Hilton Grand Vacations screens attractively valued at a forward P/E of 8.7x and a PEG of 0.04, with strong earnings growth potential and a recent beat reversing a prior miss streak, but below-average business quality, three prior consecutive quarters of earnings misses, 11% short interest, and high-severity counterparty concentration in its Hilton licensing relationship leave the risk/reward unfavorable at the current price.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss History Recent Recovery↑Improving
- Hilton License Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Compelling Valuation Discount↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.44: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Below long-term trend.
Hilton Grand Vacations develops, markets, sells, and manages timeshare resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand, with over 200 properties and more than 720,000 Club members globally at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from VOI sales (including fee-for-service... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.44: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 114d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-11-02Recent Developments — Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
- NEWS What To Expect From Hilton Grand Vacations’s (HGV) Q1 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Vodka-drinking HGV driver spotted 'swaying' between lanes on the M6 - Birmingham Live — Birmingham Live negative
Generated 2026-11-02T11:28:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida10-K Item 1: 'A significant number of our properties and VOIs are concentrated in Florida, Europe, Hawaii, South Carolina, California, Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia.'
- HIGHcounterpartyHilton license agreement10-K Item 1A: 'we are party to a license agreement with Hilton granting us the right to use the Hilton-branded trademarks, trade names and related intellectual property in our business'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWAt the 2026 Annual Meeting on May 6, 2026, stockholders approved an amendment to Hilton Grand Vacations' 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan adding 1,250,000 shares reserved for issuance. Director elections and other routine matters also approved.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOWOn March 16, 2026, director David W. Johnson resigned from Hilton Grand Vacations' Board of Directors effective immediately. No disagreement with Company operations cited. Board size reduced from ten to nine directors; no successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.44: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Prior stop was $35.75. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $42.95 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $35.75. Stop-loss: $35.75.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Hilton license agreement; Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0).
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover HGV with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $49.
What does Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. do?Hilton Grand Vacations develops, markets, sells, and manages timeshare resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand...
Hilton Grand Vacations develops, markets, sells, and manages timeshare resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand, with over 200 properties and more than 720,000 Club members globally at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from VOI sales (including fee-for-service commissions), consumer financing on a $4.3 billion receivables portfolio at a weighted average 14.7% interest rate, and resort management fees. Properties are significantly concentrated in Florida, Hawaii, and other leisure tourism markets.