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MDTMedtronic plc.Hold5.7·$83.67+0.58%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Medtronic has delivered four consecutive earnings beats on a foundation of near-perfect financial health metrics, but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend, options positioning signals unusual caution at a put/call ratio of roughly 5.7, and sole-source supplier dependencies represent a supply-chain vulnerability that limits conviction to add at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings DeliveryStable
  • Strong Financial Health ScoreStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Medtronic plc. (MDT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $83.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole suppliers; Thin upside margin: 5.9%.

Medtronic develops, manufactures, and markets device-based medical therapies across four segments — Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, Medical Surgical, and Diabetes — serving healthcare systems and physicians in more than 150 countries. The company sells products including cardiac... Read more

$83.67+5.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#20 of 62 Medical Devices
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.34%
IncomeYield3.46%(5y avg 3.00%)Payout76.14%
Stop $78.80Target $87.99(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$97.77+16.9%26 analysts
$87.99our TP
$83.67price
$97.77mean
$78
$121

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $83.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole suppliers; Thin upside margin: 5.9%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Medtronic plc.

About Medtronic plc.

Medtronic's four reportable segments — Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, Medical Surgical, and Diabetes — sell device-based therapies including the Micra leadless pacemaker, Evolut TAVR valves, and the MiniMed 780G insulin pump system to healthcare providers in more than 150 countries. The company employs over 95,000 full-time employees, with 44% based in the U.S. or Puerto Rico, and in May 2025 announced plans to separate the Diabetes Operating Unit into an independent, publicly traded company within 18 months.

Medtronic sells therapeutic and diagnostic devices directly to hospitals, physicians' offices, and ambulatory care centers, with revenue tied to reimbursement approval from healthcare insurers and national tender pricing in markets such as China. Manufacturing spans company-owned facilities worldwide, supplemented by third-party sterilization providers, and the company sources components, raw materials, and services — including some obtained from sole suppliers — from numerous vendors across multiple countries, exposing production to shortages such as the semiconductor and resin constraints noted in the filing. Growth also depends on maintaining working relationships with the healthcare professionals who research, market, and train on new devices, and on integrating acquired technologies without disrupting existing product lines.

Show full overview

Medtronic's supply chain carries concentrated single-source exposure: the 10-K discloses that certain components, raw materials, and services used to manufacture its devices are obtained from sole suppliers, and that several key products are sterilized at a single facility with constrained capacity and no readily available alternate site. Because sterilization and manufacturing facilities require lengthy regulatory approval before a replacement can come online, damage to or closure of one of these sites could halt production of the affected devices faster than a new supplier or sterilizer could be qualified — a risk the company treats as distinct from, and additive to, its broader raw-material cost exposure to resins and petroleum-based inputs.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Devices

From Medtronic plc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 18, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole suppliers
Thin upside margin: 5.9%
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.3
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$106.5B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn13.2%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta0.58
Dividend3.46%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.24bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$55-34.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersole suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'certain components, raw materials and services needed to manufacture our products are obtained from sole suppliers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
5.9
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $77.10Resistance $83.77

Price Targets

$79
$88
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-18 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $83.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole suppliers; Thin upside margin: 5.9%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $87.99 (+5.2%), stop $78.80 (−6.2%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MDT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $87.99 (+5.9% upside). Target $87.99 (+5.2%), stop $78.80 (−6.2%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $78.80.

What are the risks of investing in MDT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole suppliers; Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MDT overvalued or undervalued?

Medtronic plc. trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MDT?

37 analysts cover MDT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $98.

What does Medtronic plc. do?Medtronic develops, manufactures, and markets device-based medical therapies across four segments — Cardiovascular,...

Medtronic develops, manufactures, and markets device-based medical therapies across four segments — Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, Medical Surgical, and Diabetes — serving healthcare systems and physicians in more than 150 countries. The company sells products including cardiac devices, spinal and neurostimulation systems, surgical stapling and energy platforms, and the MiniMed insulin pump line, and in May 2025 announced its intent to separate the Diabetes business into an independent public company within 18 months.

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