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MGM Resorts International (MGM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. At $37.00, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company operating 16 domestic casino resorts and two in Macau through its ~56% interest in MGM China, plus online gaming via LeoVegas and BetMGM. Revenue is earned from gaming, hotel, food and beverage,... Read more

$37.00+6.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#12 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.57%
Stop $35.27Target $39.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$44.00+18.9%19 analysts
$39.60our TP
$37.00price
$44.00mean
$33
$59

Sell if holding. At $37.00, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — MGM Resorts International

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.8%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)50.8
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$9.5B
EV/EBITDA17.4
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$29-21.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicLas Vegas Strip
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant number of our major gaming resorts are concentrated on the Las Vegas Strip'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.8
Revenue Growth
3.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.3
Value Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
3.6
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)INSIDER 0.38%=MODERATEMomentum 4.8>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.36Resistance $40.94

Price Targets

$35
$40
A.Upside+7.0%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $37.00, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $35.27. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the MGM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.60 (+6.8% upside). Prior stop was $35.27. Stop-loss: $35.27.

What are the risks of investing in MGM?

Thin upside margin: 6.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is MGM overvalued or undervalued?

MGM Resorts International trades at a P/E of 50.8 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MGM?

30 analysts cover MGM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $44.

What does MGM Resorts International do?MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company operating 16 domestic casino resorts and two in...

MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company operating 16 domestic casino resorts and two in Macau through its ~56% interest in MGM China, plus online gaming via LeoVegas and BetMGM. Revenue is earned from gaming, hotel, food and beverage, entertainment, and digital gaming; substantially all domestic real estate is leased under triple-net agreements at ~$1.8 billion of annual rent.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.)