Value
5.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.76
MDT · Why this verdict
Why Medtronic (MDT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Medtronic has delivered four consecutive earnings beats on a foundation of near-perfect financial health metrics, but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend, options positioning signals unusual caution at a put/call ratio of roughly 5.7, and sole-source supplier dependencies represent a supply-chain vulnerability that limits conviction to add at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Medtronic has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 2%, demonstrating consistent execution against analyst expectations across a full annual reporting cycle. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least six consecutive quarters, with the average earnings surprise remaining above 1% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe margin of outperformance has been narrow — the largest beat in the recent four-quarter run was under 4% — meaning any operational surprise or guidance miscalibration could snap the streak and undercut the narrative of dependable delivery. | ||
The company achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, reflecting broad-based improvement across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, a signal of sound near-term balance sheet strength. Quality | The Piotroski score remains at 8 or above over the next 12 months as margins and cash flow metrics hold steady. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores are built from backward-looking reported data; they do not capture forward-looking risks such as the sole-source supplier concentration flagged in annual filings, which could deteriorate fundamentals before the score reflects it. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average and that average is declining at nearly 2% per month, placing price action in a confirmed downtrend that historically precedes further consolidation. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive over the next 12 months and the stock reclaims that average on a sustained basis. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe MACD has been improving even while price remains below the moving average, suggesting the rate of decline is moderating; the confirmed downtrend may prove shorter-lived than the moving averages currently imply. | ||
Reliance on sole-source suppliers for key products, including facilities that have no alternate sterilization options, creates a single point of failure in manufacturing that could interrupt product supply without warning. Bear case | Annual filings over the next 12 months disclose meaningful progress toward qualifying alternate suppliers or establishing redundant sterilization pathways, reducing the number of sole-source concentration risks cited. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMedical device manufacturing requires rigorous regulatory review for any supplier change, meaning sole-source arrangements are common across the industry and may persist for years without causing a material production disruption. | ||
A put/call ratio of approximately 5.7 is sharply above normal levels, indicating that options market participants are building substantial downside protection far in excess of bullish bets — an unusual skew that adds a layer of technical caution to the setup. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio normalizes below 2.0 over the next 12 months as the downtrend resolves and market sentiment improves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can reflect large institutional holders hedging existing long positions rather than directional bearish conviction; the ratio alone is not predictive of near-term price direction. | ||
Medtronic has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 2%, demonstrating consistent execution against analyst expectations across a full annual reporting cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least six consecutive quarters, with the average earnings surprise remaining above 1% over the next 12 months.
CounterThe margin of outperformance has been narrow — the largest beat in the recent four-quarter run was under 4% — meaning any operational surprise or guidance miscalibration could snap the streak and undercut the narrative of dependable delivery.
The company achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, reflecting broad-based improvement across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, a signal of sound near-term balance sheet strength.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score remains at 8 or above over the next 12 months as margins and cash flow metrics hold steady.
CounterPiotroski scores are built from backward-looking reported data; they do not capture forward-looking risks such as the sole-source supplier concentration flagged in annual filings, which could deteriorate fundamentals before the score reflects it.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average and that average is declining at nearly 2% per month, placing price action in a confirmed downtrend that historically precedes further consolidation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive over the next 12 months and the stock reclaims that average on a sustained basis.
CounterThe MACD has been improving even while price remains below the moving average, suggesting the rate of decline is moderating; the confirmed downtrend may prove shorter-lived than the moving averages currently imply.
Reliance on sole-source suppliers for key products, including facilities that have no alternate sterilization options, creates a single point of failure in manufacturing that could interrupt product supply without warning.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Annual filings over the next 12 months disclose meaningful progress toward qualifying alternate suppliers or establishing redundant sterilization pathways, reducing the number of sole-source concentration risks cited.
CounterMedical device manufacturing requires rigorous regulatory review for any supplier change, meaning sole-source arrangements are common across the industry and may persist for years without causing a material production disruption.
A put/call ratio of approximately 5.7 is sharply above normal levels, indicating that options market participants are building substantial downside protection far in excess of bullish bets — an unusual skew that adds a layer of technical caution to the setup.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio normalizes below 2.0 over the next 12 months as the downtrend resolves and market sentiment improves.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can reflect large institutional holders hedging existing long positions rather than directional bearish conviction; the ratio alone is not predictive of near-term price direction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 9.1 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 6.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Rule of 40: 23 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 79 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $594,897 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 5.0 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.3>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.29
Upside
-3.2%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 19d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5. Top dim: Insider at 7.3; weakest: Technical at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.6, Value at 5.2, and Growth at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.29 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip if200-day moving average slope exceeds 0% per 30-day period for 2 consecutive months and stock closes above the 200-day moving average.
- P4Sole Source Supplier Vulnerability
Trip ifDisclosed sole-source supplier concentration risks for key products fall below 1 in the annual 10-K filing.
- P5Elevated Options Market Caution
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.