Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MTN stock price target?

Take-profit $135.21 (+10.7% upside). Prior stop was $114.95.

Q: What are the risks of investing in MTN?

Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum; Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum.

Q: Is MTN overvalued or undervalued?

Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about MTN?

17 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $155.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas worldwide in three segments: Mountain (89% of net revenue), Lodging (11%), and Real Estate. Pass products accounted for approximately 65% of total lift revenue in fiscal 2025 with ~82% of combined... Read more

$122.16+10.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 12 Resorts & Casinos

Stop $114.95Target $135.21(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1

Analyst target$155.42+27.2%12 analysts

$135.21our TP

$122.16price

$155.42mean

$212

Sell if holding. At $122.16, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Positive insider activity

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%)

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5

Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.5

P/E (Fwd)17.5

Mkt Cap$4.4B

EV/EBITDA9.3

Profit Mgn7.9%

ROE34.6%

Rev Growth-4.7%

Beta0.80

Dividend7.27%

Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.53bearish

IV53%elevated

Max Pain$220+80.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductpass products65%
10-K Item 1A: 'pass products (which for Fiscal 2025 accounted for approximately 65% of the total lift revenue)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.615%0.99

Quality6.015%0.90

Growth2.815%0.42

Momentum2.310%0.23

Sentiment6.810%0.68

Insider Activity7.010%0.70

Peer Rank4.010%0.40

Technical Setup7.25%0.36

Risk Profile4.25%0.21

Catalyst4.35%0.21

Overall (Σ contributions)5.11

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

4.5

Volume

5.1

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -4.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

1.3

Earnings Growth

4.2

Declining revenue: -5%

GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

40 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $118.51Resistance $136.28

Price Targets

$115

$135

A.Upside+10.7%

A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-04 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MTN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $122.16, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $114.95. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the MTN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.21 (+10.7% upside). Prior stop was $114.95. Stop-loss: $114.95.

What are the risks of investing in MTN?

Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is MTN overvalued or undervalued?

Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTN?

17 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $155.

What does Vail Resorts, Inc. do?Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas worldwide in three segments: Mountain (89%...