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Installed Building Products, In (IBP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $215.36 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution.

Installed Building Products is one of the nation's largest installers of insulation and complementary building products for residential and commercial construction, operating approximately 250 branch locations across all 48 continental states. Revenue of $3.0B in 2025 is derived... Read more

$215.36+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#2 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.47%
IncomeYield1.54%(5y avg 1.03%)Payout35.26%sustainable
Stop $200.28Target $216.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$249.17+15.7%12 analysts
$216.78our TP
$215.36price
$249.17mean
$200
$320

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $215.36 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.4Qual6.5Grw4.0Mom3.6Sent5.8Ins4.7Peer3.6Tech6.2Risk5.15.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Installed Building Products, In

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.0
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA13.3
Profit Mgn8.6%
ROE38.4%
Rev Growth-3.5%
Beta1.85
Dividend1.54%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.49bullish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$440+104.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle aluminum supplier for CAS distribution
    10-K Item 1: 'CAS purchases the majority of its finished painted aluminum from a single supplier and is subject to fluctuations in the commodity pricing of aluminum'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.9
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
6.9
Quality Rank
7.5
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $197.80Resistance $322.96

Price Targets

$200
$217
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $215.36 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $200.28. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the IBP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $216.78 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $200.28. Stop-loss: $200.28.

What are the risks of investing in IBP?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single aluminum supplier for CAS distribution; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is IBP overvalued or undervalued?

Installed Building Products, In trades at a P/E of 23.0 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IBP?

21 analysts cover IBP with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $249.

What does Installed Building Products, In do?Installed Building Products is one of the nation's largest installers of insulation and complementary building products...

Installed Building Products is one of the nation's largest installers of insulation and complementary building products for residential and commercial construction, operating approximately 250 branch locations across all 48 continental states. Revenue of $3.0B in 2025 is derived primarily from residential new construction insulation installation (58% of net revenue) and other complementary building products.

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