 branch locations across all 48 continental states. Revenue of $3.0B in 2025 is derived primarily from residential new construction insulation installation (58% of net revenue) and other complementary building products.

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