Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.68
MTN · Why this verdict
Why Vail Resorts (MTN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vail Resorts faces a perfect 4-quarter earnings miss streak and revenues declining -7% year-over-year, with 34% of its float sold short, while its business is heavily concentrated in mountain resort operations and season pass products, creating a challenging near-term outlook.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Approximately 89% of revenue comes from the mountain segment and 65% is derived from season pass products (lift revenue), meaning the company's entire financial profile depends on weather conditions, discretionary consumer spending, and pass renewal rates. Bear case | Season pass sales for the upcoming ski season exceed the prior year by at least 3% as disclosed in pre-season announcements. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh concentration in pass products also provides revenue stability since passes are sold months in advance, providing early visibility into the coming season's revenue regardless of actual snowfall during the winter. | ||
Vail Resorts has missed earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of -3.7%, including the most recent miss of -1.62% in June 2026, indicating persistent management guidance credibility issues. Earnings | The company beats at least 1 of the next 4 quarterly estimates, breaking the miss streak before the September 2026 reporting date. | →Stable |
| CounterThe misses have been relatively small in magnitude (average -3.7%), suggesting the business is operating close to expectations and any improvement in weather conditions or pass sales could flip results to a modest beat. | ||
Short interest is at 34% of the float, one of the highest readings in the universe, creating a meaningful short squeeze risk if any positive catalyst emerges, while simultaneously reflecting a broad bearish consensus on the stock's near-term direction. Risk breakdown | Short interest declines below 25% within 6 months as shorts take profits or fundamentals improve, reducing the pressure on the stock. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 34% short interest with a quality score of 7.5 against that short position suggests knowledgeable investors are betting on continued deterioration, and high short interest alone does not guarantee a squeeze without a fundamental catalyst to force covering. | ||
Revenue is declining -7% year-over-year with growth scoring only 5.1/10, and the dividend payout ratio is 661% of earnings, suggesting the current dividend level is unsustainable if revenue weakness persists, creating risk of a dividend cut that could pressure the stock. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth returns to at least flat (0%) year-over-year within 12 months and the company maintains its dividend without announcing a reduction. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 21.1x forward price-to-earnings ratio already prices in recovery expectations, and with the stock below its 200-day moving average and recovering technically, the market may be looking through the current revenue trough. | ||
Approximately 89% of revenue comes from the mountain segment and 65% is derived from season pass products (lift revenue), meaning the company's entire financial profile depends on weather conditions, discretionary consumer spending, and pass renewal rates.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Season pass sales for the upcoming ski season exceed the prior year by at least 3% as disclosed in pre-season announcements.
CounterHigh concentration in pass products also provides revenue stability since passes are sold months in advance, providing early visibility into the coming season's revenue regardless of actual snowfall during the winter.
Vail Resorts has missed earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of -3.7%, including the most recent miss of -1.62% in June 2026, indicating persistent management guidance credibility issues.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats at least 1 of the next 4 quarterly estimates, breaking the miss streak before the September 2026 reporting date.
CounterThe misses have been relatively small in magnitude (average -3.7%), suggesting the business is operating close to expectations and any improvement in weather conditions or pass sales could flip results to a modest beat.
Short interest is at 34% of the float, one of the highest readings in the universe, creating a meaningful short squeeze risk if any positive catalyst emerges, while simultaneously reflecting a broad bearish consensus on the stock's near-term direction.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 25% within 6 months as shorts take profits or fundamentals improve, reducing the pressure on the stock.
CounterA 34% short interest with a quality score of 7.5 against that short position suggests knowledgeable investors are betting on continued deterioration, and high short interest alone does not guarantee a squeeze without a fundamental catalyst to force covering.
Revenue is declining -7% year-over-year with growth scoring only 5.1/10, and the dividend payout ratio is 661% of earnings, suggesting the current dividend level is unsustainable if revenue weakness persists, creating risk of a dividend cut that could pressure the stock.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to at least flat (0%) year-over-year within 12 months and the company maintains its dividend without announcing a reduction.
CounterThe 21.1x forward price-to-earnings ratio already prices in recovery expectations, and with the stock below its 200-day moving average and recovering technically, the market may be looking through the current revenue trough.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 0.6 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 1.4 |
| news risk | 4.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 29% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Above max pain $70
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.31
Upside
-9.3%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.9B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 6.3 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 6.3, Value at 6.2, and Sentiment at 5.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.6, Catalyst at 3.5, and Momentum at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.31 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifActual EPS misses consensus estimate by more than 8% for the September 2026 quarterly report.
- P2High Short Interest Squeeze Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 40% of the float or remains above 30% for more than 6 consecutive months.
- P3Mountain Passproduct Concentration
Trip ifSeason pass sales for the upcoming ski season decline by more than 5% year-over-year as disclosed by management.
- P4Revenue Decline Valuation Pressure
Trip ifStock price drops below $124.99, the stop-loss level, on a closing basis.