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Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $122.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Vail Resorts operates 42 mountain resorts and ski areas across the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Switzerland through Mountain (89% of net revenue) and Lodging (11%) segments. Revenue comes from lift tickets, ski and snowboard lessons, dining, retail/rental, and lodging; pass... Read more

$122.92+10.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.99%
IncomeYield7.31%(5y avg 2.23%)Payout141.40%at-risk
Stop $115.26Target $135.21(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$155.42+26.4%12 analysts
$135.21our TP
$122.92price
$155.42mean
$212

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $122.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Vail Resorts, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)17.4
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn7.9%
ROE34.6%
Rev Growth-4.7%
Beta0.71
Dividend7.31%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.3
Earnings Growth
4.2
Declining revenue: -5%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 731.0%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.5
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
5.9
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $118.51Resistance $136.28

Price Targets

$115
$135
A.Upside+10.0%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-08 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $122.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $115.26. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the MTN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.21 (+10.0% upside). Prior stop was $115.26. Stop-loss: $115.26.

What are the risks of investing in MTN?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is MTN overvalued or undervalued?

Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTN?

17 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $155.

What does Vail Resorts, Inc. do?Vail Resorts operates 42 mountain resorts and ski areas across the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Switzerland through...

Vail Resorts operates 42 mountain resorts and ski areas across the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Switzerland through Mountain (89% of net revenue) and Lodging (11%) segments. Revenue comes from lift tickets, ski and snowboard lessons, dining, retail/rental, and lodging; pass products generated 65% of lift revenue in Fiscal 2025 with ~15.4M North American skier visits.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited)