Hilton Grand Vacations screens attractively valued at a forward P/E of 8.7x and a PEG of 0.04, with strong earnings growth potential and a recent beat reversing a prior miss streak, but below-average business quality, three prior consecutive quarters of earnings misses, 11% short interest, and high-severity counterparty concentration in its Hilton licensing relationship leave the risk/reward unfavorable at the current price.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss History Recent Recovery↓Deteriorating
- Hilton License Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Compelling Valuation Discount→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. At $48.89, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Hilton license agreement.
Hilton Grand Vacations develops, markets, sells, and manages timeshare resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand, with over 200 properties and more than 720,000 Club members globally at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from VOI sales (including fee-for-service... Read more
Sell if holding. At $48.89, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Hilton license agreement. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/8 gates (news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-25Recent Developments — Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS What To Expect From Hilton Grand Vacations’s (HGV) Q1 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Vodka-drinking HGV driver spotted 'swaying' between lanes on the M6 - Birmingham Live — Birmingham Live negative
- NEWS What To Expect From Hilton Grand Vacations’s (HGV) Q1 Earnings - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Assessing Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Valuation After Its US$500 Million Timeshare Loan Securitization - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS ASA bans misleading HGV training ads after complaint from J Coates Services - Motor Transport — Motor Transport negative
Generated 2026-07-25T18:02:23Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida10-K Item 1: 'A significant number of our properties and VOIs are concentrated in Florida, Europe, Hawaii, South Carolina, California, Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia.'
- HIGHcounterpartyHilton license agreement10-K Item 1A: 'we are party to a license agreement with Hilton granting us the right to use the Hilton-branded trademarks, trade names and related intellectual property in our business'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWAt the 2026 Annual Meeting on May 6, 2026, stockholders approved an amendment to Hilton Grand Vacations' 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan adding 1,250,000 shares reserved for issuance. Director elections and other routine matters also approved.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOWOn March 16, 2026, director David W. Johnson resigned from Hilton Grand Vacations' Board of Directors effective immediately. No disagreement with Company operations cited. Board size reduced from ten to nine directors; no successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $48.89, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Hilton license agreement. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $46.32. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $50.72 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $46.32. Stop-loss: $46.32.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Hilton license agreement; Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.3 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover HGV with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $58.
What does Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. do?Hilton Grand Vacations develops, markets, sells, and manages timeshare resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand...
Hilton Grand Vacations develops, markets, sells, and manages timeshare resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand, with over 200 properties and more than 720,000 Club members globally at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from VOI sales (including fee-for-service commissions), consumer financing on a $4.3 billion receivables portfolio at a weighted average 14.7% interest rate, and resort management fees. Properties are significantly concentrated in Florida, Hawaii, and other leisure tourism markets.