Vail Resorts faces a perfect 4-quarter earnings miss streak and revenues declining -7% year-over-year, with 34% of its float sold short, while its business is heavily concentrated in mountain resort operations and season pass products, creating a challenging near-term outlook.
Thesis pillars
- Mountain Passproduct Concentration↑Improving
- Perfect Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- High Short Interest Squeeze Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Wait for pullback to $131.20. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $136.11. Engine's entry $131.20 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (89.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (lift revenue) (65.0%).
Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and ski areas across North America, Australia, and Switzerland in Mountain (89% of Fiscal 2025 net revenue), Lodging (11%), and Real Estate segments. The company generates revenue through lift tickets, pass products, ski... Read more
Wait for pullback to $131.20. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $136.11. Engine's entry $131.20 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (89.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (lift revenue) (65.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Vail Resorts, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Unlocking Q4 Potential of Vail Resorts (MTN): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Unlocking Q4 Potential of Vail Resorts (MTN): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com neutral
- NEWS MTN Looks 23.8% Undervalued on GF Value™ - gurufocus.com — gurufocus.com positive
- NEWS Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 2026 Preview. EPS Est. $9.05; Reports on June 8 - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet neutral
- NEWS What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T23:46:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductMountain segment89%10-K Item 1: 'Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate, which represented approximately 89%, 11% and 0%, respectively, of our net revenue for our fiscal year ended July 31, 2025'
- HIGHProductpass products (lift revenue)65%10-K Item 1: 'our pass products generated approximately 65% of our total lift revenue and approximately 75% of total visitation (excluding complimentary access)'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $131.20. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $136.11. Engine's entry $131.20 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (89.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (lift revenue) (65.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $142.63 (+4.8%), stop $122.08 (−11.5%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $142.63 (-7.5% upside). Target $142.63 (+4.8%), stop $122.08 (−11.5%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $122.08.
Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (89.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (lift revenue) (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.7 (forward 22.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
19 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $145.
What does Vail Resorts, Inc. do?Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and ski areas across North America, Australia, and Switzerland in...
Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and ski areas across North America, Australia, and Switzerland in Mountain (89% of Fiscal 2025 net revenue), Lodging (11%), and Real Estate segments. The company generates revenue through lift tickets, pass products, ski school, dining, retail/rental, and lodging; pass products including the Epic Pass accounted for approximately 65% of total lift revenue in Fiscal 2025.