Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Wait for pullback to $40.30. At $46.30 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $40.30 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5.
Hilton Grand Vacations develops, sells, and operates timeshare properties under Hilton brands with over 200 properties and 720,000+ members across the U.S., Europe, Canada, Caribbean, Mexico, and Asia. Revenue comes from VOI sales, consumer financing interest, and resort... Read more
Wait for pullback to $40.30. At $46.30 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $40.30 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida, Europe, Hawaii10-K Item 1A: 'some of our properties being concentrated in certain geographic areas including Florida, Europe, Hawaii, South Carolina, California, Arizona, Virginia and Nevada'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOWDavid W. Johnson resigned from Board effective March 16, 2026. Not due to disagreement. Board reduced from 10 to 9 directors. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $40.30. At $46.30 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $40.30 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $47.94 (+3.5%), stop $38.09 (−21.6%), Setup A.R:R 3.5:1. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $47.94 (+19.0% upside). Target $47.94 (+3.5%), stop $38.09 (−21.6%), Setup A.R:R 3.5:1. Stop-loss: $38.09.
Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. trades at a P/E of 48.8 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
14 analysts cover HGV with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $55.
What does Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. do?Hilton Grand Vacations develops, sells, and operates timeshare properties under Hilton brands with over 200 properties...
Hilton Grand Vacations develops, sells, and operates timeshare properties under Hilton brands with over 200 properties and 720,000+ members across the U.S., Europe, Canada, Caribbean, Mexico, and Asia. Revenue comes from VOI sales, consumer financing interest, and resort management fees across two segments.