Vail Resorts faces a perfect 4-quarter earnings miss streak and revenues declining -7% year-over-year, with 34% of its float sold short, while its business is heavily concentrated in mountain resort operations and season pass products, creating a challenging near-term outlook.
Thesis pillars
- Mountain Passproduct Concentration↑Improving
- Perfect Earnings Miss Streak↑Improving
- High Short Interest Squeeze Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).
Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas across North America, Australia and Switzerland, plus lodging and real estate. Mountain was about 89% of Fiscal 2025 net revenue, earned from lift tickets and pass products, ski school, dining and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Vail Resorts, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Unlocking Q4 Potential of Vail Resorts (MTN): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Unlocking Q4 Potential of Vail Resorts (MTN): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com neutral
- NEWS MTN Looks 23.8% Undervalued on GF Value™ - gurufocus.com — gurufocus.com positive
- NEWS Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 2026 Preview. EPS Est. $9.05; Reports on June 8 - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet neutral
- NEWS What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:42:23Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $139.71. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $171.87 (-13.6% upside). Prior stop was $139.71. Stop-loss: $139.71.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.3 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $148.
What does Vail Resorts, Inc. do?Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas across North America, Australia and...
Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas across North America, Australia and Switzerland, plus lodging and real estate. Mountain was about 89% of Fiscal 2025 net revenue, earned from lift tickets and pass products, ski school, dining and rentals. Pass products were about 65% of lift revenue.