Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.57
MTN · Why this verdict
Why Vail Resorts (MTN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.8 |
| EPS growth | 9.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 6.6 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 1.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 34% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Above max pain $80
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Dividend: 666.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:105d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.41
Upside
-3.9%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.41 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.5, Sentiment at 6.0, and Momentum at 5.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.2, Catalyst at 4.0, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.