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MATVMativ Holdings, Inc.Sell5.6·$11.92
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Mativ has strung together a perfect earnings-beat streak and trades cheaply on a forward-P/E basis, but a 2.2x leverage ratio, a deeply overbought RSI reading, and a recent C-suite change temper the otherwise constructive picture.

Thesis pillars

  • Csuite Change And News Modifier Caution→Stable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Cheap Valuation Attractive Pe→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Mativ Holdings is a global specialty materials manufacturer operating two segments — Filtration & Advanced Materials (39% of 2025 revenue) and Sustainable & Adhesive Solutions (61%) — producing engineered nonwovens, films, tapes, liners and papers across 34 production locations... Read more

$11.92+49.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#23 of 44 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield27.81%
IncomeYield3.36%(5y avg 5.75%)Payout24.39%sustainable
Stop $11.36Target $17.85(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 7.7:1
Analyst target$21.00+76.2%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Mativ Holdings, Inc.

About Mativ Holdings, Inc.

Mativ Holdings generates approximately $2 billion in annual revenue across two segments — Sustainable & Adhesive Solutions at 61% and Filtration & Advanced Materials at 39% of 2025 sales — manufactured across 34 production locations on three continents and sold in over 100 countries. No product category exceeds 35% of total sales and no customer represents more than 10% of consolidated net sales, reflecting a deliberately diversified portfolio.

Mativ sells its FAM products mostly as direct components to system integrators and downstream manufacturers, while SAS products move through authorized distributors, converters, major retailers and direct channels. Input costs are exposed to commodity-grade resins such as polypropylene and polyethylene, which can correlate with crude oil prices, alongside wood pulp, synthetic fibers and specialty thermoplastic polyurethane that do not track oil pricing as closely. While most raw materials have multiple sourcing options, certain specialty resins, mercerized pulp and synthetic fibers are supplied by fewer manufacturers, exposing results to supply disruption from those specific producers. Paper production also consumes significant electricity and natural gas, concentrated in the U.S. and Europe, where the company hedges a portion of future energy needs. Competitors include 3M Company and Ahlstrom Holding 3 Oy, among other specialty materials makers, with Mativ competing primarily on product features, innovation, quality and customer service rather than price alone.

Show full overview

Mativ's single manufacturing facility in China carries added political and operational risk, per the 10-K, given the need for government permits, evolving policy relations, and the uncertainty inherent in operating within an evolving legal and economic system there. Separately, the company discloses that trade actions taken by the U.S. government throughout 2025, including baseline and reciprocal tariffs on a large number of countries, have already increased its cost of goods sold and affected pricing and financial performance, with further tariff escalation or retaliatory measures posing additional risk to a company that imports raw materials subject to existing duties and quotas.

See also: Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

From Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 19, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26

Recent Developments — Mativ Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-09-26T16:02:03Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 52%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.3
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$658M
EV/EBITDA7.5
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE20.2%
Rev Growth1.2%
Beta0.92
Dividend3.36%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV58%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-01Item 5.02LOW
    Board expanded from 6 to 7 members and appointed Bruce Hausmann, CFO of Interface, Inc., as a Class I director effective July 1, 2026, with a term expiring at the 2029 Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved Amendment No. 2 to the 2024 Equity and Incentive Plan at the April 30, 2026 Annual Meeting, increasing authorized shares by 1,600,000 to a total of 6,700,000 shares.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Macd
1.9
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 7.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.71Resistance $12.74

Price Targets

$11
$18
A.Upside+49.7%
A.R:R7.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MATV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.36. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the MATV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.85 (+49.7% upside). Prior stop was $11.36. Stop-loss: $11.36.

What are the risks of investing in MATV?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Is MATV overvalued or undervalued?

Mativ Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.3 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MATV?

7 analysts cover MATV with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Mativ Holdings, Inc. do?Mativ Holdings is a global specialty materials manufacturer operating two segments — Filtration & Advanced Materials...

Mativ Holdings is a global specialty materials manufacturer operating two segments — Filtration & Advanced Materials (39% of 2025 revenue) and Sustainable & Adhesive Solutions (61%) — producing engineered nonwovens, films, tapes, liners and papers across 34 production locations in over 100 countries. The company generates approximately $2 billion in annual revenue with no single customer accounting for more than 10% of consolidated net sales and no product category exceeding 35% of total sales.

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