Skip to main content

DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Wait for pullback to $57.85. At $66.34 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $57.85 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: CGM systems; Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or sole-source key suppliers.

DexCom designs and commercializes continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for diabetes management, with the G7, G7 15 Day, and Stelo (OTC) as current products. Sales of CGM systems are expected to account for substantially all product revenue; reimbursement comes from... Read more

$66.34+14.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#4 of 40 Medical Devices
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.09%
Entry $57.85(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $52.87Target $73.48(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$81.64+23.1%25 analysts
$73.48our TP
$66.34price
$81.64mean
$112

Wait for pullback to $57.85. At $66.34 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $57.85 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: CGM systems; Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or sole-source key suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.13, quality 8.4/10, growth 8.1/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — DexCom, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: CGM systems
Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or sole-source key suppliers
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.7
P/E (Fwd)21.9
Mkt Cap$25.8B
EV/EBITDA19.2
Profit Mgn19.3%
ROE35.6%
Rev Growth15.0%
Beta1.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.91bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$80+20.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductCGM systems
    10-K Item 1A: 'We expect that sales of our CGM systems will account for substantially all of our product revenue for the foreseeable future.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle- or sole-source key suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'our inability to obtain sufficient quantities of supplies timely and at appropriate quality levels from our single- or sole-source and other key suppliers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    Kevin Sayer (Executive Chairman) returned from temporary leave effective March 2, 2026, resuming duties. Letter Agreement signed. Mark Foletta resumed duties as Lead Independent Director upon Sayer's return. No departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
    Albert F. ('Rick') Osterloh IV appointed as new Board director effective February 26, 2026, also appointed to Compensation Committee and Technology Committee. No family relationship or related party transactions disclosed.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
4.8
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $56.72Resistance $67.75

Price Targets

$53
$58
$73
A.Upside+10.8%
A.R:R0.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DXCM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $57.85. At $66.34 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $57.85 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: CGM systems; Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or sole-source key suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.13, quality 8.4/10, growth 8.1/10). Target $73.48 (+10.8%), stop $52.87 (−25.5%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DXCM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.48 (+14.7% upside). Target $73.48 (+10.8%), stop $52.87 (−25.5%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $52.87.

What are the risks of investing in DXCM?

Concentration risk — Product: CGM systems; Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or sole-source key suppliers; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is DXCM overvalued or undervalued?

DexCom, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.7 (forward 21.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DXCM?

37 analysts cover DXCM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $82.

What does DexCom, Inc. do?DexCom designs and commercializes continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for diabetes management, with the G7, G7...

DexCom designs and commercializes continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for diabetes management, with the G7, G7 15 Day, and Stelo (OTC) as current products. Sales of CGM systems are expected to account for substantially all product revenue; reimbursement comes from Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurers for the G7 and G7 15 Day systems.

Related stocks: GMED (Globus Medical, Inc.) · PODD (Insulet Corporation) · BSX (Boston Scientific Corporation) · ZBH (Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.) · LIVN (LivaNova PLC)