An attractively valued residential homebuilder with three recent quarterly earnings beats trades just below its near-term technical ceiling with only 0.8% headroom remaining—and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.15-to-1 in an unfavorable direction—while revenues are declining 5% year-over-year and free cash flow is converting at only 27% of net income, making the current price a poor entry point despite the sound fundamental valuation.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Fundamental Valuation↓Deteriorating
- Declining Revenue Growth Headwind↓Deteriorating
- Price At Technical Ceiling↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
Green Brick Partners builds and sells homes through seven brands across Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, Atlanta, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market, also providing title, mortgage, and insurance services. Revenue comes from home closings at prices from the mid-$200s to... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and SEC filing concern. Suitability: aggressive.
About Green Brick Partners, Inc.
About Green Brick Partners, Inc.
Green Brick Partners builds homes through seven brands — Trophy, CB JENI, Normandy Homes, Southgate, Centre Living, The Providence Group, and GRBK GHO — across Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, Atlanta, and the Treasure Coast, Florida, with 101 active selling communities and a December 31, 2025 backlog of 520 units valued at $354 million. Lot inventory totaled 48,828 owned or under contract at year-end, with 75.8% owned outright. The company employed approximately 620 full-time employees.
Green Brick earns revenue from home closings across price bands ranging from the mid-$200s under the Trophy entry-level brand to over $2.8 million under GRBK GHO on the Treasure Coast. The company acts solely as a general contractor, coordinating independent subcontractors for all construction work rather than employing field labor directly. Land is predominantly self-developed — the company targets delivering finished lots to builder subsidiaries within 12 to 24 months of acquisition — giving it control over entitlements, lot pipeline, and community design. Ancillary revenue flows from GRBK Mortgage, launched in 2024, along with Green Brick Title and Green Brick Insurance. The company targets a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 20%, sitting at 14.7% as of December 31, 2025.
Show full overview
Interest rate sensitivity and tariff-driven cost pressure define the principal downside risks in the 10-K. Higher mortgage rates reduce buyer purchasing power and activate financing contingencies in sales contracts, allowing buyers to cancel. The Trump administration's 35% tariff on softwood lumber imports from Canada could increase construction costs that Green Brick may not fully offset through higher home prices in a demand-constrained market. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that it would restate revenue for 2023, 2024, and 2025, after finding that interest-rate buy-down closing cost incentives — tools used to help buyers afford financing — had been incorrectly excluded from the gross revenue line.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
From Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Green Brick Partners, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS GREEN BRICK PARTNERS ($GRBK) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Green Brick Partners Reports Q3 Earnings of $1.35 per Share on $448.2 Million Revenue, Missing Analyst Estimates - GuruF — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Form 8K Green Brick Partners Inc For: 28 October By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Green Brick Partners: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Green Brick Partners Inc earnings missed by $0.11, revenue fell short of estimates - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 28, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicfour core markets10-K Item 1A: 'We currently operate in only four core markets and, outside of DFW, our operations are typically concentrated in a limited number of communities within those markets.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 4.02HIGHAudit Committee concluded FY2023-2025 residential revenue was incorrectly reported gross, excluding interest-rate buy-downs. Restatements required for three annual filings and Q1-Q3 2025 quarterly periods.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -8.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.51 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $61.85. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $52.70 reached (−20.8% from $66.51); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $61.85. Stop-loss: $61.85.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Green Brick Partners, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts rate GRBK, with a consensus score of 2.4/5. 1 analysts publish price targets averaging $62.
What does Green Brick Partners, Inc. do?Green Brick Partners builds and sells homes through seven brands across Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, Atlanta,...
Green Brick Partners builds and sells homes through seven brands across Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, Atlanta, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market, also providing title, mortgage, and insurance services. Revenue comes from home closings at prices from the mid-$200s to over $2.8 million, with 48,828 lots owned or under contract and approximately 620 full-time employees as of December 31, 2025.