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MGM Resorts International (MGM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away).

MGM Resorts operates 16 domestic casino properties and two Macau casinos (via ~56% MGM China) across four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. Revenue is primarily gaming plus hotel and entertainment; most domestic real estate is... Read more

$40.07+2.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
Stop $36.65Target $40.12(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$42.67+6.5%18 analysts
$40.12our TP
$40.07price
$42.67mean
$30
$59

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.1% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.7
P/E (Fwd)17.0
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA17.1
Profit Mgn1.2%
ROE14.9%
Rev Growth6.0%
Beta1.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.55bearish
IV82%elevated
Max Pain$28-30.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicLas Vegas Strip
    10-K Item 1A: 'Because a significant number of our major gaming resorts are concentrated on the Las Vegas Strip, we are subject to greater risks than a gaming company that is more geographically diversified'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.32Resistance $40.94

Price Targets

$37
$40
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $36.65. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MGM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.12 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $36.65. Stop-loss: $36.65.

What are the risks of investing in MGM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 9.6): -1.5.

Is MGM overvalued or undervalued?

MGM Resorts International trades at a P/E of 51.7 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MGM?

31 analysts cover MGM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $43.

What does MGM Resorts International do?MGM Resorts operates 16 domestic casino properties and two Macau casinos (via ~56% MGM China) across four segments: Las...

MGM Resorts operates 16 domestic casino properties and two Macau casinos (via ~56% MGM China) across four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. Revenue is primarily gaming plus hotel and entertainment; most domestic real estate is leased under triple-net leases with 1.8B annual rent obligation.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co) · CZR (Caesars Entertainment, Inc.)